The Final National Exit Poll's impossible 43/37% Bush/Gore
2000 voter mix is a very revealing demographic.
But Uscountvotes.org never mentioned it in their report.
I think it is potentially the biggest smoking gun of all.
Here is an extremely persuasive mathematical argument ( I
won't use the word proof) that the Bush 43% had to be at least
3% higher than the true number, which means that the Gore 37%
number was at least 3% too low. We will derive this result
using actual vote statistics from 2000 and 2004, as well as
the annual U.S. death rate, to determine approximately how
many 2000 voters could possibly have voted in 2004.
We will just need some basic elementary algebra.
All totals are in millions of votes.
Here are the basic stats:
V2004 = Total votes in 2004 = 122.26
V2000 = Total Votes in 2000 = 104.77
B2000 = Bush 2000 votes = 50.456
G2000 = Gore 2000 votes = 50.999
O2000 = Nader/other 2000 votes = 3.322
D2000 = 2000 voters who have died = 3.67 (3.5% of 104.77)
Note: 3.5% is the approximate percentage of 2000 voters who
have since died, based on the annual death rate of 8.7 per
1000.
Let's calculate NEW, the MINIMUM number of 2004 voters who did
not vote in 2000.
The basic equation is:
V2004 = 122.26 = B2000 + G2000 + O2000 - D2000 + NEW
or
V2004 = V2000 - D2000 + NEW
Therefore,
122.26 = 104.77 - 3.67 + NEW
NEW = 122.26 - 104.77 +3.67 = 21.16
The NEW Voter weight (NW) must be AT LEAST 17.3%:
NW = 17.3% = 21.16/122.26
NW EXACTLY matches (after rounding) the Final Exit Poll New
Voter percentage of 17%.
The MAXIMUM number of returning Bush 2000 voters is 48.69,
after subtracting the 3.5% who died from B2000 (50.456).
The MAXIMUM Bush weight BW = 39.8% (48.69/122.26), which is
3.2% below the Final Exit Poll (43%).
The MAXIMUM number of returning Nader/Other 2000 voters is
3.20, after subtracting the 3.5% who died from N2000 (3.322).
The MAXIMUM Nader/Other weight OW = 2.6% (3.322/122.26), or
0.4% below the Final Exit Poll (3)%.
The MAXIMUM number of returning Gore voters (GM) must equal
49.27:
Calculate the Gore voter weight:
GW = 100% - (BW + NW + OW)
GW = 100% - (39.8% + 17.3% + 2.6%)
GW = 100% - 59.7% = 40.3%
GM = 40.3% of 122.26 = 49.27 votes.
WE HAVE JUST SHOWN THAT THE "VOTED 2000" MIX MUST
HAVE BEEN VERY CLOSE TO 39.8% BUSH/40.3% GORE, ASSUMING ALL
2000 BUSH AND GORE VOTERS RETURNED TO THE POLLS IN 2004. OF
COURSE, SOME VOTERS STAYED HOME, SO THE BUSH, GORE AND NADER
PERCENTAGES MUST BE LOWER, WHILE THE PERCENTAGE OF NEW VOTERS
MUST BE HIGHER.
THIS DOES NOT EFFECT THE , FOR THREE REASONS:
1) THE PERCENTAGE OF 2000 VOTERS WHO CHOSE NOT TO VOTE IN 2004
WAS RELATIVELY SMALL.
2) IT IS LIKELY THAT MORE DISENCHANTED BUSH VOTERS STAYED HOME
THAN DID GORE VOTERS, WHO WERE VERY MOTIVATED TO VOTE BUSH OUT
AFTER WHAT HAPPENED IN 2000.
3) WE KNOW THAT KERRY WON A CLEAR MAJORITY OF NEW VOTERS - BY
54% (13660 EXIT POLL), 57% (13047 POLL) OR 59% (11027 POLL).
SO, KERRY MUST HAVE DONE EVEN BETTER DUE TO THESE CONSERVATIVE
ASSUMPTIONS.
USING THE ADJUSTED WEIGHTS, THE FOLLOWING CALCULATION SHOWS
THAT KERRY MUST HAVE WON THE ELECTION EASILY, EVEN IF WE
ASSUME THE FINAL EXIT POLL STATS WHICH WERE ADJUSTED TO MATCH
THE BUSH VOTE.
HERE'S THE CALCULATION, WITH THE IMPOSSIBLE BUSH/GORE 43/37
MIX CHANGED TO 39.8/40.3%:
VOTED
2000 Mix Bush Kerry Nader
No 17.3% 45% 54% 1%
Gore 40.3% 10% 90% 0%
Bush 39.8% 90% 9% 1%
Other 2.6% 21% 71% 8%
100% 48.18% 51.04% 0.78%
122.26 58.91 62.40 0.95
Kerry wins by 3.50 million votes.
This is probably too low, since in the earlier, pristine 13047
exit poll, he won 57% of New voters and 92% of Gore voters.
If so, Kerry won by 6.95 million votes (52.4-46.7%)
VOTED
2000 Mix Bush Kerry Nader
No 17.3% 41% 57% 2%
Gore 40.3% 8% 92% 0%
Bush 39.8% 90% 9% 1%
Other 2.6% 21% 71% 8%
100% 46.68% 52.37% 0.95%
122.26 57.07 64.02 1.16