Seat count projections... interesting

[Pierre Trudeau]

http://democraticspace.com/canada/2005election/latest-projections.pdf (PDF file)

The current projection from democraticSPACE predicts a Harper minority:

Con - 131 seats
Lib - 85
NDP - 33
BQ - 58
Ind - 1

As you can see, my musings about a Conservative-NDP partnership might indeed turn out to be well-founded. According to the projection, they can easily form a majority between them.


Scroll down through the riding-by-riding projections to see how your area is doing.

Interestingly, it suggests the NDP are poised to pick up a handful of Toronto ridings... including my own, Davenport, which has been Liberal since 1962!!!!
(i.e. "THIS IS HUGH111")

Also, it predicts Olivia Chow to win by a safe margin in Trinity-Spadina, and Peggy Nash to wrest Parkdale from the Liberals, thereby painting downtown Toronto orange from Yonge Street west to the Humber (the NDP could also take Beaches). And while most of Mississauga falls to the Cons, within Toronto proper the Liberals might hold on to their "fortress" (even Ignatieff might retain Etobicoke south by the skin of his teeth). Not a single seat inside Toronto is projected to go to the conservatives.

In B.C. it projects seat gains for the Liberals and NDP but not the Cons.

Alberta will go 100% Conservative (no landslide for Annie this time).

In the prairies, no seats will change (!!) although there are some close races.

The Cons might pick up a couple seats in Atlantic Canada, but the numbers are very close.

Finally, the NDP will pick up Western Arctic in a "safe win".


As you can see, most of the dramatic change will happen in BC (where the Cons will not do well) and Ontario where the Liberals will haemorrhage seats to both the Cons and the NDP. Still, a lot can happen between now and Monday. When you notice all the red squares in that projection, you realize there are quite a few ridings which could be decided by a couple hundred votes or less.

The good news: it demonstrates that even though the Cons' overall poll numbers are good, all that additional support in Quebec still won't translate into more than three seats at the most for them. So they still are well short of a majority. I hope. (gulp)

PS. You can also peruse the "strategic voters guide" at that site, if such a thing turns you on:

http://democraticspace.com/blog/strategic-voting-guide/

[V. Kid]

1. One of the problems with this...

...I think is that he should weight polls ie: ones with bigger sample sizes, and less MOE's (Margins of Error) need to be more heavily considered than ones with tiny regional samples and big MOE's. I really doubt the Liberals will be able to pick up three net seats in BC, but because one poll showed they were at 40% in the province he had to factor that in.

[AX10]

2. This is not good.

Are these projections acurate? Also, I was hoping that the Liberals and NDP would have more combined seats than the Cons.

[daleo]

3. A Conservative government supported by the NDP wouldn't last long

I would give it six months. I don't see them sharing common ground on much. Harper would try to find some issue that would force the NDP to bring it down, hoping to capitalize on what he thinks is Conservative momentum. I think it worked for Dief, not for Clark.

Never count out landslide Annie.

[jackbourassa]

4. If these numbers hold...

...we'll have another election by the end of the year. The Tories may get away with a strong 145-154 seat majority, where they might pick off a few Liberal/Bloc votes on some issues - but to need 24 extra votes is nearly impossible.

I concur that the Tories are headed for a minority, and a majority is probably unlikely. So depending on how we play our cards now, we might be back in power by the end of the year.

But first we need to get rid of Martin.

[AX10]

5. What about the media?

They have been too freindly towards Harper.