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Another Exit Poll Mystery: Party ID. Can you solve it?

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-02-05 02:04 PM
Original message
Another Exit Poll Mystery: Party ID. Can you solve it?
Edited on Sat Apr-02-05 02:52 PM by TruthIsAll
In the Preliminary Exit Poll of 13047, which Kerry won by 51-48%,
the Party ID weighting was:
Dem - 38%
Rep - 35%
Ind - 27%

These were the Party ID weightings in the FINAL EXIT POLLS of 1996 and 2000:

1996 - Clinton won the popular vote
Dem - 39.4%
Rep - 34.7%
Ind - 25.9%

2000 - Gore won the popular vote
Dem - 39%
Rep - 35%
Ind - 26%

In the 2004 FINAL EXIT POLL of 13660, which Bush won by 51-48%,
the Party ID weighting was:
Dem - 37%
Rep - 37%
Ind - 26%

In the change from 38/35/27 in the 2004 Preliminary to 37/27/26 in the Final, we have:

1 Democrat out of 38 (2.6%) switched to Republican.
1 Independent out of 27 (3.7%) switched to Republican.

Are we to believe these switches, when every exit poll prior to the FINAL in 2004 indicated otherwise?

Now, correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the weighting mix based on statistical data and historic trends? If that is the case, based on 1996-2000, all final weights pointed to a 4% Democratic advantage.

What happened to change this trend between 2000 and 2004?

Furthermore, we know that New voters went to Kerry from
59-39% in Preliminary Exit Poll 1 (11027 respondents, 7:38pm) to
57-41% in Exit Poll 2 (13047, 12:22 am) to
54-45% in the Final (13660, 2:05pm).

Were these New Voters for Kerry Republicans, Democrats or Independents?

We also know that Independents favored Kerry, by
52-45% in the preliminary polls and
49-48% in the FINAL.

So why would 3.7% switch Party-ID from Independent to Republican and still vote for Kerry?

If in 2000 the Party ID mix was 39/35/26, and in the preliminary 2004 Exit Poll it was 38/35/27, how could it change to 37/37/26?

The demographics fropm 1996 indicated otherwise.
The demographics fropm 2000 indicated otherwise.
The majority of 21 million + of New Voters voted for Kerry.
The majority of 33 million Independents voted for Kerry.

Anyone care to take a stab at explaining this one?

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Botany Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-02-05 02:10 PM
Response to Original message
1. Anyone care to take a stab at explaining this one?
Yes, they cheated.

How about this one? In all precincts in Delaware, OH (25 miles north of Columbus)
that voted for Gore in 2000 the same precincts went to bush in 2004. Despite the
fact that MORE democrats had registered in those precincts (the % of democrats
as ratio of voters in those precinct rose).

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-02-05 03:10 PM
Response to Original message
2. Too late to Edit:
The demographics FROM 1996 indicated otherwise.
The demographics FROM 2000 indicated otherwise
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-02-05 03:17 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. How did he lose?
A majority (54-59%) of 21 million+ of New Voters voted for Kerry.
A majority (49-52%) of 33 million Independents voted for Kerry.
A majority (90-92%) of 46 million Democrats voted for Kerry.
A majority (65-71%) of 3 million Naderites voted for Kerry.

A minority (8-10%) of Republicans voted for Kerry.

So how did he lose?



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FtWayneBlue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-02-05 03:23 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. Because the Republicans counted the votes. n/t
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DELUSIONAL Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-02-05 03:26 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. Kerry didn't lose --
The vote totals were manipulated by Rove Inc.

No matter what (including losing the election) Rove was going to make sure that bushie won by a "landslide".

But the internal numbers -- don't match up with the "final" results.

Kerry didn't lose -- but he didn't have the balls to fight and keep fighting.

Sorry Kerry fans -- but the truth is the truth. Next time if his name is listed in the Democratic slot for Prez -- I will vote for him. And he will do the same exact thing -- crap out BEFORE all the votes are counted and start kissing whoever Rove runs for Prez in 2008.

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kster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-02-05 04:10 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. Think positive
we will have everything settled in the voting booths before 2008,Kerry fighting then would have just got in the way,Kerry fighting after he/we make the case for him makes more sense.

