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THE 13047 NATIONAL EXIT POLL CONFIRMS THE STATE EXIT POLLS (WITHIN .06%) !

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-24-05 10:15 PM
Original message
THE 13047 NATIONAL EXIT POLL CONFIRMS THE STATE EXIT POLLS (WITHIN .06%) !
Edited on Sun Apr-24-05 10:44 PM by TruthIsAll
This analysis will show that State exit poll data (73607
respondents) posted at 12:22am, confirms the results of the
National Exit Poll (13047 respondents), also posted at
12:22am.These results were derived independently. 

Kerry won the National Exit poll with 50.84% of the vote. He
won the state exit polls, re-weighted by the number of state
voters, with 50.90%. 

Calculating the percentage based on the 13047 National Exit
Poll regional weightings was straightforward. The weighted
Kerry percentage based on the state exit polls was more
involved. The actual share of exit poll respondents for each
state needed to be determined, by re-weighting the exit poll
to the total regional vote.

For example, calculate Kerry's CT exit poll share:
1)There were N= 872 CT exit poll respondents out of 16261
total respondents in the Eastern region, or 5.363%.

2)There were 1.551 million CT votes out of the 26.854 million
who voted in the East, or 5.776%.

3) The weighting factor WF = 5.776/5.363 = 1.077

4) Kerry won KP = 58.47%, or 510 of the 872 Exit Poll
respondents.
 
5) Now calculate KW = Kerry's re-weighted exit poll: 

       KW = KP * N * WF
       KW = 58.474% * 872 * 1.077 = 549

Corresponding state exit poll results are calculated for all
the states and DC. The final sum (37466) is divided by the
total number of state exit poll respondents (73607)to derive
KWP, Kerry's state-weighted NATIONAL vote: 

       KWP = 50.90% = 37466/ 73607


.........................................................

STATE EXIT POLL
73607 RESPONDENTS
12:22am				

STATE EXIT POLL REGIONAL SUMMARY
Region	Kerry	Exit	Vote/	Kerry
State	Pct	Size	Exit	Exit

EAST	59.60%	16261	165.1%	9691
MIDW	50.28%	19377	158.3%	9742
SOUTH	43.75%	20332	192.0%	8895
WEST	51.81%	17637	138.9%	9137
				
TOTAL	50.90%	73607	164.5%	37466
				


NATIONAL EXIT POLL 
13047 RESPONDENTS				
12:22am

Region  Pct	Bush	Kerry	Nader

EAST	  22%	41%	58%	1%
MIDW	  26%	49%	50%	1%
SOUTH	  31%	54%	45%	1%
WEST	  21%	45%	53%	1%

TOTAL	100.0%	47.95%	50.84%	1.00%
VOTES(mm)	58046	61544	1211

............................................................

STATE EXIT POLL DATA
(re-weighted to total state vote)

Region	Kerry	Exit	Vote/	Kerry
State	Pct	Size	Exit	Exit

EAST	59.60%	16261	165.1%	9691

CT	58.47%	872	107.7%	549
DC	91.63%	795	28.3%	206
DE	58.44%	770	17.6%	79
MA	66.46%	889	195.8%	1157
MD	57.04%	1000	142.8%	815
ME	54.83%	1968	22.4%	241
NH	55.50%	1849	22.0%	226
NJ	56.13%	1520	142.7%	1217
NY	63.97%	1452	303.5%	2819
PA	54.41%	1930	179.8%	1888
RI	64.24%	809	32.1%	167
VT	65.69%	685	27.0%	121
WV	45.19%	1722	26.4%	205
				
				
MIDW	50.28%	19377	158.3%	9742

IA	50.67%	2502	37.7%	478
IL	57.13%	1392	237.7%	1891
IN	40.97%	926	167.0%	634
KS	34.60%	654	113.1%	256
MI	52.55%	2452	123.5%	1591
MN	54.61%	2178	81.0%	963
MO	47.48%	2158	79.5%	814
ND	33.58%	649	30.0%	65
NE	36.54%	785	61.7%	177
OH	52.06%	1963	180.2%	1841
SD	37.42%	1495	16.1%	90
WI	50.21%	2223	84.3%	941
				
SOUTH	43.75%	20332	192.0%	8895

AL	41.08%	730	133.4%	400
AR	46.93%	1402	74.2%	488
FL	49.93%	2846	138.1%	1963
GA	43.11%	1536	111.2%	737
KY	40.76%	1034	89.8%	378
LA	44.50%	1669	60.0%	445
MS	43.20%	798	73.8%	254
NC	47.31%	2167	83.8%	859
OK	34.73%	1539	49.5%	265
SC	45.79%	1735	48.0%	382
TN	41.15%	1774	71.1%	519
TX	36.84%	1671	229.4%	1412
VA	47.96%	1431	115.5%	792
				

WEST	51.81%	17637	138.9%	9137

AK	40.14%	910	23.9%	87
AZ	46.60%	1859	40.4%	350
CA	55.73%	1919	459.9%	4919
CO	49.07%	2515	60.2%	743
HI	53.32%	499	61.5%	164
ID	33.33%	559	76.0%	142
MT	39.28%	640	49.5%	124
NM	51.34%	1951	27.6%	277
NV	50.66%	2116	27.8%	298
OR	51.22%	1064	122.5%	668
UT	29.93%	798	81.7%	195
WA	55.07%	2123	95.5%	1116
WY	32.07%	684	25.1%	55
				
				
				
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Botany Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-24-05 10:20 PM
Response to Original message
1. U DAAA MAN!
TIA thank you.

