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IS rBr STILL BREATHING? THE REQUIRED BUSH % OF REFUSERS IS IMPOSSIBLE!

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-22-05 12:28 AM
Original message
IS rBr STILL BREATHING? THE REQUIRED BUSH % OF REFUSERS IS IMPOSSIBLE!
Edited on Sun May-22-05 12:34 AM by TruthIsAll
How implausible is the rBr hypothesis? 

This straightforward sensitivity analysis will show that rBr
is, well, a canard, a fiction which has no basis in reality.
Its only purpose is to provide a conjecture (other than fraud)
to explain away the discrepancies - even if the scientific
method is thrown overboard in the process. But the silent
scream of the numbers can no longer be ignored.

For Bush to end up with his state vote percentages, he needed
to pick up an impossible percentage of those who refused to be
exit-polled.

It's that simple.
KISS.

Let's look at the individual states, by region. 

We know the number of exit poll respondents for each state. We
will calculate the percentage of exit poll refusers that Bush
needed to carry to obtain his final 2-party state percentage
(just consider Bush and Kerry). 

The tables below display the percentage of Reluctant
Responders required for Bush to reach his actual vote count
from the state exit poll results.

For example, consider CT:
If we assume that 51% responded to the exit poll (872), then a
total of 1710 = 872/.51 were asked. Therefore 838 = 1710 - 872
refused.

For Bush to go from 41.53% in the poll to his recorded 44.76%
vote, he needed 51.86% of the 49% who refused. 

Obviously, as the response rate increases, the percentage  of
Bush refusers to reach his final state vote must also
increase. He needs a larger percentage of a smaller set of
refusers.

The input parameters to calculate RB, the Required Bush % of
Refusers are the following:

V= 44.76% (Bush 2-party vote)
N= 872 respondents
R= 51% response rate
T= 1710 total responders + refusers
NB = 362 = 872/.4153 (Bush Respondents)
NK = 872 - 362 = 510 (Kerry respondents) 

RB = (V*N/(1-R)-NB)/(N/R - N)

RB = 51.86% = (.4476 * 872/(1-.51) -362)/(872/.51 - 872)
RB = 51.86% = (.4476 * 1779.6 - 362) /(1709.8 - 872)
RB = 51.86% = 434.5/837.8




Percent of Reluctant Responders Required to Match Bush Vote
Count										
						Exit Poll Responders/Refusers					
	Sample	Exit	Bush 2-party	50%	51%	52%	53%	54%	55%	56%
EAST	Size	MoE	Poll	Vote	50%	49%	48%	47%	46%	45%	44%
CT	872	3.27%	41.53%	44.76%	48.00%	51.86%	56.04%	60.57%	65.49%	70.82%	76.63%
DC	795	1.92%	8.37%	9.37%	10.37%	11.19%	12.08%	13.04%	14.08%	15.22%	16.45%
DE	770	3.48%	41.56%	46.18%	50.81%	54.84%	59.21%	63.94%	69.07%	74.64%	80.69%
MA	889	3.10%	33.54%	37.30%	41.06%	44.32%	47.85%	51.67%	55.82%	60.32%	65.21%
MD	1000	3.07%	42.96%	43.75%	44.54%	48.22%	52.20%	56.52%	61.22%	66.32%	71.87%

ME	1968	2.20%	45.17%	45.52%	45.88%	49.68%	53.81%	58.29%	63.15%	68.43%	74.19%
NH	1849	2.27%	44.51%	49.32%	54.13%	58.43%	63.09%	68.14%	73.61%	79.55%	86.01%
NJ	1520	2.49%	43.87%	46.87%	49.87%	53.90%	58.26%	62.99%	68.11%	73.69%	79.74%
NY	1452	2.47%	36.04%	41.21%	46.38%	50.02%	53.96%	58.23%	62.86%	67.88%	73.33%
PA	1930	2.22%	45.59%	48.87%	52.15%	56.35%	60.91%	65.84%	71.19%	77.01%	83.33%

RI	809	3.30%	35.76%	39.52%	43.27%	46.72%	50.45%	54.49%	58.87%	63.62%	68.79%
VT	685	3.56%	34.31%	39.66%	45.01%	48.54%	52.35%	56.47%	60.94%	65.79%	71.06%
WV	1722	2.35%	54.81%	56.52%	58.24%	63.02%	68.20%	73.81%	79.91%	86.53%	93.74%

TOTAL	16261	0.78%	40.40%	43.91%	46.46%	50.22%	54.30%	58.71%	63.50%	68.71%	74.37%
											
	Sample	Exit	Bush 2-party	50%	51%	52%	53%	54%	55%	56%
MIDW	Size	MoE	Poll	Vote	50%	49%	48%	47%	46%	45%	44%
IA	2502	1.96%	49.33%	50.46%	51.59%	55.83%	60.44%	65.43%	70.86%	76.75%	83.17%
IL	1392	2.60%	42.87%	45.01%	47.15%	50.98%	55.14%	59.64%	64.53%	69.85%	75.62%
IN	926	3.17%	59.03%	60.54%	62.06%	67.16%	72.70%	78.70%	85.21%	92.29%	100.00%
KS	654	3.65%	65.40%	63.03%	60.66%	55.91%	51.52%	47.47%	43.72%	40.26%	37.05%
MI	2452	1.98%	47.45%	48.27%	49.08%	53.14%	57.53%	62.30%	67.47%	73.10%	79.22%