I think soon his ducks will be in the row he wants them to be in,then Kerry/Edwards both will come out swinging.
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L. Coyote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-03-05 03:09 PM
Response to Reply #5
9. Is Rove your North/Poindexter fall guy? Why not blame the boss? n/t
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DELUSIONAL Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-03-05 06:58 PM
Response to Reply #9
12. bushie is primitively cunning about dirty tricks
but I believe that his brain is so burned out from heavy drinking and other drug abuse that he couldn't pull off an election theft of the magnitude that Rove can. Bushie is far too impatient and he probably doesn't remember or know all the details including people (which is why he "nick names" everybody). It is doubtful that bushie is cognitively capable to carry out complex campaigns.

As Truth Is All has shown -- even the master ROVE could not cover up all of his finger prints in stealing this election. There were too many variables -- too many votes that don't add up -- plus votes for minor offices or ballot issues which don't tally with the Prez totals.

Bushie knows that Rove is handling everything -- being a rich frat boy all bushie has had to do his whole life is tell someone to carry out his orders.

After watching bushie's performance in the debates (using that ear piece) plus the fact that bushie has to have hand selected audiences -- convinces me that bushie isn't rowing with bow ores in the water. But he is smart enough to find someone to carry out his orders and who will build up his ego -- and Rove is more than likely running the whole show. He is in fact the pulling the Presidential strings.
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berniew1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-03-05 01:53 PM
Response to Reply #3
7. Is there Exit Poll data on party? and official results on party turnout??
Edited on Sun Apr-03-05 02:22 PM by berniew1
anyone have this info?
for any state or U.S total?

Summary of known election problems by state in 2004 election
http://www.flcv.com/summary.html
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-03-05 02:32 PM
Response to Original message
8. Some clues...
Edited on Sun Apr-03-05 02:42 PM by TruthIsAll
The odds shown are the chances that Bush's percentage would
increase from the poll result to 50.73% of the vote.


Prelim. 11027 
7:38pm 				

PARTY ID	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Total
Democrat 	38%	9%	90%	1%	100.0%
Republican 	36%	92%	7%	1%	100.0%
Independent	26%	45%	52%	2%	99.0%
	      100%	48.24%	50.24%	1.26%	99.7%
	Odds 1 in	1,886,445			
					


Prelim. 13047
12:22am
Dem Party ID  margin widens to 3%				

PARTY ID	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Total
Democrat 	38%	9%	90%	1%	100.0%
Republican 	35%	92%	7%	0%	99.0%
Independent	27%	45%	52%	2%	99.0%
	       100%	47.77%	50.69%	0.92%	99.4%
	Odds 1 in	303,538,508			
					
					

Final 13660	
2:05pm
Party ID AND vote precentages are "adjusted".				

PARTY ID	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Total
Democrat 	37%	11%	89%	0	100.0%
Republican 	37%	93%	6%	0	99.0%
Independent	26%	48%	49%	1%	98.0%
	      100%	50.96%	47.89%	0.26%	99.11%
	Odds 1 in	1			
					
What happened here?				
Notice the Independent total decline to 98%?

In fact, they everything should total 100%.
Rounding fudge?

Ok, let's keep the mix constant.				
But change the percentages back to the 13047 poll.				
					
Final 13660	2:05pm (revised)
Change back to the 13047 poll percentages.				

PARTY ID	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Total
Democrat 	37%	9%	90%	1%	100.0%
Republican 	37%	92%	7%	0%	99.0%
Independent	26%	45%	52%	2%	99.0%
	       100%	49.07%	49.41%	0.89%	99.37%
	Odds 1 in	1,755			
					
Kerry is still the winner, even with the bogus 37/37/26 Party
ID mix.
Changing the mix from 38/35/37 was not enough.				
They had to change the votes as well.				

And the odds drop sharply that Bush would get 50.73%.				
					
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-03-05 03:38 PM
Response to Reply #8
10. Too late to Edit
Edited on Sun Apr-03-05 03:42 PM by TruthIsAll
On edit:
Party ID AND vote PERCENTAGES are "adjusted".

On edit:
In fact, everything should total 100%. But that would take away the ability to use a 0.5% fudge factor when it could be useful.