I think one of the more damning exit polls #s are the fact they hit all the other
races ........
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Bill Bored Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-24-05 10:23 PM
Response to Original message
2. What took you so long?
Edited on Sun Apr-24-05 10:25 PM by Bill Bored
I've been asking for this since New Year's Eve!
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-24-05 10:38 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. I believe I have run similar numbers in the past, but never broke them
out by region - I only found the regional groups on DU yesterday.
I decided to compare the states by region vs. the same NEP category.
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torque Donating Member (167 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-25-05 01:52 AM
Response to Reply #4
6. This breakout is certainly one of the more compelling
"Smoking Guns". Great work, TIA.
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Bill Bored Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-26-05 12:19 AM
Response to Reply #4
16. Still a little confused.
The regionals, which I think AltheCat obtained on New Year's Eve, were only based on the national poll. You have state numbers from around midnight based on the large 73,000 sample which also sampled many more polling places? So I'm not sure why it was necessary to weight against the regionals. I'm happy to see that the results of the larger sample, with the states weighted, matches the smaller one. So why did you need the regions?
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-26-05 08:06 AM
Response to Reply #16
20. Don't be confused.
I used the regionals because I wanted to compare the individual states, adjusted to regional weighting, to the NEP regional demographic.

Apples and Apples.



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DELUSIONAL Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-24-05 10:37 PM
Response to Original message
3. Kick
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kster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-25-05 12:16 AM
Response to Original message
5. kick nt
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GetTheRightVote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-25-05 03:55 AM
Response to Original message
7. Keep up the good work with the numbers
:kick:
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-25-05 09:08 AM
Response to Original message
8. So there are three types of Weighting....
Edited on Mon Apr-25-05 09:11 AM by TruthIsAll
The first makes sense.
The second does, but only if...
The third makes no sense.


1- Weighting the exit poll sample to proportionately match the NUMBER of voters.

This makes sense.

For example, there were 872 CT respondents (of the 16261 total regional respondents, or 5.363%).

There were 1.551 million CT votes out of the 26.854 million who voted in the East, or 5.776%.

The weighting factor WF = 5.776/5.363 = 1.077

Kerry won CT Exit Poll with 58.47% (510 of the 872 Exit Poll
respondents).

Kerry's re-weighted exit poll percentage is:
KW = KP * N * WF
KW = 58.474% * 872 * 1.077 = 549


2- Weighting to match the voter DEMOGRAPHICS (Male/Female = 46/54).

This makes sense, IF the weightings TRULY reflect reality.

For example, we know that it was IMPOSSIBLE for 43% of 2004 voters to have voted for Bush in 2000. The MAXIMUM weight possible was 39%.
So in this case the weighting made no sense.


3- Weighting to match th recorded vote (adjust Kerry share of NEW voters, from 57-41 of first 13047 respondents to 54-45 for the 13660 Final).

This makes NO sense to me.
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LightningFlash Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-08-05 03:58 AM
Response to Reply #8
31. There was fraud, period.
The Cencus results have become the smoking gun that proves it. The question remaining is if Kerry won just barely, which is possible, or he won by a huge amount and the popular vote because there was systematic fraud and strewn about sampling bias.
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bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-25-05 06:24 PM
Response to Original message
9. National exit polls that showed Kerry the winner are backed up
by independent state polls.


Is that the bullet point on this? This will incorporate easily into the everyman conversation on the stolen election of 2004.
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davidgmills Donating Member (651 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-25-05 07:59 PM
Response to Original message
10. Keep the numbers coming
They may criticise your assumptions, but they never criticise the numbers.

Let the numbers do the talking.
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-25-05 09:59 PM
Response to Reply #10
12. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
dzika Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-25-05 10:28 PM
Response to Reply #12
13. Isn't this analysis a comparison of the State and National exit polls?
It doesn't seem like the 2000 vote would be needed for this comparison.
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-25-05 10:42 PM
Response to Reply #13
14. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
Melissa G Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-25-05 09:50 PM
Response to Original message
11. Thanks TIA! n/t
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pazarus Donating Member (247 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-26-05 12:01 AM
Response to Original message
15. my god
i know a little math, and a little statistics...