MN	2178	2.09%	45.39%	48.24%	51.08%	55.22%	59.70%	64.55%	69.82%	75.54%	81.76%
MO	2158	2.11%	52.53%	53.67%	54.82%	59.34%	64.23%	69.55%	75.31%	81.58%	88.40%
ND	649	3.63%	66.42%	63.91%	61.41%	56.59%	52.14%	48.04%	44.24%	40.73%	37.49%
NE	785	3.37%	63.46%	67.47%	71.48%	77.26%	83.52%	90.31%	97.68%	105.68%	114.39%
OH	1963	2.21%	47.94%	51.25%	54.56%	58.97%	63.74%	68.91%	74.51%	80.61%	87.23%

SD	1495	2.45%	62.58%	60.91%	59.24%	54.62%	50.36%	46.42%	42.78%	39.41%	36.29%
WI	2223	2.08%	49.79%	49.80%	49.82%	53.96%	58.46%	63.34%	68.65%	74.41%	80.69%

TOTAL	19377	0.72%	49.72%	51.32%	51.02%	55.28%	59.91%	64.92%	70.37%	76.30%	82.75%
											
	Sample	Exit	Bush 2-party	50%	51%	52%	53%	54%	55%	56%
SOUTH	Size	MoE	Poll	Vote	50%	49%	48%	47%	46%	45%	44%
AL	730	3.57%	58.92%	62.92%	66.92%	72.33%	78.18%	84.53%	91.41%	98.89%	107.02%
AR	1402	2.61%	53.07%	55.26%	57.45%	62.14%	67.23%	72.74%	78.72%	85.23%	92.30%
FL	2846	1.84%	50.07%	52.53%	54.99%	59.47%	64.32%	69.57%	75.28%	81.48%	88.22%
GA	1536	2.48%	56.89%	58.42%	59.95%	64.87%	70.22%	76.01%	82.30%	89.13%	96.57%
KY	1034	3.00%	59.25%	60.01%	60.77%	65.80%	71.25%	77.16%	83.59%	90.57%	98.17%

LA	1669	2.38%	55.51%	57.37%	59.24%	64.10%	69.36%	75.07%	81.26%	87.99%	95.32%
MS	798	3.44%	56.80%	60.09%	63.39%	68.53%	74.10%	80.13%	86.68%	93.80%	101.54%
NC	2167	2.10%	52.69%	56.29%	59.88%	64.72%	69.95%	75.63%	81.79%	88.48%	95.75%
OK	1539	2.38%	65.27%	65.56%	65.85%	71.32%	77.26%	83.70%	90.69%	98.29%	106.57%
SC	1735	2.34%	54.22%	58.70%	63.18%	68.25%	73.74%	79.69%	86.15%	93.16%	100.78%

TN	1774	2.29%	58.85%	57.22%	55.59%	51.26%	47.25%	43.56%	40.14%	36.97%	34.05%
TX	1671	2.31%	63.16%	61.51%	59.86%	55.19%	50.89%	46.91%	43.23%	39.82%	36.68%
VA	1431	2.59%	52.04%	54.35%	56.66%	61.28%	66.29%	71.72%	77.61%	84.01%	90.98%

TOTAL	20332	0.70%	56.25%	57.67%	59.29%	64.16%	69.44%	75.16%	81.38%	88.13%	95.48%
											
	Sample	Exit	Bush 2-party	50%	51%	52%	53%	54%	55%	56%
WEST	Size	MoE	Poll	Vote	50%	49%	48%	47%	46%	45%	44%
AK	910	3.18%	59.86%	63.83%	67.80%	73.28%	79.21%	85.65%	92.62%	100.20%	108.45%
AZ	1859	2.27%	53.40%	54.97%	56.54%	61.19%	66.22%	71.67%	77.60%	84.04%	91.04%
CA	1919	2.22%	44.27%	44.79%	45.32%	49.07%	53.14%	57.55%	62.35%	67.56%	73.23%
CO	2515	1.95%	50.93%	52.65%	54.37%	58.83%	63.66%	68.89%	74.58%	80.76%	87.48%
HI	499	4.38%	46.68%	45.63%	44.57%	41.11%	37.91%	34.95%	32.21%	29.68%	27.34%

ID	559	3.91%	66.67%	69.29%	71.92%	77.80%	84.17%	91.08%	98.57%	106.72%	115.59%
MT	640	3.78%	60.72%	60.50%	60.27%	55.63%	51.34%	47.38%	43.71%	40.31%	37.17%
NM	1951	2.22%	48.66%	50.58%	52.51%	56.80%	61.45%	66.50%	71.97%	77.92%	84.39%
NV	2116	2.13%	49.34%	51.33%	53.33%	57.69%	62.41%	67.53%	73.08%	79.12%	85.69%
OR	1064	3.00%	48.78%	48.03%	47.29%	43.62%	40.24%	37.11%	34.22%	31.54%	29.07%

UT	798	3.18%	70.07%	72.94%	75.81%	82.00%	88.71%	95.99%	103.88%	112.46%	121.80%
WA	2123	2.12%	44.93%	46.40%	47.87%	51.80%	56.05%	60.66%	65.67%	71.11%	77.03%
WY	684	3.50%	67.93%	70.30%	72.66%	78.62%	85.07%	92.06%	99.65%	107.90%	116.88%

TOTAL	17637	0.75%	48.19%	49.13%	46.37%	50.35%	54.67%	59.36%	64.46%	70.02%	76.07%

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tommcintyre Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-22-05 06:41 AM
Response to Original message
1. "How implausible is the rBr hypothesis? "
Statistically, can it go below zero? ;)
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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-22-05 07:08 AM
Response to Original message
2. huh?
Your formula says that a 3-point error in Utah is impossible with 56% turnout rate because it would require 122% Bush voters among refusers?