The fact that they don't show the weights and the votes to the nearest 0.1% is a smoking gun in and of itself.

On edit:
Changing the mix from 38/35/27 was not enough.

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-03-05 06:14 PM
Response to Reply #10
11. National Exit Poll deviations from 2000 Final to 2004 Prelim & Final
Edited on Sun Apr-03-05 06:15 PM by TruthIsAll
Compare the weights and percentages.
Very strange.


	National Exit Poll			National Exit Poll								
	Prelim: 12:22am			Final: 2:05pm		Change from			
	13047 respondents			13660 respondents	 Prelim. To Final			
														
	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader

GENDER Didn't Kerry do at least as well as Gore?													
Male
	-2.0%	-1.0%	5.0%	-2.0%		-2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	-3.0%	>>?	0.0%	3.0%	-3.0%	-1.0%
Female
	2.0%	2.0%	0.0%	-1.0%		2.0%	5.0%	-3.0%	-2.0%		0.0%	3.0%	-3.0%	-1.0%
Total
Vote	0.0%	0.4%	2.5%	-1.5%		0.0%	3.4%	-0.5%	-2.5%		0.0%	3.0%	-3.0%	-1.0%
														
		
AGE	Didn't more young people vote this time?													
18-29
	0.0%	-3.0%	8.0%	-4.0%		0.0%	-1.0%	6.0%	-5.0%	>>?	0.0%	2.0%	-2.0%	-1.0%
30-44
	-6.0%	1.0%	1.0%	-1.0%		-4.0%	4.0%	-2.0%	-1.0%		2.0%	3.0%	-3.0%	0.0%
45-59
	2.0%	-2.0%	3.0%	-1.0%		2.0%	2.0%	0.0%	-2.0%		0.0%	4.0%	-3.0%	-1.0%
Over 60
	4.0%	4.0%	-3.0%	-1.0%		2.0%	7.0%	-5.0%	-2.0%		-2.0%	3.0%	-2.0%	-1.0%
Total
Vote	0.0%	0.1%	1.9%	-1.5%		0.0%	3.3%	-0.7%	-2.2%		0.0%	3.1%	-2.6%	-0.7%
														
EDUCATION 														
No
H.S.	-1.0%	8.0%	-7.0%	0.0%		-1.0%	10.0%	-9.0%	-1.0%		0.0%	2.0%	-2.0%	-1.0%
H.S. Grad
	1.0%	-1.0%	3.0%	0.0%		1.0%	3.0%	-1.0%	-1.0%		0.0%	4.0%	-4.0%	-1.0%
Some College
	-1.0%	0.0%	2.0%	-2.0%		0.0%	3.0%	1.0%	-3.0%	>>?	1.0%	3.0%	-1.0%	-1.0%
College Grad
	2.0%	-1.0%	3.0%	-2.0%		2.0%	1.0%	1.0%	-2.0%		0.0%	2.0%	-2.0%	0.0%
Postgrad
	-1.0%	-4.0%	6.0%	-1.0%		-2.0%	0.0%	3.0%	-2.0%	>>?	-1.0%	4.0%	-3.0%	-1.0%
Total
Vote	0.0%	-0.7%	2.6%	-1.3%		0.0%	2.4%	0.3%	-2.1%		0.0%	3.1%	-2.3%	-0.7%
														
INCOME														
0-$15K
	2.0%	-4.0%	9.0%	-3.0%		1.0%	-1.0%	6.0%	-4.0%	>>?	-1.0%	3.0%	-3.0%	-1.0%
$15-30
	-1.0%	-2.0%	5.0%	-2.0%		-1.0%	1.0%	3.0%	-3.0%		0.0%	3.0%	-2.0%	-1.0%
$30-50
	-2.0%	-1.0%	3.0%	-1.0%		-2.0%	1.0%	1.0%	-2.0%		0.0%	2.0%	-2.0%	-1.0%
$50-75
	-2.0%	2.0%	-1.0%	-1.0%		-2.0%	5.0%	-3.0%	-2.0%		0.0%	3.0%	-2.0%	-1.0%
$75-100
	0.0%	-2.0%	4.0%	-2.0%		1.0%	3.0%	0.0%	-2.0%	>>?	1.0%	5.0%	-4.0%	0.0%
100+	3.0%	0.0%	2.0%	0.0%		3.0%	5.0%	-3.0%	0.0%		0.0%	5.0%	-5.0%	0.0%
														
