Can Kerry win in Marion County?

[bluestateguy]

I've done some checking and noticed that Democratic presidential candidates have been slowly increasing their percentages in Marion County. Al Gore actually improved in 2000 over Bill Clinton's 1996 performance. I wonder if this year John Kerry might actually turn Marion County blue. Some numbers:

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/

2000

Gore 47.9% 134,189
Bush 49.2% 137,810
Nader 1.1% 2,967
Other 1.8% 4,937

1996

Clinton 44.1% 124,448
Dole 47.2% 133,329
Perot 7.6% 21,358
Other 1.1% 3,079

1992

Clinton 37.8% 122,234
Bush 43.7% 141,369
Perot 17.9% 57,878
Other 0.7% 2,309

1988

Dukakis 40.8% 128,627
Bush 58.6% 184,519
Other 0.6% 1,949

Republican victory margin:

1988 19.8%
1992 5.9%
1996 3.1%
2000 1.3%

[salin]

1. Back in the late sixties,

there was a move to incorporate the entire county into the City of Indianapolis under something called "Unigov". Richard Lugar became the first Mayor under the system which was perceived to be a play to prevent democrats from holding power in the city by incorporating the more republican township areas. Funny thing, though. Five years ago the first Democrat since the unigov move was elected Mayor. Last year he was reelected - AND for the first time (I believe) the city-county council turned over to a democratic majority. That said, I don't know that Kerry will carry Marion County, but it is possible that the margin will continue to shrink. Then again, the other factor is that the power in the statewide republican party is the business class in Indy - they have often tanked more radical republican runs for statewide top offices or have fled support when those folks get the nomination (hence the strong courting of Daniels before he declared - he is perceived to be a moderate and successful businessman and for some reason folks ignore his track record at the OMB.) These are the very types of republicans who have been publically declaring support against BUsh around the country - if they break from bush - then combined with the growing democratic voters - it is completely possible that Kerry takes the county. Wouldn't effect the overall state, however.