Something has gone wrong here. As I understand your logic, you would have 798 responders and 627 refusers to get the 56% response rate, totalling 1425 attempted interviews. About 559 of the 798 UT responders were Bush voters (70.1%). 1039 of the 1425 attempts should be Bush voters (72.9%). So 480 of the 627 refusers should be Bush voters, which is 76.6%, not 122%. Somehow, your table is way too sensitive to small changes in response rate.

(Something else is wrong even before we start. A 3-point error in a 798-person sample can't be "impossible" even if there were 100% response rate, because there is sampling error.)
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-22-05 09:11 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. There is nothing wrong with the formula.
Edited on Sun May-22-05 10:10 AM by TruthIsAll
If you can find an error, kudos to you.
If you cannot, I guess it just means it's impossible.

					CT			UT
V= Bush 2-party	            44.76%		   72.94%
N= respondents			      872			798
R= response rate			51%			54%
T= responders+refusers              1710			1478

BP= Bush 2-party poll	            41.53%		    70.07%
NB = Bush Resp	                     362			559
NK = Kerry Resp	               510			239
										
RB = (V*N/(1-R)-NB)/(N/R - N)	 

Solving for RB (required % of Refusers):

Required Refusers necessary for Bush vote:
RR=V*N/(1-R)-NB                       434			706

Total Refusers, based on response rate:
NR= N/R - N	                        838		     680

Percentage of Required Refusers:
RB = RR/NR =                       51.86%		   103.88%


								
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-22-05 10:59 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. The watch is ticking... still waiting, Prof.
Just curious.
You said you are a Professor.
Professor of...?
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-22-05 12:37 PM
Response to Reply #2
5. OTOH, KUDOS TO YOU. I FIXED THE TABLES
Edited on Sun May-22-05 12:55 PM by TruthIsAll
You caught me there.
Usually I catch them myself.
In fact, you are the second to do so.
At least the 50% column was right.

In any case, Bush had to do MUCH BETTER among refusers to make
up the differences, but not nearly as much as I originally
calculated.

In December I calculated the odds of Bush exceeding the MoE in
16 states. I had it at 1 in 200 trillion. A fellow DUer
pointed out an input parameter error in the normal
distribution Excel probability function.

The correct probability was 1 in 13.5 trillion. 
Clearly, I overstated the case.

	           Exit Poll Responders/Refusers					
                           50%	51%	55%	56%
				50%	49%	 45%	44%

				CT	CT	 UT	UT
V=  Bush Vote 	            44.76%	44.76% 72.94% 72.94%
N= respondents	               872	872	   798	798
R= response rate		50%	51%	   54%	56%

T = responders+refusers      1744 1710    1478 1425
BP= Bush 2-party poll	     41.53% 41.53% 70.07% 70.07%

NB = Bush Respondents	         362	362	559	559
NK = Kerry respondents	  510 510	239	239
												
RBT= REQ. TOTAL BUSH 	         781	765	1078	1039
NB = BUSH RESPONDENTS 	  362 362	559	559
RNB= REQ. BUSH REFUSERS	  419	403	519	480
NR = TOTAL REFUSERS           872 	838	680	627
RB = RNB/NR                48.00% 48.13% 76.31% 76.59%


************************************************************

Percent of Reluctant Responders Required to Match Bush Vote
Count										
					Exit Poll Responders/Refusers					
Sample	Exit	Bush 2-party		50%	51%	52%	53%	54%	55%	56%
EAST	Size	MoE	Poll	Vote	50%	49%	48%	47%	46%	45%	44%

CT	872	3.27%	41.53%	44.76%	48.00%	48.13%	48.27%	48.41%	48.56%	48.72%	48.88%
DC	795	1.92%	8.37%	9.37%	10.37%	10.41%	10.45%	10.50%	10.54%	10.59%	10.64%
DE	770	3.48%	41.56%	46.18%	50.81%	50.99%	51.19%	51.40%	51.61%	51.83%	52.07%
MA	889	3.10%	33.54%	37.30%	41.06%	41.21%	41.37%	41.54%	41.72%	41.90%	42.09%
MD	1000	3.07%	42.96%	43.75%	44.54%	44.57%	44.61%	44.64%	44.68%	44.72%	44.76%

ME	1968	2.20%	45.17%	45.52%	45.88%	45.89%	45.91%	45.92%	45.94%	45.95%	45.97%
NH	1849	2.27%	44.51%	49.32%	54.13%	54.32%	54.53%	54.74%	54.96%	55.20%	55.44%
NJ	1520	2.49%	43.87%	46.87%	49.87%	49.99%	50.12%	50.25%	50.39%	50.54%	50.69%
NY	1452	2.47%	36.04%	41.21%	46.38%	46.59%	46.81%	47.04%	47.28%	47.53%	47.79%
PA	1930	2.22%	45.59%	48.87%	52.15%	52.28%	52.42%	52.57%	52.72%	52.88%	53.04%