														
PARTYID Weren't most new voters for Kerry?													
Democrat
	-1.0%	-2.0%	4.0%	-1.0%		-2.0%	0.0%	3.0%	-2.0%	>>?	-1.0%	2.0%	-1.0%	-1.0%
Republican
	0.0%	1.0%	-1.0%	0.0%		2.0%	2.0%	-2.0%	0.0%		2.0%	1.0%	-1.0%	0.0%
Indep	1.0%	-2.0%	7.0%	-4.0%		0.0%	1.0%	4.0%	-3.0%	>>?	-1.0%	3.0%	-3.0%	1.0%
Total
Vote	0.0%	-0.6%	2.7%	-1.4%		0.0%	1.3%	1.1%	-1.5%		0.0%	1.9%	-1.5%	-0.1%
														
IDEOLOGY Weren't most new voters Liberals/Mods?													
Liberal
	1.0%	-1.0%	6.0%	-5.0%		0.0%	0.0%	5.0%	-5.0%	>>?	-1.0%	1.0%	-1.0%	0.0%
Moderate
	-5.0%	-3.0%	5.0%	-1.0%		-5.0%	1.0%	2.0%	-2.0%		0.0%	4.0%	-3.0%	-1.0%
Conservative
	4.0%	1.0%	-1.0%	0.0%		5.0%	3.0%	-2.0%	-1.0%		1.0%	2.0%	-1.0%	-1.0%
Total
Vote	0.0%	-0.1%	2.1%	-1.6%		0.0%	2.6%	0.2%	-2.3%		0.0%	2.7%	-1.9%	-0.8%
														
														
VOTED
2000 2 mil. phantom Bush 2000 voters? Impossible.												
Gore	-8.0%	-7.0%	9.0%	-1.0%		-10.0%	-5.0%	8.0%	-2.0%		-2.0%	2.0%	-1.0%	-1.0%
Bush	9.0%	-1.0%	2.0%	-1.0%		11.0%	0.0%	2.0%	-1.0%		2.0%	1.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Other	-3.0%	-51.0%	38.0%	9.0%		-3.0%	-43.0%	44.0%	1.0%		0.0%	8.0%	6.0%	-8.0%
											0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
No	4.0%	-11.0%	13.0%	-2.0%		4.0%	-7.0%	10.0%	-2.0%		0.0%	4.0%	-3.0%	0.0%
Total
Vote	0.0%	-0.4%	2.2%	-1.3%		0.0%	1.7%	1.5%	-2.0%		0.0%	2.1%	-0.7%	-0.6%


WHEN DECIDED														
Today 	Didn't Kerry gain in the last month?													
Last3Days
	-8.0%	-5.0%	5.0%	-1.0%		-7.0%	-4.0%	7.0%	-4.0%		1.0%	1.0%	2.0%	-3.0%
Last Week
	-4.0%	7.0%	0.0%	-4.0%		-4.0%	7.0%	0.0%	-5.0%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	-1.0%
Last Month
	-3.0%	-7.0%	11.0%	-4.0%		-3.0%	-1.0%	5.0%	-4.0%		0.0%	6.0%	-6.0%	0.0%
Before
	9.0%	0.0%	2.0%	-1.0%		9.0%	3.0%	-2.0%	-1.0%		0.0%	3.0%	-4.0%	0.0%
Total
Vote	0.0%	-0.6%	3.1%	-1.7%		0.0%	2.7%	-0.7%	-2.0%		0.0%	3.3%	-3.8%	-0.4%
														