If previous state and national exit polling was accurate to within the margin of error, then we have election fraud. If the sample chosen has in the past been proven to be an accurate sampling, as exit polls try to be, then there has been fraud. In a sample this size its just not feasible that there were repeated exit poll mistakes. Has anyone calculated the probability that the 'actual' number would be what it is based on the exit polls? I bet it's less than one in ten thousand.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-26-05 06:45 AM
Response to Reply #15
19. THE PROBABILITIES ARE....
Edited on Tue Apr-26-05 07:19 AM by TruthIsAll
In Excel:
Prob =NORMDIST(X, Mean, Stdev, Cumulative)

Stdev = sqrt(p*q/n)/1.96
p= Kerry% =.508
q =Bush% = 1-p=.492
n= number of national exit poll respondents = 13047

Stdev = sqrt(p*q/n) =.4999/sqrt(n)=.4999/114.22 =.004368

TRUE = Cumulative normal distribution function

KERRY
Prob =NORMDIST(0.4828,0.5084,0.00437,TRUE)
1 in 425,854,486


Exit: 62.157mm votes
Actual:59.027
Diff: 3.130

BUSH
Prob =NORMDIST(.4790,.5073,0.00437,TRUE)
1 in 19,728,877,415

Actual:62.022mm votes
Exit: 58.563
Diff: 3.460

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pazarus Donating Member (247 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-27-05 05:02 AM
Response to Reply #19
26. that is just... amazing
its even lower than i thoght it would be.

1 in 19 billion!!!???

This story isn't dead. It's only a matter of time and it happening again.
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Nothing Without Hope Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-26-05 01:03 AM
Response to Original message
17. How is this result being publicized? It seems compelling
Every way you calculate it, each new set of raw data, all say Kerry WON.
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MontageOfFreedom Donating Member (633 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-26-05 01:41 AM
Response to Original message
18. This is truly one of the most amazing exit poll reports I have seen.
Edited on Tue Apr-26-05 01:42 AM by MontageOfFreedom
It shows even for the skeptics like myself, how inaccurate exit poll interviews could not have accounted for this degree of fudging.

It also shows that the only plausible explanation is a system shot through with fraud, and machines which were made to malfunction.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-26-05 11:41 AM
Response to Reply #18
21. Montage, I see that some replies have been deleted by the mods.
Edited on Tue Apr-26-05 11:51 AM by TruthIsAll
I did not see the posts.

The naysayers are coming out in force. That means the analysis is solid. They must have been agitated and resorted to their usual personal attacks.

We'll just let the numbers speak for themselves.
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MontageOfFreedom Donating Member (633 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-26-05 04:57 PM
Response to Reply #21
24. Indeed the scream of numbers speak louder than words. n/t
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bejammin075 Donating Member (302 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-26-05 01:13 PM
Response to Original message
22. What's the MOE on a 86,654 person sample size?
It seems like the margin of error on such a mammoth sample size would be very very small...
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-26-05 02:10 PM
Response to Reply #22
23. The MoE =0.33% for 86654, but each state is separate sample..
Edited on Tue Apr-26-05 02:13 PM by TruthIsAll
MoE= 0.98/SQRT(86654) = 0.33%

For FL, MoE = .98/sqrt(2846)= 1.84%
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Botany Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-26-05 05:34 PM
Response to Original message
25. Kick
:kick:
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-05-05 06:53 PM
Response to Original message
27. Yes, Febble, to within 0.06%....
/
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-20-05 07:01 AM
Response to Original message
28. Go ahead, Compare them. n/t
/
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dchill Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-07-05 05:04 PM
Response to Original message
29. Kick
for TIA
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-08-05 03:44 AM
Response to Reply #29
30. dchill, Good DUer that you are! KICK
:kick:
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-08-05 06:51 AM
Response to Original message
32. SOUTH was padded at the expense of the WEST.
Edited on Wed Jun-08-05 06:52 AM by TruthIsAll
Notice the discrepancy in the State  vs. National weights
(total regional pct)

The EAST and MIDWEST agree.

But the SOUTH was padded at the expense of the WEST.

STATE EXIT POLL
73607 RESPONDENTS
12:22am				

STATE EXIT POLL REGIONAL SUMMARY
Region	Kerry	Exit	Vote/	Kerry
State	Pct	Size	Exit	Exit PctTotal
EAST	59.60%	16261	165.1%	9691	22.09%
MIDW	50.28%	19377	158.3%	9742	26.32%
SOUTH	43.75%	20332	192.0%	8895	27.62%
WEST	51.81%	17637	138.9%	9137	23.96%
					
TOTAL	50.90%	73607	164.5%	37466	100.00%


NATIONAL EXIT POLL 
13047 RESPONDENTS				
12:22am

Region  Pct	Bush	Kerry	Nader

EAST	  22%	41%	58%	1%
MIDW	  26%	49%	50%	1%
SOUTH	  31%	54%	45%	1%
WEST	  21%	45%	53%	1%

TOTAL	100.0%	47.95%	50.84%	1.00%
VOTES(mm)	58046	61544	1211


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kster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-14-05 10:58 PM
Response to Reply #32
33. kick.nt
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