RI	809	3.30%	35.76%	39.52%	43.27%	43.43%	43.59%	43.75%	43.93%	44.11%	44.30%
VT	685	3.56%	34.31%	39.66%	45.01%	45.23%	45.46%	45.70%	45.94%	46.20%	46.47%
WV	1722	2.35%	54.81%	56.52%	58.24%	58.31%	58.38%	58.46%	58.54%	58.62%	58.71%

TOTAL	16261	0.78%	40.40%	43.91%	47.42%	47.57%	47.72%	47.87%	48.03%	48.20%	48.38%
											

Sample	Exit	Bush 2-party		50%	51%	52%	53%	54%	55%	56%
MIDW	Size	MoE	Poll	Vote	50%	49%	48%	47%	46%	45%	44%

IA	2502	1.96%	49.33%	50.46%	51.59%	51.63%	51.68%	51.73%	51.78%	51.84%	51.89%
IL	1392	2.60%	42.87%	45.01%	47.15%	47.23%	47.32%	47.42%	47.52%	47.62%	47.73%
IN	926	3.17%	59.03%	60.54%	62.06%	62.12%	62.18%	62.25%	62.32%	62.39%	62.47%
KS	654	3.65%	65.40%	63.03%	60.66%	60.57%	60.46%	60.36%	60.25%	60.14%	60.02%
MI	2452	1.98%	47.45%	48.27%	49.08%	49.12%	49.15%	49.19%	49.23%	49.26%	49.31%

MN	2178	2.09%	45.39%	48.24%	51.08%	51.20%	51.32%	51.45%	51.58%	51.72%	51.86%
MO	2158	2.11%	52.53%	53.67%	54.82%	54.87%	54.92%	54.97%	55.02%	55.08%	55.13%
ND	649	3.63%	66.42%	63.91%	61.41%	61.30%	61.20%	61.08%	60.97%	60.85%	60.72%
NE	785	3.37%	63.46%	67.47%	71.48%	71.64%	71.81%	71.99%	72.17%	72.37%	72.57%
OH	1963	2.21%	47.94%	51.25%	54.56%	54.70%	54.84%	54.98%	55.14%	55.30%	55.47%

SD	1495	2.45%	62.58%	60.91%	59.24%	59.17%	59.10%	59.03%	58.95%	58.87%	58.79%
WI	2223	2.08%	49.79%	49.80%	49.82%	49.82%	49.82%	49.82%	49.82%	49.82%	49.82%

TOTAL	19377	0.72%	49.72%	51.32%	52.92%	52.99%	53.06%	53.13%	53.20%	53.28%	53.36%
											
Sample	Exit	Bush 2-party		50%	51%	52%	53%	54%	55%	56%
SOUTH	Size	MoE	Poll	Vote	50%	49%	48%	47%	46%	45%	44%
AL	730	3.57%	58.92%	62.92%	66.92%	67.09%	67.26%	67.43%	67.62%	67.81%	68.02%
AR	1402	2.61%	53.07%	55.26%	57.45%	57.54%	57.63%	57.73%	57.83%	57.94%	58.05%
FL	2846	1.84%	50.07%	52.53%	54.99%	55.09%	55.20%	55.31%	55.42%	55.54%	55.66%
GA	1536	2.48%	56.89%	58.42%	59.95%	60.01%	60.07%	60.14%	60.21%	60.29%	60.36%
KY	1034	3.00%	59.25%	60.01%	60.77%	60.80%	60.83%	60.86%	60.90%	60.94%	60.97%

LA	1669	2.38%	55.51%	57.37%	59.24%	59.32%	59.40%	59.48%	59.57%	59.66%	59.75%
MS	798	3.44%	56.80%	60.09%	63.39%	63.53%	63.67%	63.81%	63.96%	64.12%	64.29%
NC	2167	2.10%	52.69%	56.29%	59.88%	60.03%	60.18%	60.34%	60.51%	60.68%	60.86%
OK	1539	2.38%	65.27%	65.56%	65.85%	65.86%	65.88%	65.89%	65.90%	65.92%	65.93%
SC	1735	2.34%	54.22%	58.70%	63.18%	63.36%	63.55%	63.75%	63.95%	64.17%	64.40%

TN	1774	2.29%	58.85%	57.22%	55.59%	55.53%	55.46%	55.39%	55.31%	55.23%	55.15%
TX	1671	2.31%	63.16%	61.51%	59.86%	59.79%	59.72%	59.65%	59.57%	59.49%	59.41%
VA	1431	2.59%	52.04%	54.35%	56.66%	56.76%	56.85%	56.96%	57.06%	57.17%	57.29%

TOTAL	20332	0.70%	56.25%	57.67%	59.09%	59.15%	59.21%	59.27%	59.34%	59.41%	59.48%
											
	Sample	Exit	Bush 2-party	50%	51%	52%	53%	54%	55%	56%
WEST	Size	MoE	Poll	Vote	50%	49%	48%	47%	46%	45%	44%
AK	910	3.18%	59.86%	63.83%	67.80%	67.96%	68.13%	68.31%	68.49%	68.68%	68.88%
AZ	1859	2.27%	53.40%	54.97%	56.54%	56.61%	56.67%	56.74%	56.81%	56.89%	56.97%
CA	1919	2.22%	44.27%	44.79%	45.32%	45.34%	45.36%	45.39%	45.41%	45.44%	45.46%
CO	2515	1.95%	50.93%	52.65%	54.37%	54.44%	54.52%	54.59%	54.67%	54.76%	54.84%
HI	499	4.38%	46.68%	45.63%	44.57%	44.53%	44.49%	44.44%	44.39%	44.34%	44.29%