RELIGION														
Prot.	-1.0%	0.0%	1.0%	-1.0%		-1.0%	3.0%	-2.0%	-2.0%		0.0%	3.0%	-3.0%	-1.0%
Catholic
	0.0%	2.0%	0.0%	-1.0%		0.0%	5.0%	-3.0%	-2.0%		0.0%	3.0%	-3.0%	-1.0%
Jewish	-1.0%	4.0%	-2.0%	-1.0%		-1.0%	6.0%	-5.0%	-1.0%		0.0%	2.0%	-3.0%	0.0%
Other
	1.0%	-8.0%	13.0%	-3.0%		1.0%	-5.0%	12.0%	-6.0%		0.0%	3.0%	-1.0%	-3.0%
None
	1.0%	-1.0%	9.0%	-6.0%		1.0%	1.0%	6.0%	-6.0%		0.0%	2.0%	-3.0%	0.0%
Total
Vote	0.0%	-0.2%	2.3%	-1.5%		0.0%	2.7%	-0.6%	-2.5%		0.0%	2.9%	-2.9%	-1.0%
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-03-05 07:45 PM
Response to Reply #11
13. Clarification of what the data represents...

1. Preliminary (13047) 2004 National Exit Poll percent deviations from the Final 2000 Poll (not shown).

2. Final (13660) 2004 exit poll deviations from the Final 2000 Poll.

3. Final 2000 Exit Poll Deviations from the Preliminary.

The first column in each set represnts the change in the demographic weighting mix. These are significant if they have changed from 2000 to the preliminary or from the preliminary to final.

For example, Party ID was:
39/35/26 in the 2000 final.
38/35/25 in the 2004 prelim. The changes were -1%/0%/+1%.
37/37/26 in the 2004 final. The changes were -1%/+2%/-1%.

There was no change in the Gender mix in 2004 from 2000: 54% female/ 46% male.

The next three columns represent changes in vote share for Bush, Kerry, Nader (other).

The Kerry 13047 prelim. poll percentage of the female vote was equal to the 54% Gore 2000 share, but it dropped from 54-45% to 51-48% in the Final, or -3% for Kerry, +3% for Bush.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-03-05 09:58 PM
Response to Reply #11
14. NEP: 2000 Final vs. 2004 Prelim vs. 2004 Final
Edited on Sun Apr-03-05 09:59 PM by TruthIsAll
		
						Prelim: 12:22am		Final: 2:05pm			
						13047 respondents		13660 respondents			
														
	2000					13047					13660			
Gender	Mix	GORE	BUSH	NADER		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Male	48	42	53	3		46%	52%	47%	1%		46%	55%	44%	0
Female	52	54	43	2		54%	45%	54%	1%		54%	48%	51%	0
	100					100%	48.22%	50.78%	1.00%		100%	51.22%	47.78%	0.00%
														
														
														
AGE														
18-29	17	48	46	5		17%	43%	56%	1%		17%	45%	54%	0
30-44	33	48	49	2		27%	50%	49%	1%		29%	53%	46%	1%
45-59	28	48	49	2		30%	47%	51%	1%		30%	51%	48%	0
60+	22	51	47	2		26%	51%	48%	1%		24%	54%	46%	0
	100					100%	48.17%	50.53%	1.00%		100%	51.30%	47.96%	0.27%
														
Education														
No H.S.	5	59	39	1		4%	47%	52%	1%		4%	49%	50%	0
H.S.	21	48	49	1		22%	48%	51%	1%		22%	52%	47%	0
College	32	45	51	3		31%	51%	47%	1%		32%	54%	46%	0
CollGrad24	45	51	3		26%	50%	48%	1%		26%	52%	46%	1%
PostG	18	52	44	3		17%	40%	58%	2%		16%	44%	55%	1%
	100					100%	48.05%	50.21%	1.17%		100%	51.14%	47.91%	0.43%
														
Income														
<15	7	57	37	4		9%	33%	66%	1%		8%	36%	63%	0
15-30	16	54	41	3		15%	39%	59%	1%		15%	42%	57%	0
30-50	24	49	48	2		22%	47%	52%	1%		22%	49%	50%	0
50-75	25	46	51	2		23%	53%	45%	1%		23%	56%	43%	0
75-100	13	45	52	2		13%	50%	49%	0%		14%	55%	45%	0
100+	15	43	54	2		11%	53%	45%	2%		11%	57%	42%	1%
	100					4%	53%	47%	0%		4%	58%	42%	0
						3%	58%	41%	1%		3%	63%	35%	0
PartyID														
Dem	39	86	11	2		38%	9%	90%	1%		37%	11%	89%	0%
Rep	35	8	91	1		35%	92%	7%	1%		37%	93%	6%	1%
Ind	26	45	47	6		27%	45%	52%	2%		26%	48%	49%	3%
	100					100%	47.77%	50.69%	1.27%		100%	49.69%	49.15%	1.16%
														
