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KERRY WINS 57 OF 60 NEP SCENARIOS: NEW VOTERS VS. 2000 VOTER TURNOUT

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-26-05 10:57 PM
Original message
KERRY WINS 57 OF 60 NEP SCENARIOS: NEW VOTERS VS. 2000 VOTER TURNOUT
Edited on Sat Mar-26-05 11:21 PM by TruthIsAll
Kerry wins 57 OF 60 TURNOUT/NEW VOTER SHARE scenarios, even
assuming 100% Bush 2000 voter turnout and 89% Gore turnout.

					KERRY NATIONAL VOTE SCENARIOS					
					New Voter Share and Gore 2000 Voter Turnout					
					(Assume 100% Turnout of Bush 2000 voters)					

	Assumed		Prelim.	     Prelim.			Final		
	Turnout	      7:38pm	     12:22am		    2:05pm 2000 Voter 	
	Bush	Gore	11027	     13047			13660	Bush	Gore

			KERRY SHARE OF NEW VOTERS							
Case			59%	58%	57%	56%	55%	54%		
1	100%	100.0%	52.28%	52.11%	51.94%	51.77%	51.59%	51.42%	39.82%	40.25%
2	100%	98.8%	52.12%	51.95%	51.77%	51.59%	51.41%	51.23%	39.82%	39.75%
3	100%	97.6%	51.96%	51.78%	51.60%	51.42%	51.23%	51.05%	39.82%	39.25%
4	100%	96.4%	51.80%	51.62%	51.43%	51.24%	51.05%	50.86%	39.82%	38.75%
5	100%	95.2%	51.64%	51.45%	51.26%	51.07%	50.87%	50.68%	39.82%	38.25%
										
6	100%	94.0%	51.48%	51.29%	51.09%	50.89%	50.69%	50.49%	39.82%	37.75%
7	100%	92.8%	51.32%	51.12%	50.92%	50.72%	50.51%	50.31%	39.82%	37.25%
8	100%	91.6%	51.16%	50.96%	50.75%	50.54%	50.33%	50.12%	39.82%	36.75%
9	100%	90.4%	51.00%	50.79%	50.58%	50.37%	50.15%	49.94%	39.82%	36.25%
10	100%	89.2%	50.84%	50.63%	50.41%	50.19%	49.97%	49.75%	39.82%	35.75%
										

Case 1 scenario detail for the Preliminary Exit Poll of 13047
in which Kerry won 57% of new voters. 

Assume full 100% turnout in 2004 of 101.097 million Bush and
Gore 2000 voters, assuming 3.667 (3.5%) of the original 104.77
died.	

Voted	2000
	      Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
21.16 	None	17.31%	41%	57%	2%
49.21 	Gore	40.25%	8%	91%	1%
48.68   Bush  39.82%	90%	9%	1%
 3.20 	Other  2.62% 	13%	71%	16%

TOTAL	        100%  46.50% 51.94% 1.57%	
122.26	Votes	122.26	56.85	63.50	1.91	

Kerry	Margin: 6.65 million votes				
										

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DELUSIONAL Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-26-05 11:06 PM
Response to Original message
1. Kick
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-26-05 11:51 PM
Response to Original message
2. GRAPH of Kerry Vote % based on Gore turnout % and New Voter share%
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-27-05 09:22 AM
Response to Original message
3. CORRECTION: KERRY WINS ALL 60 SCENARIOS (49.75% -48.75%)
Edited on Sun Mar-27-05 09:24 AM by TruthIsAll
Since the 3rd party vote was probably 1.5%, not the recorded 1%, (since votes shifted from Bednarik, Nader et al to Bush) then:

Kerry 49.75%
Bush 48.75%
Other 1.5%

EVEN ASSUMING THE WORST CASE FINAL EXIT POLL SCENARIO:
1) KERRY WON ONLY 54% OF NEW VOTERS
AND
2) 89.2% GORE VOTER TURNOUT VS. 100% FOR BUSH,
KERRY IS THE WINNER BY 1% (1.2 MILLION VOTES).

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endor_moon Donating Member (8 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-27-05 10:14 AM
Response to Original message
4. if only Kerry really wanted to be President
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-27-05 10:19 AM
Response to Original message
5. WHAT IF A HIGHER % OF GORE VOTERS TURNED OUT THEN BUSH VOTERS?
Edited on Sun Mar-27-05 10:27 AM by TruthIsAll
Then it was a major landslide for Kerry, depending on the
percentage turnout differential. 

					KERRY NATIONAL VOTE SCENARIOS					
					New Voter Share and Bush 2000 Voter Turnout					
					(Assume 100% Turnout of Gore 2000 voters)					

	Assumed		Prelim.	     Prelim.			Final		
	Turnout	      7:38pm	     12:22am		    2:05pm 2000 Voter 	
	Bush	Gore	11027	     13047			13660	Bush	Gore


			KERRY SHARE OF NEW VOTERS
							
Case			59%	58%	57%	56%	55%	54%		

1	100.0%	100.0%	52.28%	52.11%	51.94%	51.77%	51.59%	51.42%	39.82%	40.25%
2	98.8%	100.0%	52.53%	52.36%	52.18%	52.00%	51.82%	51.64%	39.32%	40.25%
3	97.6%	100.0%	52.78%	52.60%	52.42%	52.24%	52.05%	51.87%	38.82%	40.25%
4	96.4%	100.0%	53.03%	52.85%	52.66%	52.47%	52.28%	52.09%	38.32%	40.25%
5	95.1%	100.0%	53.28%	53.09%	52.90%	52.71%	52.51%	52.32%	37.82%	40.25%
										
6	93.9%	100.0%	53.53%	53.34%	53.14%	52.94%	52.74%	52.54%	37.32%	40.25%
7	92.7%	100.0%	53.78%	53.58%	53.38%	53.18%	52.97%	52.77%	36.82%	40.25%
8	91.5%	100.0%	54.03%	53.83%	53.62%	53.41%	53.20%	52.99%	36.32%	40.25%
9	90.3%	100.0%	54.28%	54.07%	53.86%	53.65%	53.43%	53.22%	35.82%	40.25%
10	89.1%	100.0%	54.53%	54.32%	54.10%	53.88%	53.66%	53.44%	35.32%	40.25%


			Kerry Margin (millions of votes))				
							
	Bush	Kerry Share of New voters					
Case	Turn  59%	58%	57%	56%	55%	54%

1	100%	7.29	6.86	6.44	6.02	5.59	5.17
2	98.8%	7.90	7.46	7.03	6.59	6.16	5.72
3	97.6%	8.51	8.06	7.61	7.17	6.72	6.27
4	96.4%	9.12	8.66	8.20	7.74	7.28	6.82
5	95.1%	9.73	9.26	8.79	8.31	7.84	7.37
							
6	93.9%	10.34	9.86	9.37	8.89	8.40	7.92
7	92.7%	10.95	10.46	9.96	9.46	8.97	8.47
8	91.5%	11.56	11.06	10.55	10.04	9.53	9.02
9	90.3%	12.18	11.66	11.13	10.61	10.09	9.57
10	89.1%	12.79	12.25	11.72	11.19	10.65	10.12








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