ID	559	3.91%	66.67%	69.29%	71.92%	72.03%	72.14%	72.25%	72.38%	72.50%	72.64%
MT	640	3.78%	60.72%	60.50%	60.27%	60.26%	60.25%	60.24%	60.23%	60.22%	60.21%
NM	1951	2.22%	48.66%	50.58%	52.51%	52.59%	52.67%	52.76%	52.85%	52.94%	53.04%
NV	2116	2.13%	49.34%	51.33%	53.33%	53.41%	53.49%	53.58%	53.67%	53.77%	53.87%
OR	1064	3.00%	48.78%	48.03%	47.29%	47.25%	47.22%	47.19%	47.16%	47.12%	47.08%

UT	798	3.18%	70.07%	72.94%	75.81%	75.93%	76.05%	76.17%	76.31%	76.45%	76.59%
WA	2123	2.12%	44.93%	46.40%	47.87%	47.93%	47.99%	48.06%	48.13%	48.20%	48.27%
WY	684	3.50%	67.93%	70.30%	72.66%	72.76%	72.86%	72.97%	73.08%	73.19%	73.31%

TOTAL	17637	0.75%	48.19%	49.13%	50.07%	50.10%	50.14%	50.19%	50.23%	50.27%	50.32%
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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-22-05 01:37 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. kudos back
We all have Bad Spreadsheet Days.

I never noticed before that the overall errors seem to be highest in the northeast (obviously not in every state). Dunno if that "means" anything.

Since you asked: I'm a political scientist.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-22-05 01:49 PM
Response to Reply #6
8. It means that the THE BEAST WAS THE EAST.
Edited on Sun May-22-05 01:58 PM by TruthIsAll
In case you were unaware, ALL 22 states in the Eastern Time zine deviated to Bush from the exit polls, not just the 13 in the Eastern Region...

Image

Good strategy. Make it appear he's winning the popular vote early on.
Influence the sheep who don't know better.
Even though he was really losing big-time.

But it was not just the EAST. It was everywhere.
Since 42 of 50 states deviated to Bush, that means 20 of the other 28 states did also.

Lots of rBrs must have been spread out over every nook and cranny from sea to shining sea.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-22-05 01:56 PM
Response to Reply #8
9. THE EAST WAS THE BEAST: Exit Poll Deviation by Time Zone
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-22-05 01:37 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. DEVIATIONS FROM MOE & PROBABILITIES ASSUMING A 53% RESPONSE RATE
Edited on Sun May-22-05 01:41 PM by TruthIsAll
Percent Deviation from Exit Poll Required to Match Bush Vote
Count Includes corresponding Z-scores and
probabilities.									
					Exit Poll Responders/Refusers			

Zscore = number of standard deviations
      Z= %Dev/(MoE/1.96)
Prob = probability (Z)
	
	Sample	Exit	Bush 2-prty	50%	51%	52%	53%	Zscore	Prob
EAST	Size	MoE	Poll	Vote	50%	49%	48%	47%	StdDev	

CT	872	3.27%	41.53%	44.76%	6.47%	6.61%	6.74%	6.89%	1.07	14.13%
DC	795	1.92%	8.37%	9.37%	2.00%	2.04%	2.09%	2.13%	0.56	28.62%
DE	770	3.48%	41.56%	46.18%	9.24%	9.43%	9.63%	9.83%	1.44	7.47%
MA	889	3.10%	33.54%	37.30%	7.52%	7.68%	7.84%	8.00%	1.32	9.41%
MD	1000	3.07%	42.96%	43.75%	1.58%	1.61%	1.64%	1.68%	0.28	39.01%

ME	1968	2.20%	45.17%	45.52%	0.71%	0.72%	0.74%	0.76%	0.18	43.04%
NH	1849	2.27%	44.51%	49.32%	9.62%	9.82%	10.02%	10.24%	2.31	1.06%
NJ	1520	2.49%	43.87%	46.87%	6.00%	6.12%	6.25%	6.38%	1.30	9.60%
NY	1452	2.47%	36.04%	41.21%	10.34%	10.56%	10.78%	11.00%	2.27	1.15%
PA	1930	2.22%	45.59%	0.4887	6.56%	6.69%	6.83%	6.97%	1.60	5.46%

RI	809	3.30%	35.76%	0.39518	7.51%	7.66%	7.82%	7.99%	1.23	10.86%
VT	685	3.56%	34.31%	0.39664	10.70%	10.92%	11.15%	11.38%	1.63	5.12%
WV	1722	2.35%	54.81%	56.52%	3.43%	3.50%	3.58%	3.65%	0.79	21.39%

TOTAL	16261	0.78%	40.40%	43.91%	7.02%	7.17%	7.32%	7.47%	4.86	0.00%
										
	Sample	Exit	Bush 2-prty	50%	51%	52%	53%	Zscore	Prob
MIDW	Size	MoE	Poll	Vote	50%	49%	48%	47%	StDev	