IDEOLOGY						Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Lib	21	80	13	6		22%	12%	86%	1%		21%	13%	85%	1%
Mod	50	52	44	2		45%	41%	57%	1%		45%	45%	54%	0
Con	29	17	81	1		33%	82%	16%	1%		34%	84%	15%	0
	100					100%	48.15%	49.85%	1.00%		100%	50.83%	47.95%	0.22%
														
FirstTimeVote														
Yes	9	52	43	4										
No	91	48	48	2										
	100													
														
Voted for														
Clinton		82	15	2	Gore	39%	8%	91%	1%		37%	10%	90%	0%
Dole		7	91	1	Bush	41%	90%	9%	0%		43%	91%	9%	0%
Perot		27	64	7	Other	3%	13%	65%	16%		3%	21%	71%	8%
Other		26	52	15										
None		44	52	3	No	17%	41%	57%	1%		17%	45%	54%	1%
					Total
Vote	100%	47.38%	50.82%	1.04%		100%	49.49%	50.10%	0.41%
											
WHEN DECIDED		
Today						6%	40%	53%	5%		5%	45%	52%	1%
3days		48	46	5		3%	41%	53%	4%		4%	42%	55%	1%
week		48	44	5		2%	51%	48%	1%		2%	51%	48%	0
month		49	45	5		10%	38%	60%	1%		10%	44%	54%	1%
Before		48	50	1		79%	50%	50%	0%		79%	53%	46%	0%
						100%	47.95%	51.23%	0.54%		100%	51.25%	47.47%	0.19%
														
RELIGION	
Prot		42	56	2		53%	56%	43%	1%		53%	59%	40%	0
Cath		50	47	2		27%	49%	50%	1%		27%	52%	47%	0
Jewish		79	19	1		3%	23%	77%	0%		3%	25%	74%	0
Other		62	28	7		7%	20%	75%	4%		7%	23%	74%	1%
None		61	30	7		10%	29%	70%	1%		10%	31%	67%	1%
						100%	47.90%	50.85%	1.18%		100%	50.77%	47.99%	0.17%

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Bill Bored Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-03-05 10:25 PM
Response to Original message
15. Also too late to edit this:
Edited on Sun Apr-03-05 10:31 PM by Bill Bored
"In the change from 38/35/27 in the 2004 Preliminary to 37/27/26 in the Final, we have:"

It should read 37/37/26 In the Final.

And to my simple mind, this is the smoking gun -- not the who-did-they-vote-for-in-2000? stuff. But reasonable people can disagree about that.

Also, weren't there more new Dems registered than Repubs, or is that just in FL or something? Do we have those numbers and what is their source?

And where did you get that a majority (65-71%) of 3 million Naderites voted for Kerry?
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-03-05 10:31 PM
Response to Reply #15
16. Thanks for the catch, Bill. But I disagree on the smoking gun...
The How Voted 43/37% mix is verifiably impossible.
I proved it using ACTUAL historic voting stats.
The Bush maximum was 39%.

The PartyID from 38/35/27 to 37/37/36 is bogus.
I agree.

But proving it is something else.
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Bill Bored Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-04-05 03:24 PM
Response to Reply #16
21. TIA, I just don't get it...yet.
Give me a little time, which I don't have right now because I've been working on the HOW of election fraud, rather than the IF.

What bothers me about the Y2K voter stuff is that it all seems to be based on the answer to the question asked in 2004 which had a very high non-response rate and also showed that Bush won the popular vote in 2000 which is unequivocally false, thus invalidating the response sample. If the rest of the hypothesis or "proof" is based on that, it may not be valid.

If it's based on the actual Y2K votes, dead voters, etc., it makes more sense, but conflating this with the (under-) response to the How-Voted-in-Y2K question asked in 2004 just muddies the waters in my view, and this is why I don't buy it.

