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PROOF WORTH REPEATING: FINAL NEP PADDED MINIMUM OF 3.85 MIL TO BUSH VOTE

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-28-05 01:22 PM
Original message
PROOF WORTH REPEATING: FINAL NEP PADDED MINIMUM OF 3.85 MIL TO BUSH VOTE
Edited on Mon Mar-28-05 02:18 PM by TruthIsAll
Proving it makes Kerry the unequivocal winner, since Bush won
the election by 3 million votes, 62-59 mm.

As I have shown in my recent posts, the "How Voted in
2000" Demographic is IMPOSSIBLE. 

The NEP Final 13660 Exit Poll claims that Bush 2000 voters
comprised 43% of total 2004 turnout, or 52.57 mm (.43*
122.26). 

This overstates the actual Bush 2000 vote (50.456 mm) by 2.1
million, so the absolute MAXIMUM Bush 2000 voter turnout was
41.26% (50.456/122.26). 

And that assumes ZERO BUSH VOTER DEATHS SINCE 2000. Totally
unrealistic. 

Let's be realistic. Using the U.S. annual death rate of 8.7
per thousand, then approximately 1.75 million Bush 2000 voters
died. 

So the NEP overstated the live Bush turnout by 2.1 + 1.75 =
3.85 million votes.

I'm not done yet.

An unknown percentage of Bush 2000 voters who are still alive
stayed home in 2004, for whatever reason. Let's assume 1% did.
It could have been more, it could have been less. 

Now 1% of 50.456 mm =.50 mm.

Adding .50 to 3.85, we get a 4.35 MILLION VOTE DISCREPANCY
(8.7%)  when compared to the IMPOSSIBLE Final NEP Bush 43%
turnout.

If this CONFIRMED NEP demographic is off by 8.7%, how far off
are all the other Final Exit poll statistics which can not be
confirmed by actual historic numbers?

IF THIS IS NOT ENOUGH PROOF FOR THE MEDIA, NOTHING IS.

FINAL EXIT POLL (13660 RESPONDENTS)
2:05 PM 11/03/04

IMPOSSIBLE WEIGHTINGS:
Voted	2000	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	
20.77	No	17%	45%	54%	1%	
45.21	Gore	37%	10%	90%	1%	
52.54	Bush	43%	91%	9%	0%	
3.66	Other	3%	21%	71%	3%	
101.43	TOTAL	100%	51.11%	48.48%	0.63%
	Votes	122.53	62.49	59.27	0.77

Bush	Margin	3.22 mm.
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yurbud Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-28-05 01:32 PM
Response to Original message
1. I can barely follow this, which is the problem with this issue
How do you explain this to some numb nuts who can't even make correct change?
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-28-05 01:42 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. It's very simple.
1. The NEP said 52.57 million Bush 2000 voters came to the polls in 2004. Impossible only 50.456 voted for Bush, a 2.1 million error.

2. About 1.5 - 2 million of Bush voters died. Another 1.75 million error.

3. Some Bush 2000 voters (assume 1%) stayed home. Another .500 million error.

Add up the three errors: A 4.35 million total error. Bush's total was overstated by close to 4.35 million.
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indepat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-28-05 02:06 PM
Response to Reply #2
5. The most frightening and damning story here is that it is no story. Those
in the know are not telling the American people what they know and the reasons why virtually no one in the MSM and the Congress is talking are most curious indeed, are astoundingly mind-boggling IMHO and perhaps the most frightening aspect of what has gone down.
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yurbud Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-28-05 02:44 PM
Response to Reply #2
7. better! If you could get it in one sentence, even a tard could get it.
that has to be the goal or we're talking to ourselves.
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Old and In the Way Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-28-05 04:14 PM
Response to Reply #7
10. You have to wonder why the MSM haven't bothered to ask the
questions. Seems to me, TIA has made a very simple and compelling case for the MSM to ask, "Were there problems with the voting results?" We, here, starting asking those questions the night of the election....we saw CNN change the exit polls to match the reported results.

The MSM is complicit in the destruction of our democracy and our society. They are working with Republicans in fanning the flames of a social civil war. They aren't asking why bills like the bankruptcy bill are passed, they aren't objective in reporting on Social Security, and they have never critiqued what happeed on 9/11. They covered the administration's lies about 9/11. They cover Terri 24/7 when 100 people protest, but ignore 100s of thousands marching against this administration's policies. They allow this corrupt Party to maintain their hold on us...they have legitimized them by their inactions and in their active cover up of the Republican's stealing of this election. They are unindicted co-conpirators in the killing of this country.