IA	2502	1.96%	49.33%	50.46%	2.26%	2.30%	2.35%	2.40%	0.63	26.58%
IL	1392	2.60%	42.87%	45.01%	4.28%	4.36%	4.45%	4.55%	0.89	18.60%
IN	926	3.17%	59.03%	60.54%	3.03%	3.09%	3.15%	3.22%	0.52	30.19%
KS	654	3.65%	65.40%	63.03%	-4.74%	-4.83%	-4.93%	-5.04%	-0.71	24.04%
MI	2452	1.98%	47.45%	48.27%	1.63%	1.67%	1.70%	1.74%	0.45	32.68%

MN	2178	2.09%	45.39%	48.24%	5.70%	5.81%	5.93%	6.06%	1.48	6.96%
MO	2158	2.11%	52.53%	53.67%	2.30%	2.34%	2.39%	2.44%	0.59	27.71%
ND	649	3.63%	66.42%	63.91%	-5.02%	-5.12%	-5.23%	-5.34%	-0.75	22.67%
NE	785	3.37%	63.46%	0.67467	8.02%	8.18%	8.35%	8.53%	1.29	9.83%
OH	1963	2.21%	47.94%	0.51251	6.62%	6.76%	6.90%	7.04%	1.63	5.19%

SD	1495	2.45%	62.58%	0.60912	-3.34%	-3.41%	-3.48%	-3.56%	-0.74	22.88%
WI	2223	2.08%	49.79%	49.80%	0.03%	0.03%	0.03%	0.03%	0.01	49.69%

TOTAL	19377	0.72%	49.72%	51.32%	3.20%	3.26%	3.33%	3.40%	2.42	0.78%
										
	Sample	Exit	Bush 2-prty	50%	51%	52%	53%	Zscore	Prob
SOUTH	Size	MoE	Poll	Vote	50%	49%	48%	47%	StDev

AL	730	3.57%	58.92%	62.92%	8.00%	8.17%	8.34%	8.51%	1.22	11.18%
AR	1402	2.61%	53.07%	55.26%	4.38%	4.47%	4.56%	4.66%	0.91	18.13%
FL	2846	1.84%	50.07%	52.53%	4.92%	5.02%	5.13%	5.24%	1.45	7.29%
GA	1536	2.48%	56.89%	58.42%	3.06%	3.12%	3.18%	3.25%	0.67	25.15%
KY	1034	3.00%	59.25%	60.01%	1.52%	1.55%	1.59%	1.62%	0.28	39.13%

LA	1669	2.38%	55.51%	57.37%	3.74%	3.81%	3.89%	3.98%	0.85	19.74%
MS	798	3.44%	56.80%	60.09%	6.59%	6.73%	6.87%	7.01%	1.04	14.89%
NC	2167	2.10%	52.69%	56.29%	7.19%	7.34%	7.49%	7.65%	1.86	3.16%
OK	1539	2.38%	65.27%	65.56%	0.58%	0.59%	0.60%	0.61%	0.13	44.75%
SC	1735	2.34%	54.22%	0.58695	8.96%	9.14%	9.33%	9.53%	2.07	1.90%

TN	1774	2.29%	58.85%	0.5722	-3.25%	-3.32%	-3.39%	-3.46%	-0.77	22.03%
TX	1671	2.31%	63.16%	0.6151	-3.30%	-3.37%	-3.44%	-3.51%	-0.78	21.91%
VA	1431	2.59%	52.04%	54.35%	4.62%	4.71%	4.81%	4.91%	0.97	16.63%

TOTAL	20332	0.70%	56.25%	57.67%	2.84%	2.90%	2.96%	3.02%	2.20	1.39%
										
	Sample	Exit	Bush 2-prty	50%	51%	52%	53%	Zscore	Prob
WEST	Size	MoE	Poll	Vote	50%	49%	48%	47%	StDev	

AK	910	3.18%	59.86%	63.83%	7.94%	8.10%	8.27%	8.45%	1.35	8.80%
AZ	1859	2.27%	53.40%	54.97%	3.14%	3.20%	3.27%	3.34%	0.75	22.63%
CA	1919	2.22%	44.27%	44.79%	1.05%	1.07%	1.10%	1.12%	0.26	39.86%
CO	2515	1.95%	50.93%	52.65%	3.45%	3.52%	3.59%	3.67%	0.96	16.92%
HI	499	4.38%	46.68%	45.63%	-2.11%	-2.15%	-2.19%	-2.24%	-0.26	39.70%

ID	559	3.91%	66.67%	69.29%	5.25%	5.36%	5.47%	5.59%	0.73	23.29%
MT	640	3.78%	60.72%	60.50%	-0.45%	-0.46%	-0.46%	-0.47%	-0.06	52.55%
NM	1951	2.22%	48.66%	50.58%	3.85%	3.93%	4.01%	4.10%	0.94	17.28%
NV	2116	2.13%	49.34%	51.33%	3.99%	4.07%	4.15%	4.24%	1.02	15.48%
OR	1064	3.00%	48.78%	48.03%	-1.49%	-1.52%	-1.55%	-1.59%	-0.27	39.37%

