|
<<Where most of us erred was in believing our own turnout HYPE. The much talked about youth vote, our GOTV effort, cell phone users not polled, the new registrations, etc.
When I saw the youth turnout was the same 17% as 2000, I knew we were in trouble.>>
One thing I've learned, since crying my eyes out after volunteering for Mondale/Ferraro in 1984, is that whenever someone tells you not to listen to the polls...don't listen to the person telling you this. The polls ARE right, the pollsters are pros, they're paid handsomely for what they do, and they wouldn't get paid if they didn't do it well. They know who the "likely voters" are, they poll them, and the results don't lie. It was, as many predicted (me included) 2000 revisited.
Yes, there is still a chance K/E could take Ohio. But the fact that it's boiled down to just Ohio is something that shouldn't have happened. But it did. To repost a couple messages I posted to the Smirking Chimp boards:
- - - - - - -
No, I'm not enjoying this. I just want to explain why I said what I did, because it's an important lesson we need to learn.
I don't know how many of you have seen my posts in the past couple weeks, but you'll recall I was cautioning those of you predicting a Kerry landslide. You'll recall that I mentioned having volunteered for the first time for the Mondale/Ferraro ticket, and have followed every election closely since. (My site may be a humor site, but if you look at all the song parodies I've written, you'll see just how closely I've been observing politics for the past 20 years. Not a plug, just a statement of fact.)
The reason I cited for caution in our optimism was that, in 1984, the "polls don't vote, people do" mantra was proven horribly, embarassingly wrong when Mondale lost everything but MN and DC. Yeah, we had the bullshit polls about the cell phone voters, but the real polls indicated all along that it was going to be a close, close race, coming down to one state -- 2000 revisited. I'd said that we wouldn't know who our President was on 11/2, possibly not even till December, depending on how long it takes to (try to) straighten up the mess about the votes cast in said state.
Well, I've never been so UNhappy to be right in all my life. It's all just as I predicted, only in OH instead of FL. The people on CNN expressed amazement that this election was playing out so closely to the predictions, and is so much like the 2000 election. Well, duh, read the freakin' polls!
Lesson learned: Polls DO reflect the electorate. Individuals differ, but statistics repeat. Next time, if you hear on the news that it's going to be a close race, keep the champagne on ice and please don't go around predicting a landslide, because it only gives the Freeper types more to laugh at. Pollsters have been in this business a lot longer than we have; they're pros, they're paid for what they do. We need to take the polls seriously, and learn from them, i.e., what's our candidate doing wrong? (That's on another thread, so I won't go into it here.)
The other lesson I learned from 1984 was...don't get too high on the thought that your guy's going to take it all (just because you see big crowds at rallies), when the polls tell you otherwise. That's a good way to end up taking more Xanax than Laura Bush. Take the pollsters seriously, and you'll save yourself a lot of grief. Take it from one who's been there in 1984 and 1988, let's not go around predicting landslides until our guy has the numbers to back it up.....
- - - - - - -
I'd like to take this opportunity to point out some other things the K/E camp did wrong -- even if they win, sheer incompetence is what brought it to this point. (I.e., Ohio being the deciding factor.)
1) Kerry spent way too much time sucking up to vets. He seems to forget that we have a volunteer army now, which means that the vast, vast majority of people who enlist do so because they're flag-waving ignorant Republican kill-the-ragheads types. I can't remember the location, but on C-SPAN I saw him giving a speech to a group of military types (shortly after Bush had addressed a similar crowd in that city). It made me sick...Kerry was going on and on about this veterans shit, and the crowd was dead silent except for the occasional smattering of applause. (You can imagine, I hope, that Bush got a much warmer reception.) All this sucking up hurt Kerry two ways: First, the vets didn't give a shit and most of them hate his guts, so he didn't win them over. Secondly, it gave the impression that Kerry's stuck in the past, and can't get past Vietnam. A lot of times, he sounded embarassingly like Al Bundy in Married...with Children, boasting about his heroics in high school football, while in his current life he was a lowly shoe salesman. Shit, even John McCain doesn't dwell on Vietnam the way Kerry did...is it any wonder that, when Kerry leans so heavily on that crutch, that it was so easy for Bu$hCo to kick that crutch hard enough to break it with the Smear Boat Vets ads? Moral of the story: OK, you won medals for your service in 'Nam. Now, let's focus on your service as a lawyer and a senator, so we know what the hell you've done since 1971, m'kay? And, if you're such a fighter, WTF did you roll over for so long when the Smear Boat Vets were slicing and dicing you? It makes swing voters think, "If this guy can't hold his own against an opponent in an election, how could he hold his own against our enemies?" You can't let doubts like that creep up in an election this close. It's fatal.
