Five Easy Pieces: Solving the Party-ID Conundrum

[TruthIsAll]

Given that Kerry won the Preliminary Exit Poll of 13047
respondents, there was a Party ID problem: How to match the
Exit Poll to the Bush recorded vote when the traditional
Democratic advantage in Party ID (at least 3% in the prior
three elections) was apparently 3% in 2004? 	

Preliminary Exit Poll, 
13047 respondents, 
12:22am 11/03:
PARTY ID	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	
Democrat 	38%	9%	90%	1%
Republican 	35%	92%	7%	1%
Independent	27%	45%	52%	3%
	        100%	47.77%	50.69%	1.54%	
	      122.26	58.40	61.97	1.88	

Kerry is leading by 3.57 million votes.	
This one is a problem. 
In each of the last 3 elections, the Dems have 38-39% of
Party-ID.
What to do?				

1. Take 1% of Dems for Kerry, 1% of Dems for Nader, and
1% of Repubs for Kerry:
PARTY ID	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	
Democrat 	38%	11%	89%	0%
Republican 	35%	93%	6%	1%
Independent	27%	45%	52%	3%
	        100%	48.88%	49.96%	1.16%	
	      122.26	59.76	61.08	1.42	

Good. Picked up 2.25 million votes. 				
The Kerry lead is down to 1.32 million votes.
What now?				

2. Take 2% of Indies for Kerry:
PARTY ID	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	
Democrat 	38%	11%	89%	0%
Republican 	35%	93%	6%	1%
Independent	27%	47%	50%	3%
	        100%	49.42%	49.42%	1.16%	
	      122.26	60.42	60.42	1.42	

It's an exact  TIE!		
Time to go for the gusto.				

3. Reduce the Party-ID spread to 1%:
PARTY ID	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Democrat 	37%	11%	89%	0%	
Republican 	36%	93%	6%	1%
Independent	27%	47%	50%	3%
	        100%	50.24%	48.59%	1.17%	
	      122.26	61.42	59.41	1.43	

Ok, Bush is ahead by 2 million.	
He needs just 1 million more.				

4. Take 1% of the Indies for Kerry:
PARTY ID	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Democrat 	37%	11%	89%	0%
Republican 	36%	93%	6%	1%
Independent	27%	48%	49%	3%
	        100%	50.51%	48.32%	1.17%
	      122.26	61.75	59.08	1.43

Bush is leading by 2.68 million.
Getting real close.			

5. One last change to the Party-ID spread:
PARTY ID	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Democrat 	37%	11%	89%	0%
Republican 	37%	93%	6%	1%
Independent	26%	48%	49%	3%
	        100%	50.96%	47.89%	1.15%
	      122.26	62.30	58.55	1.41

Bush wins by 3.75 million votes.

We have our Mandate!			
				

[Old and In the Way]

1. It really is that easy, I think.

Get the macro #s figured out so you can announce the win with your broadcast media partners....then make damn sure you can keep the people from validating the results.

[dzika]

2. Help me understand the motivation behind this

If it is the NEP practice to always weight exit polls to the vote total then why wouldn't they just adjust all of the other characteristics by the same margins as the vote total?

Isn't the point of weighting to make the demographics makes sense based on the final vote total regardless of the party ID mix? Obviously, there were plenty of people that knew the mix in the raw polls. It seems that fooling around with the other numbers would just make the final exit poll look... suspicious.

[TruthIsAll]

3. Quick answer...

Changing the mix from 38/35/27 to 37/37/26 would not be enough... Kerry would still be the winner. So the Bush percentage share had to be increased in all the Party-ID groups.

For Bush to win by just changing the mix, it would have to be 35/39/26. And that is completely off the wall, especially since the Dems lead by 3% to 4% in each of the prior three elections.

The most they could get away with is 37/37/26. Even that is pulp fiction.

[LatePeriduct]

4. Wow now that is incredible!

That really makes it clear.

You should consider sending that one right to Steven Freeman!