UT	798	3.18%	70.07%	72.94%	5.74%	5.86%	5.98%	6.10%	0.98	16.35%
WA	2123	2.12%	44.93%	46.40%	2.94%	3.00%	3.06%	3.12%	0.75	22.57%
WY	684	3.50%	67.93%	70.30%	4.74%	4.83%	4.93%	5.04%	0.73	23.12%

TOTAL	17637	0.75%	48.19%	49.13%	1.87%	1.91%	1.95%	1.99%	1.35	8.87%
										
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 06:50 AM
Response to Reply #7
11. The Zscores are too low - HERE ARE THE CORRECT NUMBERS
Edited on Mon May-23-05 07:26 AM by TruthIsAll
THE EAST WAS THE rBr BEAST
'http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x371776

Percent of Reluctant Responders Required to Match Bush Vote
Count						
	Sample	Exit	Bush 2-party	50%	53%	              56%		
Region	Size	MoE	Poll	Vote	50%	47%	Z	1in	44%      Z  1in

EAST	16261	0.78%	40.40%	43.91%	47.42%	47.87%	9.53	NC	48.38%	10.18	NC
MIDW	19377	0.72%	49.72%	51.32%	52.92%	53.13%	4.74	915K	53.36%	5.06	4,730,234
SOUTH	20332	0.70%	56.25%	57.67%	59.09%	59.27%	4.31	123K	59.48%	4.61	488,097
WEST	17637	0.75%	48.19%	49.13%	50.07%	50.19%	2.64	244	50.32%	2.82	422

********************************************************											
Percent Deviation from Exit Poll Required to Match Bush Vote
Count 										
EAST	16261	0.78%	40.40%	43.91%	7.02%	7.47%	9.53	NC	7.98%	10.18	NC
MIDW	19377	0.72%	49.72%	51.32%	3.20%	3.40%	4.74	915K	3.63%	5.06	4,730,234
SOUTH	20332	0.70%	56.25%	57.67%	2.84%	3.02%	4.31	123K	3.23%	4.61	488,097
WEST	17637	0.75%	48.19%	49.13%	1.87%	1.99%	2.64	244	2.13%	2.82	422

*********************************************************

Percent Deviation from Exit Poll Required to Match Bush Vote
Count with corresponding Z-scores										
					Exit Poll Responders/Refusers						
	Sample	Exit	Bush 2-party	50%	53%			56%		
EAST	Size	MoE	Poll	Vote	50%	47%	Z	Prob	44%	Zscore	Prob

CT	872	3.27%	41.53%	44.76%	6.47%	6.89%	2.11	1.76%	7.36%	2.25	1.22%
DC	795	1.92%	8.37%	9.37%	2.00%	2.13%	1.11	13.43%	2.27%	1.18	11.86%
DE	770	3.48%	41.56%	46.18%	9.24%	9.83%	2.83	0.24%	10.50%	3.02	0.13%
MA	889	3.10%	33.54%	37.30%	7.52%	8.00%	2.58	0.50%	8.55%	2.75	0.29%
MD	1000	3.07%	42.96%	43.75%	1.58%	1.68%	0.55	29.21%	1.79%	0.58	27.95%

ME	1968	2.20%	45.17%	45.52%	0.71%	0.76%	0.34	36.56%	0.81%	0.37	35.68%
NH	1849	2.27%	44.51%	49.32%	9.62%	10.24%	4.52	0.00%	10.93%	4.83	0.00%
NJ	1520	2.49%	43.87%	46.87%	6.00%	6.38%	2.56	0.53%	6.82%	2.73	0.31%
NY	1452	2.47%	36.04%	41.21%	10.34%	11.00%	4.46	0.00%	11.75%	4.76	0.00%
PA	1930	2.22%	45.59%	48.87%	6.56%	6.97%	3.14	0.08%	7.45%	3.35	0.04%

RI	809	3.30%	35.76%	39.52%	7.51%	7.99%	2.42	0.78%	8.53%	2.58	0.49%
VT	685	3.56%	34.31%	39.66%	10.70%	11.38%	3.20	0.07%	12.16%	3.42	0.03%
WV	1722	2.35%	54.81%	56.52%	3.43%	3.65%	1.55	6.01%	3.90%	1.66	4.85%

TOTAL	16261	0.78%	40.40%	43.91%	7.02%	7.47%	9.53	0.00%	7.98%	10.18	0.00%

*********************************************************

	Sample	Exit	Bush 2-party	50%	53%			56%		
MIDW	Size	MoE	Poll	Vote	50%	47%	Z	Prob	44%	Zscore	Prob

IA	2502	1.96%	49.33%	50.46%	2.26%	2.40%	1.23	11.01%	2.57%	1.31	9.5%
IL	1392	2.60%	42.87%	45.01%	4.28%	4.55%	1.75	4.01%	4.86%	1.87	3.1%
IN	926	3.17%	59.03%	60.54%	3.03%	3.22%	1.02	15.46%	3.44%	1.09	13.9%
KS	654	3.65%	65.40%	63.03%	-4.74%	-5.04%	-1.38	8.35%	-5.38%	-1.48	7.0%
MI	2452	1.98%	47.45%	48.27%	1.63%	1.74%	0.88	18.96%	1.86%	0.94	17.4%

