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From Selection 2000 to 2004 (NEP): Voted, Died, Reborn, Did Not Vote

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-01-05 09:33 PM
Original message
From Selection 2000 to 2004 (NEP): Voted, Died, Reborn, Did Not Vote
Edited on Fri Apr-01-05 09:46 PM by TruthIsAll
								
	Total	Pct 	3.50%	Alive	Max			
2000	Vote	2004	Died	2004	Weight			
Bush	50.456	41.27%	1.766	48.690	39.8%			
Gore	50.999	41.71%	1.785	49.214	40.3%			

Based on the annual U.S. death rate(8.7 per thousand):
1.766 million Bush 2000 voters died.
1.785 million Gore 2000 voters died.

According to the Preliminary Exit Poll (13047):								
	Weight	Voted						
Bush	41%	50.127						
Gore	39%	47.681						
								
50.127 mil. Bush 2000 voters turned out (99.35%) 
Impossible (too high), since 1.766 mil died.			

47.681 mil Gore voters turned out (93.49%)
Possible, but unlikely (too low).			

0.329	mil Bush voters died (0.65%)
Impossible (too high), since 1.766 mil died.			

1.785	mil Gore voters died (3.50%)
Best estimate			

1.533	mil Gore voters stayed home (3.01%)
Unlikely (too high)			
................................................								
								
According to the Final Exit Poll (13660):								
	Weight	Voted						
Bush	43%	52.57						
Gore	37%	45.24						

52.572 mil. Bush 2000 voters turned out (104.19%)
Impossible (too high), since only 50.456 mil. voted.

2.116	mil Bush voters were reincarnated (4.19%) 
All came to vote. Sure. I see dead people.
						
45.236 mil Gore voters turned out (88.70%)
Possible, but unlikely (too low).	

1.785	mil Gore voters died (3.50%)
Best estimate.

3.978	mil Gore voters stayed home (7.80%)
Unlikely (too high)	
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-02-05 08:08 AM
Response to Original message
1. How Voted in 2000: Various scenarios and Best Estimate of the mix
Edited on Sat Apr-02-05 09:06 AM by TruthIsAll
We know that the Final Exit Poll 43% Bush /37% Gore weights
are IMPOSSIBLE.

The Preliminary Exit Poll 41%/39% is closer to the truth - but
still not there. To believe it was 41%/39%, one must assume
that Bush 2000 voters defied the U.S. annual 0.87% death rate.

Here is a plausible range of possibilities, assuming the death
rate and various percentages of 2000 voters who chose to sit
out the 2004 election.

ESTIMATE OF HOW MANY 2000 VOTERS TURNED OUT IN 2004
BEST ESTIMATE: 1% did not return to vote								
								
	Total	Pct 	3.50%	Alive	Max	1.00%	Max	Final
2000	Vote	2004	Died	2004	Weight	NoVote	Voted	Weight
Bush	50.456	41.27%	1.766	48.690	39.82%	0.505	48.185	39.41%
Gore	50.999	41.71%	1.785	49.214	40.25%	0.510	48.704	39.84%
Other	3.315	2.71%	0.116	3.199	2.62%	0.033	3.166	2.59%

Total	104.77	85.69%	3.667	101.10	82.70%	1.048	100.05	81.84%

48.185mil Bush 2000 voters turned out:	95.50%				
1.766	mil Bush voters died:			3.50%				
0.505	mil Bush voters stayed home:		1.00%				

48.704mil Gore voters turned out:		95.50%				
1.785	mil Gore voters died:			3.50%				
0.510	mil Gore voters stayed home:		1.00%				
						

Final Weightings based on percentage of 2000 voters still
alive who did not vote in 2004:									

NoVote 0.00% 0.25%	0.50%	0.75%	1.00%	1.25%	1.50%	1.75%	2.00%
Bush	39.82%	39.72%	39.62%	39.52%	39.41%	39.31%	39.21%	39.10%	39.00%
Gore	40.25%	40.15%	40.05%	39.94%	39.84%	39.73%	39.63%	39.52%	39.42%
Other	2.62%	2.61%	2.60%	2.60%	2.59%	2.58%	2.58%	2.57%	2.56%

TOTAL	82.70%	82.48%	82.27%	82.05%	81.84%	81.62%	81.41%	81.20%	80.98%


These are the corresponding stats for 2004 voters who did not
vote in 2000:

New 	21.16	21.42	21.68	21.94	22.20	22.47	22.73	22.99	23.25
% New
	17.30%	17.52%	17.73%	17.95%	18.16%	18.38%	18.59%	18.80%	19.02%
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-02-05 12:17 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. Kerry Winning Margins for Plausible Final Exit Poll Turnout Scenarios
Edited on Sat Apr-02-05 01:14 PM by TruthIsAll
FINAL EXIT POLL (13660)  
IMPOSSIBLE WEIGHTING MIX

How Voted
2000	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	
No	17%	45%	54%	1%	
Gore	37%	10%	90%	0%	
Bush	43%	91%	9%	0%	
Other	3%	21%	71%	8%	
	100.0%	51.11%	48.48%	0.41%	
	122.26	62.49	59.27	0.50	
Bush wins by 3.22 mil
					
......................................................
PLAUSIBLE 2000 VOTER TURNOUT SCENARIOS	
Margin: Kerry win (millions of votes)
				
100% Bush turnout	100% Gore turnout		
Gore%	Weight Margin Bush%	Weight	Margin
97.00%	39.02%	1.88	97.00%	38.59%	4.31
98.00%	39.42%	2.22	98.00%	39.00%	3.86
99.00%	39.84%	2.59	99.00%	39.41%	3.4
100.0%	40.25%	2.94	100.0%	39.82%	2.94
					
........................................................					
WORST CASE KERRY SCENARIO					
Turnout: 100% Bush/ 97% Gore					

How Voted
2000	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	
No	18.56%	45%	54%	1%	
Gore	39.02%	10%	90%	0%	
Bush	39.82%	91%	9%	0%	
Other	2.60%	21%	71%	8%	
	100.0%	49.04%	50.57%	0.39%	
	122.26	59.95	61.83	0.48	
Kerry wins by		1.88	mm		
					
					
BEST CASE KERRY SCENARIO
Turnout 97% Bush/ 100% Gore					

How Voted
2000	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
No	18.56%	45%	54%	1%
Gore	40.25%	10%	90%	0%
Bush	38.59%	91%	9%	0%
Other	2.60%	21%	71%	8%
	100.0%	48.04%	51.57%	0.39%
	122.26	58.73	63.05	0.48
Kerry wins by		4.31	mm	
	
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-02-05 11:07 PM
Response to Reply #1
4. On Edit: 0.329 mil. Bush 2000 voters died (0.65%). Impossible (too low)
Correction:
"0.329 mil Bush voters died (0.65%)
Impossible (too high), since 1.766 mil died".

On Edit:
It should be (too LOW)
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-02-05 12:43 PM
Response to Original message
3. TWO SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS GRAPHS
Edited on Sat Apr-02-05 12:51 PM by TruthIsAll
BOTH ASSUME 100% BUSH 2000 VOTER TURNOUT
AND VARIOUS GORE TURNOUT SCENARIOS

KERRY WINNING VOTE MARGINS
Image

KERRY WINNING PERCENTAGE MARGINS
Image
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