So I doubt that any tard will ever figure it out, because the programming he gets will never take the time to explain it to him/her.
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yurbud Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-29-05 01:51 AM
Response to Reply #10
23. sad but true
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ginnyinWI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-28-05 04:09 PM
Response to Reply #2
9. call me dense but
What about people who didn't vote in 2000 at all, who came out to vote for Chimpy in 2004?
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-28-05 04:20 PM
Response to Reply #9
11. In the 45% for Bush who did not vote, not the impossible 43% who did
Make sure you read the table correctly.

You are missing the point of the proof.
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Iceburg Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-29-05 01:28 AM
Response to Reply #2
22. Each year 1.5-2 M die, but how many citizens become eligible
Edited on Tue Mar-29-05 01:29 AM by Iceburg
to vote for the first time (18 year olds + new US citizens). Is that factored in?
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-29-05 03:09 AM
Response to Reply #22
25. They are new voters. Kerry won by 57-41%. Yes they are factored in.
Check the demographic mix. The point of the thread is the Bush/Gore voter spread.

Voted in 2000:
Total 2004 Vote = New voters + Bush2000Net + Gore2000Net + Other2000Net
.
122.26 = N + BNet + GNet + ONet

New = BNet + GNet + ONet - 122.26

BNet < 50.456 - Bush2000 deaths = 50.456 -.035*50.456= 50.456-1.77 = 48.68

GNet < 50.999 - Gore2000 deaths =50.999 - .035*50.999 = 50.999 - 1.785 = 49.21

So as the BNet voter turnout drops from an impossible 43% to the maximum 39.8%, Gore2000 voters and New voters must increase (assume Other is unchanged).

And those are all Kerry votes.


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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-29-05 08:54 PM
Response to Reply #1
27. GRAPH: Kerry winning margin for 120 scenarios
Edited on Tue Mar-29-05 09:02 PM by TruthIsAll
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Old and In the Way Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-28-05 01:44 PM
Response to Original message
3. Impossible results.
No way Bush gets more votes in 2004 than 2000. No way do Democrats move to Bush in 2004...nope.

But with regards to your last table, in the "Voted" column-

Gore gets 45.21MM to Bush's 52.54? Or is that column restating Bush's 2000 totals in terms of his 2004 %? What happen to the .5MM more voters for Gore in 2000? If Kerry gets 9% more of the 'didn't vote in 2000' voters, how did Kerry lose 6% of the Gore voters to Bush in 2004?

Also, what is the "No" data? Those that didn't vote in 2000?
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-28-05 01:51 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. Answers.
Edited on Mon Mar-28-05 02:14 PM by TruthIsAll
"Gore gets 45.21MM to Bush's 52.54? Or is that column restating Bush's 2000 totals in terms of his 2004%"?

It's the number of former Bush and Gore voters who came to the polls, if you believe the IMPOSSIBLE FINAL National Exit Poll 43/37% weights, as posted on the CNN web site at 2:05pm on 11/03/04.

"What happen to the .5MM more voters for Gore in 2000? If Kerry gets 9% more of the 'didn't vote in 2000' voters, how did Kerry lose 6% of the Gore voters to Bush in 2004"?

Good question. Obviously, he didn't.

"Also, what is the "No" data? Those that didn't vote in 2000"?
Exactly.

We just proved mathematically that Kerry won the election and that the Final Exit Poll was a sham.
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FreepFryer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-29-05 01:55 AM
Response to Reply #4
24. Great stuff TIA. Now, to create a Sagan-esque 'Popular Math'-level explan.
If you can get this message drafted properly, and visualized as efficiently as possible, it could be ready for prime time.

I suggest you work with like-minded folks to draft the 'proof' at a 5-th grade reading level, and then deluge our many media contacts.
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kansasblue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-28-05 02:24 PM
Response to Original message
6. great stuff for the 'Paper Chase'
This would be great stuff for people to print off for the 'paper chase'. Print it and leave it on the bus, plane, coffee shop, waiting room, bathroom.

http://rawstory.com/contact/paperchase.html
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Sancho Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-28-05 03:29 PM
Response to Reply #6
8. The BIG question is..."why can't we check this out?"
The pollsters have the ability to check this and lots of other demographics. The fact that they don't report all the raw data for every item and location and demographic is to avoid exactly this kind of evidence.

Remember though, the pollsters may not have been aware of exactly what tabbulator hacking or whatever was actually occurring, so they were forced into either reporting one of the following:

a.) there was evidence of a fraudulent election
b.) they don't know why the polls don't match better so they speculate and write poor explanations and hide the data
c.) they don't think polls are worth anything and should go out of business

They have picked b.) as a response.