MN	2178	2.09%	45.39%	48.24%	5.70%	6.06%	2.90	0.19%	6.47%	3.10	0.1%
MO	2158	2.11%	52.53%	53.67%	2.30%	2.44%	1.16	12.32%	2.61%	1.24	10.8%
ND	649	3.63%	66.42%	63.91%	-5.02%	-5.34%	-1.47	7.09%	-5.70%	-1.57	5.8%
NE	785	3.37%	63.46%	67.47%	8.02%	8.53%	2.53	0.57%	9.11%	2.70	0.3%
OH	1963	2.21%	47.94%	51.25%	6.62%	7.04%	3.19	0.07%	7.53%	3.40	0.0%

SD	1495	2.45%	62.58%	60.91%	-3.34%	-3.56%	-1.45	7.36%	-3.80%	-1.55	6.1%
WI	2223	2.08%	49.79%	49.80%	0.03%	0.03%	0.02	49.39%	0.03%	0.02	49.3%

TOTAL	19377	0.72%	49.72%	51.32%	3.20%	3.40%	4.74	0.0001%	3.63%	5.06	0.0%
							1 in	915,572 1 in 4,730,234

*********************************************************

	Sample	Exit	Bush 2-party	50%	53%			56%		
SOUTH	Size	MoE	Poll	Vote	50%	47%	Z	Prob	44%	Zscore	Prob

AL	730	3.57%	58.92%	62.92%	8.00%	8.51%	2.39	0.85%	9.10%	2.55	0.5%
AR	1402	2.61%	53.07%	55.26%	4.38%	4.66%	1.78	3.72%	4.98%	1.91	2.8%
FL	2846	1.84%	50.07%	52.53%	4.92%	5.24%	2.85	0.22%	5.59%	3.04	0.1%
GA	1536	2.48%	56.89%	58.42%	3.06%	3.25%	1.31	9.46%	3.47%	1.40	8.0%
KY	1034	3.00%	59.25%	60.01%	1.52%	1.62%	0.54	29.44%	1.73%	0.58	28.2%

LA	1669	2.38%	55.51%	57.37%	3.74%	3.98%	1.67	4.77%	4.25%	1.78	3.7%
MS	798	3.44%	56.80%	60.09%	6.59%	7.01%	2.04	2.06%	7.49%	2.18	1.5%
NC	2167	2.10%	52.69%	56.29%	7.19%	7.65%	3.64	0.01%	8.17%	3.89	0.0%
OK	1539	2.38%	65.27%	65.56%	0.58%	0.61%	0.26	39.80%	0.66%	0.28	39.1%
SC	1735	2.34%	54.22%	58.70%	8.96%	9.53%	4.07	0.00%	10.18%	4.34	0.0%

TN	1774	2.29%	58.85%	57.22%	-3.25%	-3.46%	-1.51	6.53%	-3.70%	-1.61	5.3%
TX	1671	2.31%	63.16%	61.51%	-3.30%	-3.51%	-1.52	6.43%	-3.75%	-1.62	5.2%
VA	1431	2.59%	52.04%	54.35%	4.62%	4.91%	1.90	2.88%	5.25%	2.03	2.1%

TOTAL	20332	0.70%	56.25%	57.67%	2.84%	3.02%	4.31	0.0008%	3.23%	4.61	0.0%
							1 in	123,840	  1 in 488,097

*********************************************************

	Sample	Exit	Bush 2-party	50%	53%			56%		
WEST	Size	MoE	Poll	Vote	50%	47%	Z	Prob	44%	Zscore	Prob

AK	910	3.18%	59.86%	63.83%	7.94%	8.45%	2.65	0.40%	9.02%	2.83	0.2%
AZ	1859	2.27%	53.40%	54.97%	3.14%	3.34%	1.47	7.05%	3.57%	1.57	5.8%
CA	1919	2.22%	44.27%	44.79%	1.05%	1.12%	0.50	30.73%	1.20%	0.54	29.5%
CO	2515	1.95%	50.93%	52.65%	3.45%	3.67%	1.88	3.03%	3.92%	2.00	2.3%
HI	499	4.38%	46.68%	45.63%	-2.11%	-2.24%	-0.51	30.44%	-2.39%	-0.55	29.2%

ID	559	3.91%	66.67%	69.29%	5.25%	5.59%	1.43	7.64%	5.97%	1.53	6.3%
MT	640	3.78%	60.72%	60.50%	-0.45%	-0.47%	-0.13	45.01%	-0.51%	-0.13	44.7%
NM	1951	2.22%	48.66%	50.58%	3.85%	4.10%	1.85	3.23%	4.38%	1.97	2.4%
NV	2116	2.13%	49.34%	51.33%	3.99%	4.24%	1.99	2.32%	4.53%	2.13	1.7%
OR	1064	3.00%	48.78%	48.03%	-1.49%	-1.59%	-0.53	29.86%	-1.70%	-0.56	28.6%

UT	798	3.18%	70.07%	72.94%	5.74%	6.10%	1.92	2.74%	6.52%	2.05	2.0%
WA	2123	2.12%	44.93%	46.40%	2.94%	3.12%	1.48	7.00%	3.34%	1.58	5.7%
WY	684	3.50%	67.93%	70.30%	4.74%	5.04%	1.44	7.49%	5.38%	1.54	6.2%

TOTAL	17637	0.75%	48.19%	49.13%	1.87%	1.99%	2.64	0.41%	2.13%	2.82	0.2%
						      1 in	244	    1 in	422
											
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