Vote for Lib Dems will not let in Tories

[Briar]

Vote for Lib Dems will not let in Tories
By Andrew Grice, Political Editor

Labour's attempts to warn its wavering supporters that a vote for the Liberal Democrats could allow Michael Howard into No. 10 "by the back door" was undermined yesterday in a detailed study carried out for The Independent. The study found that a swing of 11.5 per cent from Labour voters to the Liberal Democrats could deprive Mr Blair of his overall Commons majority but it would be virtually impossible for such defections - at even twice that rate - to let in the Conservatives to form a government.

John Curtice, the respected psephologist and professor of politics at Strathclyde University, who carried out the analysis, said: "Labour's claim that switching from Labour to the Liberal Democrats could enable Mr Howard to win the election is highly misleading."

...

Mr Blair led the co-ordinated campaign and it became a recurrent theme on many of the Labour campaign spots. However, the "Lab-to-Lib Dem swingometer" Professor Curtice devised shows that, even if there is a 9 per cent swing from Labour to the Liberal Democrats, Labour would still have an overall majority of 48.

Even with a massive 15 per cent swing, Labour would still be the largest party in a hung parliament with 50 more seats than the Tories. Those figures are based on the Tories doing no better than the 33 per cent share of the vote they won in 2001, which is also in line with their current opinion poll rating.

....

More at:

http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/story.jsp?story=634378

[Ken Burch]

1. That is reassuring...

But I wish that Labour were standing in this election, rather than what Billy Bragg has so accurately called "The Tony Party."

[non sociopath skin]

2. A little.

But sitting here in a County which will almost certainly see a Labour administration replaced on May 6th by a Tory-LibDem "anti-socialist coalition," I still fear the Option That Dare Not Speak Its Name - a National Tory-LibDem coalition.

The Skin

[Briar]

4. Ah, but

Tony's party is anti socialist too. Like the Tories and Lib Dem's New Labour is tailored to appeal to the (materialistically) aspirational middle class.

And Gordon wouldn't be better: he's all enthused by Bush style faith initiatives...

[non sociopath skin]

5. So are you saying, Briar, that a LibDem/Tory coalition would be ....

... better than a Labour government under Brown? Or just the same?

If the former, I disagree. If the latter, I suggest you re-read the Tory manifesto.

The Skin

[Ken Burch]

7. I don't think that will EVER happen again in the UK

Considering that the old Liberals basically agreed to let their remainint support be wiped out in a series of anti-Labour "electoral pacts" with the Tories between 1929 and 1951.

They'd have to be complete "prats" to let themselves be talked into that again.

[Briar]

3. Oh, good one...

edited to add that this is a response to Ken.

[non sociopath skin]

6. Don't many of us, Ken?

But what we got is what we got. Bottom line, Blair/Brown or Howard.

I know where I have to go.

The Skin

[Taxloss]

8. It WILL let in the Tories.

in the general election, the Tories gathered 33% of the vote, only 0.5% more than they did in the 2001 election; the reason they picked up so many seats was thanks to the Yellow Tories, AKA the Lib Dems. Lib Dems stealing votes from Labour letting in Tories - about 40 examples right there.

[D-Notice]

9. LIb Dems

didn't "steal votes" from Labour, what happened is that a lot of people who voted Labour last time we're completely opposed to voting for Labour last time (due to Iraq, civil liberties, etc) & decided to vote for a party which represents their views...

What happened is that Labour turned people off from them, towards the Lib Dems; so actually Labour GAVE votes to the Lib Dems, intentionally or not...

[T_i_B]

10. This "stealing" votes shtick is nonsense.

If I don''t like the party I voted for last time and vote for another party then that vote is not stolen. I gave my vote to that other party of my own free will.

And if I get fed up with that party I can change how I vote next time too. That is the wonderful thing about democracy, you make your own choices. And I for one am not about to compromise that by kowtowing to tactical voting tricks or "vote for us or it's the Tories" scaremongering.

[Taxloss]

11. It's stealing because the Lib Dems campaigned under false pretences

claiming to be something they are not. They're just opportunists. Why else would Chucky announce a policy review immediately after the votes were cast? Everyone who voted Lib Dem was voting for some sort of phantasm, and now they've scraped together a few more seats they won't care about the Labour defectors. They are NOT an opposition, or anything close to a leftist party. Look at their record in local government - they form coalitions with the Tories far more frequently than they do with Labour.

Sure, you can vote however you like, but with the Lib Dems you will not get what you thought you voted for.

