Final predictions?

[Minstrel Boy]

There are so many tight three-way races shaping up I'm not confident of a seat count projection, but I am of the general picture: Conservative minority, Liberal steep drop, NDP significant increase.

But for what it's worth, this is in the ballpark of what I expect to see:

CON: 146
LIB: 59
BQ: 61
NDP: 41
IND: 1 (Andre Arthur, Portneuf)

[enigma000]

1. hmmmmm

Fascists: 135
Crooks: 82
Traitors: 63
Socialists: 26 (could be low on this....)
Ind: 1

[MrPrax]

2. I better grab a ticket...

Lemme have a couple Bingo, a couple of those Gold Pot scratches, and the rest in quik piks...

and the numbers are:

1. 136 - ConNNN!!!!!<--in the manner of William Shatner in ST2>
   
2. 93 - Red Palour gang
   
3. 64 - Traitors (I think they will get more...the Tory bounce is nothing)
   
4. 15 - Social Conscience Party© (the BC support is way overstated)
   

That's 308 I think...
Got my Keno numbers, got my beer and I'll be waiting for the computer board to post my numbers...

Gentlemen

[Mother Jones]

3. Am I the only one here

who feels the Green Party will take a seat this time?


I thought they were a shoe in for at least 1 in B.C.

[democracy eh]

9. if nothing else, the Green pop vote will surprise some folks

between Cross country check-up yesterday and the office water cooler today, and the fact the people are actively anti-green (taking the time to discount specific policies) I think the Green numbers are going up. Heck I talked a few folks into voting Green. There is still a strong level of public disgust with the big 3. EXPLANATION I am in a SAFE SAFE Conservative seat, they will get 50%+. The lib and NDP will get 21-25% each, so strategic voting isn't even remotely a possibility.

as much as the gulf islands candidate winning would be great, David Cherneshenko in Ottawa would be even better!

[Minstrel Boy]

10. About the Green vote in Ottawa Centre

Cherneshenko won't win the riding (an NDP seat), but he could steal enough votes to throw it to the Liberals. Which is apparently what some local conservatives would prefer to see happen, since the Conservative Party won't win it, either. (He was the only local non-Conservative endorsed by the Ottawa Citizen.)

[daleo]

4. Out on a limb here:

I think the Con and Lib seat count and popular vote will be quite close. I would put the seat count for both parties between 100 and 120 (zero sum game here, if one is closer to 120 the other will be closer to 100). Each will have a popular vote in the 32-34% range. Same remark applies re the zero sum game.

NDP will be in the high 20's for seats, and high teens for popular vote. BQ will be in the mid 50's for seats.

How's that for famous last words?

[ClusterFreak]

24. Nice going....pretty damn much picked it!

[daleo]

26. Thanks, AX10 did even better, though. n/t

[Roho]

5. hmm.. mine...

Con 125
lib 78
bq 57
ndp 47
ind 1

................

How do you think Olivia Chow will do this time around?

[Monkeybumper]

7. The View from here

Conservatives 151
Liberals 67
Bloc 61
NDP 29
I think Chow will lose again .

[Canuckistanian]

15. I like yours the best

But that's probably a bit too optimistic.

[Mother Jones]

17. I think she'll take it this time

She didn't lose by that much last time.....I saw Paul Martin was there just 2 days or so ago, trying to hang on to it. I think this time, it'll go NDP.


Ok, so I'm biased because my friend is in the riding, and volunteering legal councel. :P

[terrya]

6. That's well short of a majority, right?

It will be pretty much impossible for Harper and the Conservatives to implement their agenda...correct? I hope so.

[Roho]

8. imo

yes you are correct.

And, it might actually be the best result.

A second failure for Harper to win a majority might trigger his ouster as many conservatives would like to give the much more likable Mckay a shot at being leader.

Anything but a liberal majority is sure to end Martin's short reign as Liberal leader.

A minority con government will be hamstrung to get their hard right agenda passed and would give Canadians a chance to see what an asshole he really is without suffering to much. If Harper keeps his leadership position he will undoubtedly try and force another election withing 2 yrs which would mean 3 federal elections in 6 yrs. Two of those three elections prompted by Conservative lust for power.

The Canadian electorate will not take that well and the CPC would suffer.

The above is all just opinion however.

[Canuckistanian]

18. If the winners have less than the rest put together

It's a Minority Government.

[Manix]

11. ....let's see....mmmm

CON 125
LIB 100
BQ 61
NDP 22

[AX10]

12. I could live with that.

The Con minority would be smaller than the Lib minority.

[Manix]

13. If it has to be a con minority, I would like to see the only

combination that works for them to stay alive is a CON/BQ coalition. It would be much fun to watch the
right wing kooks and the left wing seperatists lying in the same bed!

[Darth_Kitten]

14. Let the fur fly!

Meow. ;)

[AX10]

16. My Take:

After researching the CREDIBLE polls and the poll positions of each candidates in the competitive ridings, as well as talking with daleo:

CON: 120
LIB: 108
BQ: 49
NDP: 30
IND: 1

...and now for a parody:

Neo-Fascists<-that's not a parody: 120
Midguided Establishmentarians: 108
Opportunists: 49
Naderites: 30
Unwilling to Take a Stand: 1
;-)

[SidDithers]

23. Looks like you win the prize!...

nice predicting :)

sid

[AX10]

28. Thanks

;-)

[AX10]

30. What did I win?

:shrug:

[SidDithers]

31. Your autographed pic...

of Prime Minister Stephen Harper is on the way.



Sid

Edit: bad photoshop, but I was rushed

[daleo]

25. You nearly nailed it

Right down to getting the Independent, although I would have never guessed the radio shock jock. Pretty amazing.

[AX10]

27. Thanks. I'm a little suprised I got so close myself.

;-) ;-)

[Canuckistanian]

29. Wow, uncanny accuracy

And, ....hey, are you allowed to call NDPers Naderites?

Isn't that against DU rules?

I'm telling.

[HEyHEY]

19. Okay here

Con - 120
BQ- 58
NDP - 23
Libs 103
Ind - 2 I'm hoping Irene Thorpe does it too

[AX10]

20. That I could live with too.

:kick:

[HEyHEY]

32. Bragging rights! I came pretty close

Underestimated the NDP though...damn AX10 came closer!

[glarius]

21. My prediction is that if the Cons win a majority I will be physically ill!

I don't have any numbers as long as the Cons don't get a majority...:puke: I'm an incurable optomist and am still holding out hope for a Liberal minority...:D

[CHIMO]

22. Don't Know

Might have to take the assumption that most of the mud has stuck and the NDP vote will reflect historical leanings.

With the $1.75 per vote it may have been an incentive for establishing a rational for a vote. I have the feeling that there is a feeling that people are not sure about Martin.

Many are not sure about Harper and his gang. It is hard to tell what the feeling is across Ontario. I was looking for some type of resurgence of NDP in Saskatchewan and for the NDP to win some of the Conservative seats in BC that were close in the last election.

Thought that the Conservative surge Quebec would open up some for the Liberals but with the Liberals at such a low number it probably won't amount to anything.

The Martimes seems to be trending to the Conservatives which doesn't seem to fit but perhaps it is a calling of accounts for the old PC accounts to get Mulroney's man back in the driver's seat.

Last week a prof was on the CBC radio forecasting 144 seats for the Conservatives based on his formula of the polling results.

I really can't contribute a number.