In fact, this election reminds me a lot of 1988, when Dukakis had a lead and ultimately lost it. SNL did a great skit about those Presidential debates, where "Dukakis" said, "I can't believe I'm losing to this guy!" As Kerry's lead dwindled in so many states, I heard that line in my head again and again....
2) John Edwards' mouth is forever writing checks that his ass can't cash. In the primary, when he was saying he could turn his state blue, I nearly puked on the spot. The reason he ran for President was that he knew he couldn't even get re-elected to his old seat in the Senate! In the VP debate, he had a chance to kick Cheney in the balls by calling him on that lie of never having met Edwards in the Senate because he was absent so often. But no, he lets another lie get halfway around the world before truth puts on its boots. How the hell did he win court cases, when he can't even refute such a blatant lie? And this lie helped make people think he didn't have enough experience to be VP. He also should have extolled the virtues of trial lawyers who protect people from slimeballs like Cheney. The theme song of that debate should've been Hall & Oates' "Missed Opportunity".
3) I know this is going to piss off a lot of you, but understand that we have a tendency to preach to the converted...I'm looking at this next issue from the POV of Average America.
Teresa Heinz Kerry sucks. There, I've said it. If Kerry wins, she'll be one of the worst First Ladies we've had. Let me count the ways. There's a fine line between "outspoken" and "obnoxious", and THK tripped over that line and fell sprawling into "obnoxious" long ago.
There was debate about this several weeks ago, but when THK said that storm victims should go without clothes because other things were more important...let's just say that, if Laura Bush had said this, we'd have been screaming for her head on a platter. In a climate like those hurricane-ravaged areas, clothing is every bit as essential as food and water. It was horribly insensitive and inexcusable, and only the most die-hard THK supporters could think otherwise.
Speaking of Laura Bush, THK said in a recent TV profile that she thinks Laura Bush is the best first lady ever, and is her role model as a first lady. At the time, I shouted at my TV, "Hey, bitch, haven't you heard of Hillary Clinton?" (Yes, I'm a Hillary supporter, so please don't say I object to opinionated women. See above reference to the "fine line". I cross that line a lot, but I make sure it's in appropriate places. THK, take note.) Then THK made that infamous statement about Laura Bush never having had a job. Gee, if Laura's your hero, why the fuck don't you know about her work record? Great way to offend every teacher and librarian in the nation.
It seems to me that, no matter how many languages THK speaks, she is still one of the worst speakers I've ever heard...or seen. If Laura Bush is on Xanax, then this broad must be wasted on hardcore sedatives. She talks so damned slow, you fall asleep before she gets to the end of a sentence--except when she's saying something obnoxious like "Shove it", now that comes out clear as a bell. And her appearance...well, it kills me to admit it, but Laura Bush could give this woman lessons in poise and grace. You know you're a skank when you can't even look as classy as a murdering doper like LB. She always looks as if she just woke up from falling asleep in the tour bus, with her hair a matted mess falling into her glazed eyes. Then she gets up on the podium and speaks like a timid little mouse. Honest to God, it's like she's on drugs that haven't quite worn off, every time she makes a speech. In short, THK was a real liability to this ticket. I'm sorry, I know a lot of you will be upset by all this, but I'm just being honest. You need to look at her, not from your POV, but from the POV of a swing voter. And THK doesn't have the class or personality to swing those people in our direction.
And JFK made me sick when he'd get on TV shows and gush over how "outspoken" she was. He should have been telling her to shut the fuck up, at least until he was elected. But no, he acts like her obnoxious statements were cute. They weren't. For all this woman's money, one would think that her family could have afforded to send her to finishing school....
For the record, Elizabeth Edwards would make a great Second or even First Lady. She's down to earth and articulate--a class act. If K/E lose this one, I'm going to miss her.
Sure, Bu$hCo is trying to steal Ohio--but if K/E had taken other states, Ohio wouldn't even be an issue. What I've written may be a bitter pill for everyone here to swallow, and I'm sure I'll get flamed for it because emotions are running high right now. But I need to remind you that I've been observing politics for 20 years--I know what sells, and what doesn't. Instead of getting pissed off at critiques like mine, we all need to learn from these mistakes so that we can take this country back in 2008. Or at least try to get more Dems in office in 2006, to counteract this evil empire.
- - - - - - -
OK, flame me if you like, but after you vent, please re-read my post and let's all try to learn from our mistakes so that our next candidate won't end up either in the courts, or sent packing. Please!
|