But the Party ID question was answered by almost EVERYONE in the 2004 sample and, after it was adjusted to 37/37/26 on 11/3, it does show a real deviation from historical norms, as well as the current Rep/Dem party registration distribution, as far as I know. So I think it's much more telling than a Y2K-related question asked and answered 4 years later by only 25% of the 2004 sample.

Unless you believe that 3% of all Democrats were kept away from the polls by voter suppression tactics nationwide, and even moreso in the West where the party ID shift was much greater (for which there is no evidence that I'm aware of), this is the smoking gun!

Bottom line: If they had to adjust the 2004 party ID weightings so much that they appear to be a unreal in order for Bush to even get close to winning the popular vote, that's good enough for me.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-04-05 04:17 PM
Response to Reply #21
22. Bill, let me try again...
Edited on Mon Apr-04-05 04:43 PM by TruthIsAll
Don't confuse the core of the issue with responses to the poll.
Forget about the rsponses.
Focus on the physical realities.

And focus on the motivation to "adjust" the weights from 41/39 to 43/37.

Let's look at the weights:
The Preliminary 13047 split was 41/39%. That is THEORETICALLY possible if one assumes that only a few thousand Bush voters died (defying annual death statistics) and ALL of those who lived came to vote in 2004. So, practically speaking, it's IMPOSSIBLE.

But even assuming 41/39% was true, KERRY WON THE 13047 EXIT POLL BASED ON THESE BUSH-BIASED DEMOGRAPHIC WEIGHTS.

Now consider the Final 13660 Poll. Again, do NOT focus on the 25% who responded to the question. Focus on the physical realities.
Just look at the FINAL split: 43%/37%.

Now, we know the preliminary poll weightings had to be adjusted to match the vote. The 13047 weights showed that Kerry won, even though 41/39% in favor of Bush was PHYSICALLY AN IMPOSSIBLE SPLIT.

So what did Edison/ Mitofsky do?
They took an ALREADY IMPOSSIBLE result and instead of matching to the factual 2000 vote, they matched to the BOGUS 2004 vote with an outrageous 43%/37% weighting.

THERE CAN BE NO OTHER REASON FOR REPLACING THE 41%/39% IN THE EXIT POLL OTHER THAN TO MATCH TO A BOGUS VOTE COUNT.

Now 43% of the 122.26 million who voted in 2004 is 52.57 million.
BUT BUSH GOT ONLY 50.456 MILLION VOTES IN 2000!
THAT'S A DIFFERENCE OF 2.11 MILLION.

THEREFORE, THE BUSH VOTE WAS INFLATED IN THE FINAL EXIT POLL BY 2.11 MILLION VOTES.

WE KNOW THAT APPROXIMATELY 3.5% OF BUSH 2000 VOTERS DIED (1.77 MILLION) BEFORE ELECTION 2004.

THEREFORE, THE BUSH VOTE WAS INFLATED BY 1.77 + 2.11 = 3.88 MILLION VOTES.

THIS STILL ASSUMES 100% of BUSH 2000 VOTERS CAME TO THE POLLS IN 2004. WE KNOW THAT AT LEAST SOME STAYED HOME AND DID NOT VOTE.
HOW MANY? WHO KNOWS?

BUT WE DO KNOW THAT THE MORE BUSH VOTERS AND KERRY VOTERS WHO STAYED HOME AND DID NOT VOTE, THE MORE NEW VOTERS THERE HAD TO BE.

AND WE KNOW THAT NEW VOTERS WENT FOR KERRY BY 54-45 OR 59-39%, DEPENDING ON WHICH POLL RESULT YOU BELIEVE.

I hope that clears it up.


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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-03-05 10:58 PM
Response to Reply #15
18. Just look at the exit poll category
And where did you get that a majority (65-71%) of 3 million
Naderites voted for Kerry?