[muriel_volestrangler]

12. As opposed to Blair announcing white papers on health and education

in other words, a policy review? Or the policy review in the last parliament that introduced university topup fees after a specific manifesto commitment not to?

Face it, there's no large leftist party in Britain these days. If you want to look at records, look at Blair's over 8 years. PFI is a right wing policy, and it's the basis of Brown's economic policy.

Your claim that the votes were stolen from Labour speaks volumes about the Labour party's sense of entitlement. Most people would think that votes belonged to the voters - but not New Labour, it seems. Arrogance isn't pretty.

[Taxloss]

13. You're assuming I voted Labour, or am a member of the party.

I did not vote Labour, and have never been a member of the Labour party. I voted Labour in 1997 and 2001, but they exhausted my patience. I voted independent. The topup fees fiasco was one of my many reasons, including foundation hospitals, city academies, casinos, and chiefly civil liberties. Oh, and Iraq.

All governing parties have a sense of entitlement, it goes with the territory. I concur that there is no large leftist party; I personally feel very disenfranchised as I consider Respect to be a vanity project on a par with Veritas.

Nevertheless, the Lib Dem approach is one of endless deceit. I say again: contrast their record in local government with their parliamentary claims. I would vote for them if they represented an alternative, but they're just Yellow Tories. I know that many decent people support them and I do not want to insult their supporters; but the party leadership is a mass of hidden agendas and ideological confusion.

[muriel_volestrangler]

15. OK, sorry for assuming you voted Labour

but I'm very surprised then that you regard it as 'vote stealing'. That choice of words implies the votes belonged by right to Labour.

And I'm also surprised that you regard a vote for the Liberal Democrats as letting in the Tories, but were willing to vote against Labour yourself.

[Taxloss]

16. Maybe "stealing" was the wrong word, but I do fear that

many LD voters do not have a clear picture of what their party really stands for, and I feel there are many in the LD hierarchy who are happy to keep it that way.

If you look at the results, while the Lib Dems were winning seats from Labour, they were losing them to the Tories, and this severely limited their success. Their electoral strategy will change as a result - expect a rightwards shift. I'm not saying that it's "wrong" to vote Lib Dem, but my personal feeling is one of intense distrust towards the party.

Not that Labour wins any points on that score, as I don't remember top-up fees and Iraq in the 2001 manifesto, and the appointment of Andrew Adonis is a disgrace.

My vote was the product of the vagaries of our electoral system; living as I do in a safe Conservative seat (Cities of London & Westminster, Mark Field) I could register my disgust with Tony without fear of actually influencing the result. (For the record, I voted for Brian Haw - independent for peace. A "pure" protest vote.) Had I lived in a Labour marginal, I would probably have voted Labour.

[D-Notice]

17. If you live in a Labour marginal

the best option is to look at the Labour MP's voting record via They Work For You.

There's not much point in voting Labour if their candidate's a pro-war, anti-civil liberties Bliarite as they're no better than a Tory.

That's what I did (currently in Cchester a Lab-Con marginal) & decided that as my MP was a pro-war anti-civil liberties Bliarite, I'd vote for Lib Dems to punish her.

The Tory guy was no better, but she just managed to scrape a victory.

[T_i_B]

14. That's what happens when they take you for a "core voter"

Your claim that the votes were stolen from Labour speaks volumes about the Labour party's sense of entitlement. Most people would think that votes belonged to the voters - but not New Labour, it seems. Arrogance isn't pretty.

That is what happens to any party that feels that it has a clear hold on a segment of the electorate. That section of the electorate gets taken for granted as the party pursues those sections of the population considered to be "floating voters".

As a result the Labour party has adopted said attitude and has nothing to offer its core voters these days other then scaremongering about everyone else. People are voting Labour thinking that it's either them or the Tories when in fact they are virtually identical to the Tories! Now if that's not voting for a party under false pretenses then I don't know what is. It's not stealing votes but it is a bit of a con if you ask me.

Personally I find this to be exasperating as I am quite happy to change sides whenever I feel like it. However, if parties think they can guess my views based on what a marketing database tells them they have another thing coming.

[RogueTrooper]

18. Is this thread still going?

Goodness me! Is this going to be the British version of candidate wars? ;-)

[Anarcho-Socialist]

19. Yeah...

...I always thought we Brits were less hot-headed than our American comrades over in GD.

Well, I actually think we still are. :) Maybe not by such a big margin though.

[Taxloss]

20. But there's only about five of us involved.

And I think we're all adult enough to make up.

[D-Notice]

21. Sez you!

;-)