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lukery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-28-05 06:14 PM
Response to Original message
12. 13660
TruthIsAll, i think you make a good case, but i think you should switch to the *actual* 12,212 interviews as per my previous post

i agree with you that the discrepancy "only confirms the tons of exit poll anomalies." - but you should still use the correct numbers.

it'd really suck if your story got some traction, but was then dismissed (or clouded) because you are using the wrong numbers.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-28-05 06:30 PM
Response to Reply #12
13. Go to CNN for the official, final version. I'll stick with that.
.
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lukery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-28-05 06:38 PM
Response to Reply #13
14. NEP says...
its up to you, but according to the NEP those numbers are wrong
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-28-05 07:11 PM
Response to Reply #14
15. Then NEP should inform the media

Roper 11,719
2004 National Election Pool Exit Polls
Conducted by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International
The national poll sampled some 11,719 voters as they left polling stations on November 2, 2004 and another 500 telephone interviews (for each version of the questionnaire) of absentee/early voters. Questions pertaining to the respondents' choice for President included when they made their decision, which candidate qualities drove their decision and which primary issue mattered most to them. Some other questions on the poll asked respondents' their views on the war in Iraq, personal finances, terrorism, health care, gay marriage, and abortion. The surveys offer a full battery of demographic variables. The individual state surveys also included questions regarding local races and referenda where applicable.
All of the questionnaires may be viewed in PDF directly from the Center's Catalog:

http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/cgi-bin/hsrun.exe/rope... ;start=SetWhereClause?Text1=USMI2004-NATELEC

2004 National Exit Polls
2004 State Exit Polls
..

CBS -13660
http://election.cbsnews.com/election2004/poll/poll_p___...


Election for P - U.S. All Exit Poll
Sample Size: 13660
Last Polled Date: 11/3/2004




CNN
13,660 Respondents Updated: 2:04 p.m.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/U...


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lukery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-28-05 07:29 PM
Response to Reply #15
16. bingo
its appalling
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lukery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-28-05 11:13 PM
Response to Reply #15
18. www.exit-poll.net
actually, i misinterpreted what u said - i thought u were agreeing with me

roper seems to be confused as well - there were four different phone versions - but they didnt do 500*4 phone interviews.

Heres what NEP says on their own site from a document called METHODS STATEMENT:
"The National exit poll was conducted at a sample of 250 polling places among 11,719 Election Day voters representative of the United States.
In addition, 500 absentee and/or early voters in 13 states were interviewed in a pre-election telephone poll."
pdf



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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-28-05 11:51 PM
Response to Reply #18
19. For the upteenth time, the NEP links to three 13660 poll sites:
Edited on Mon Mar-28-05 11:59 PM by TruthIsAll
CNN - they say 13660 at the top
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/U...



CBS - they say 13660 at the top
http://election.cbsnews.com/election2004/poll/poll_p___...

NBC: they don't say how many responsdents; they just give the stats
But I betcha it's 13660 also.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5297138 /

You are clouding the issue.
Let's clears away the fog.

The Final is 13660.
Period.
Fiction.

And it was 13047 before that.
We have the WP gif.
Truth.

And it was 11027 before that.
We have the CNN link.
Truth.

Focus on what the data is saying, not what the NEP is saying.
They are consumed in a web of their own making.

Four different exit polls?
WTF?

Just look at the first two for the truth.
Look at the final 13660 poll for the fiction.
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lukery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-29-05 12:11 AM
Response to Reply #19
20. hey - im just tryin to help
i recognise that those media sites have 13660

do u acknowledge that the NEP *themselves* say there was only 12,212?
its on their site, in their "method statement".
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lukery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-29-05 01:10 AM
Response to Reply #19
21. NEPalm
i agree that the NEP is caught in a web of deceipt - im just trying to help you ensure that your argument is bullet-proof.

here is NEP's explanation for the four different telephone exit polls. the NEP's explanation kinda makes plausible sense, at a minimum.

whether there are 4x phone polls or not *does not* change your point that theres a ceilling on the number of bush voters (assuming people answered the 'who did u vote for in 2000?' question correctly).

if the 13660 is correct, then isnt the big story that the NEP is demonstrably lying about the number of interviews? some people here have commented here that we need an easy simple way to convince the masses that there was fraud, well we can just point to the diference between what the NEP is saying, and what cnn et al is (*still*) saying. 13660 vs 12212. even red-state folk should be able to understand that :-)
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Old and In the Way Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-29-05 07:25 PM
Response to Reply #12
26. Here is a thread on the Ohio exit poll results that show
screen shots of how they cooked the data:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...
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Vidar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-28-05 10:55 PM
Response to Original message
17. Thanks for all your efforts on our behalf, TruthIsAll. Looks right on.
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