Other is Nader

13047 Exit Poll

VOTED
2000	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
No	17%	41%	57%	1%
Gore	39%	8%	91%	1%
Bush	41%	90%	9%	0%
Other	3%	13%	65%	16%
	100%	47.38%	50.82%	1.04%
	121.33	57.93	62.13	1.27


13660 - Final			
VOTED
2000	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
No	17%	45%	54%	1%
Gore	37%	10%	90%	0%
Bush	43%	91%	9%	0%
Other	3%	21%	71%	8%
	100%	51.11%	48.48%	0.41%
	122.26	62.49	59.27	0.50
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LatePeriduct Donating Member (660 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-03-05 10:35 PM
Response to Original message
17. Its the answer...
My inner freeper friend says...

"What happened to change this trend between 2000 and 2004?"

The only thing that happened was we accidently hired a bunch of lousy exit poll takers. See they all jumbled their results and polled the wrong voter affiliations, nothing big. We better do alot of work here or better yet lets throw out polls.

To which I would have to say.

But you said that this accidental mistake happened in every precinct and area with over the limit size of registrations. You said it happened in mainly republican voter demographic areas. If that's the real case, and our exit pollers are that magic maybe they should all be fired along with the republicans who take the polls?

I mean I don't get it. This would have to be one real large-scale mistake you're talking about. Would it not make more sense that just about all those voters by party ID on that side were purged, and mis-counted by the machines? It would then allow for a total switcheroo.

So you're basically admitting that they purged the vote totals?

To which he'd reply.

Yeah of course! Our exit polls must be banned, that's what I said.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-04-05 09:44 AM
Response to Reply #17
19. This is what happened in a nutshell...
Edited on Mon Apr-04-05 09:52 AM by TruthIsAll
Based on the prelim. exit poll:

1. Kerry won 12.5 of 21.5 million NEW voters: + 3.5 (57-41%)
2. Kerry won 2 of 3 million Nader voters: + 1.0 (67%)
3. Kerry had the Gore 0.50mm margin going in: + 0.5

That gives Kerry a 5.0 million plurality...
We don't know how many Bush 2000 voters switched to Kerry.
We don't know how many Gore 2000 voters switched to Bush.

Anecdotal evidence indicates that many more switched from Bush to Kerry than vice versa. For sake of argument, assume the net switch was 1 million to Kerry.
4. Net switch to Kerry: +1

Adding up: Kerry plurality is 6.0 million.
Kerry:63.5mm (51.96%)
Bush: 57.5mm (47.05%
Other: 1.2mm (0.99%)

Total: 122.2mm

And this does not include those disenfranchised or discouraged from voting. So the margin is more than 6 million.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-04-05 11:12 AM
Response to Reply #19
20. Continued...
Edited on Mon Apr-04-05 11:20 AM by TruthIsAll
Kerry:63.5mm (51.96%)
Bush: 57.5mm (47.05%
Other: 1.2mm (0.99%)

Total: 122.2mm

COMPARE TO THE RECORDED VOTE:
Bush: 62.0
Kerry: 59.0
Other: 1.2

Let's undue the assumed 1% net shift from Bush voters to Kerry:
Kerry:62.5mm
Bush: 58.5mm
Other: 1.2mm
TO BELIEVE THE RECORDED VOTE, WHILE ASSUMING 57-41% NEW VOTERS VOTED FOR KERRY, ONE MUST ALSO BELIEVE THAT A NET 3.5 MILLION VOTERS (7%, OR 1 OF 14) SWITCHED FROM GORE TO BUSH. SINCE PARTY ID WAS 38/35/27, THAT IS EQUIVALENT TO SAYING THAT 7% OF 38% OR 2.66% SWITCHED FROM DEM TO REPUB.

AND THE ADJUSTED PARTY-ID MIX MUST BE: 35.34 /37.66 /27
BUT THIS CONTRADICTS THE FINAL EXIT POLL MIX:37/37/26.

WE HAVE ANOTHER APPARENT INCONSISTENCY IN THE FINAL EXIT POLL DEMOGRAPHIC WEIGHTING.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-26-05 07:03 PM
Response to Original message
23. Where Have All the Democrats Gone? Gone to Cyberspace, every one
Edited on Tue Apr-26-05 07:03 PM by TruthIsAll
When will they ever learn?

When will they ever learn?
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mod mom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-26-05 09:37 PM
Response to Original message
24. TIA, you deserve an ER=D Lifetime Achievement Award! nt
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