Why is everyone so jubilant? The polls aren't that good. See todays

[saracat]

Rasmussen . And electoral-vote.com has the electoral vote going to Bush by a large margin. I think we have a lot of work to do. We have made some progress but it is not over and now is not the time for overconfidence.

[Catch22Dem]

1. It's a damn good thing I don't care about polls. (n/t)

[jean]

2. ignore polls as you do trolls please

[NewYorkerfromMass]

3. Because Bush's debate performance was like a gift from God

and there will be later dividends.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x943560

[lancdem]

13. I missed that thread

You make an excellent point.

[DoYouEverWonder]

4. Because the polls are bullshit

all Bush has left are his hard core Bushbots, which will not be near enough to carry this election. Bush is Toast. Screw the polls.

[Melodybe]

5. Because I have taken statistics and I know that all polls are bull shit.

4 out of 5 dentists are actually 4 out of 5 dentists, not 80% of dentists as they would have you believe.

The polls are lies, used to condition us to believe that Americans are so fucking stupid that they will still vote Bush even if they have no job, no healthcare, and a dead child in Iraq.

If you believe the polls then they win, just like 2000.

[saracat]

10. I agree. That is why I posted this! People are rolling in glee at the

good polls and mourning the bad ones .The point is neither are worth listening to. And regardless of what we may believe ,we should be working like there is no tommorrow. And we need to lower expectations. We can't have them overestimate us the next time!

[jrthin]

18. Saracat, I hear you, and

you've got a great point. The rethugs are setting us up and we shouldn't let them.

[saracat]

21. And That is what I am worried about. We even have people overestimating

the Edwards debate. We should be driving down expectations not raising the bar. No one seems to realize the Kerry victory lowered the bar for Bush so much if he doesn't drool he will be seen as a winner. Victory is a double edged sword for us right now and the repugs know it!

[progressivebydesign]

26. I'm confused.. that's not what you posted..

.. you posted that the polls are NOT good, and we should be worried.

The polls, showing movement in our direction are good.. because we've ALL found, as have major organizations and political scientists, that the polls are badly skewed republican now. If, in spite of that, we are still either tying or slightly ahead.. then it's all good.

Hell. Gallup showed Bush leading Gore 52 to 38% right before last election.

[Ducks In A Row]

6. we don't care about polls.

[Inland]

7. Polls are tied, and that's good

The polls all same the same thing--tie. That's not a bad position. Yeah, I'd like Kerry to be twenty points up too.

Also, the state by state polls reported by the electoral count sites are old, that is, prior to the bump Kerry got in the debate, some still suffering under the bump or simple bungling (whichever you like) of the post RNC few weeks.

Kerry even in a national poll will translate into a Kerry electoral victory--as soon as the state by state polls come out.

[Roland99]

8. electoral-vote.com is total CRAP!

A lot of their state polls are using Mason/Dixon. Might as well use Bush campaign projections.

[lancdem]

9. It's way too early for state polls to be reflecting any post-debate

momentum.

Who here is overconfident? We're just glad to see Kerry gaining momentum and the Dems reenergized. Bush is no shoo-in, and the public now knows it. That alone is progress.

[berner59]

12. "it's the newbies, stupid"....

Should be Kerry's new slogan... The new registered voters along with massive turnout is all we need... This election has become a media event so I expect amazing voter turnout and I'm thinking Kerry landslide...really...

[Pepperbelly]

11. because God is on OUR side, not theirs. nt

[Melodybe]

14. B/c we are on God's side and they aren't

[Pepperbelly]

17. it couldn't be any other way. nt

[mvd]

15. I'm jubilent because nearly all show some movement our way

As far as Rasmussen goes, the only numbers that stood out were the ones for PA, and I don't believe that for a second.

I had just about given up on Gore until the last minute because of the polls. I think that polls might be really be underestimiating Kerry's support because of new voters.

[ibegurpard]

16. momentum.

eom

[progressivebydesign]

25. I believe that's Joementum. n/t

[dolstein]

19. Because most DU'ers believe that everyone thinks as they do

So they latch on to any scrap of poll data which confirms what they believe in their hearts -- that you'd have to be an idiot to vote for Bush. While I agree with their sentiments, I'm enough of a realist to recognize that there are an awful lot of people who see the world very differently than I do. There are a lot of people at the lower end of the economic scale who couldn't care less about Bush's tax cuts for the wealthy and his raiding of social security. All they care about is keeping that gay-loving, baby killing, gun seizing, God hating liberal from Massachusetts out of the White House.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

20. Damn. That was good. You forgot tax-loving.

So make that: Gay-loving, baby killing, gun seizing, God hating, tax-loving, big government liberal from Massachusetts.

[saracat]

22. And those awful lot of people are very dangerous for us right now.

We ought not to discount them!

[On the Road]

23. Here's Why the Polls are Great News:

The Big Five-Oh
An incumbent who can’t break 50 percent is in trouble, even if he’s ahead. Not that we’re referring to anyone in particular.
By Guy Molyneux

---snip

Almost all poll reporting focuses on the “spread,” that is, the difference in the percentage supporting Bush and John Kerry. If we take an average of the most recent ABC/Washington Post, CBS/New York Times, and NBC/Wall Street Journal surveys, it shows Bush with 49 percent and Kerry with 44 percent among registered voters. Such survey results are invariably reduced to the shorthand “Bush up 5,” which sounds like a comfortable lead.

However, in incumbent elections, the incumbent’s percentage of the vote is a far better indicator of the state of the race than the spread. In fact, the percentage of the vote an incumbent president receives in surveys is an extraordinarily accurate predictor of the percentage he will receive on election day -- even though the survey results also include a pool of undecided voters. Hence the 50-percent rule: An incumbent who fails to poll above 50 percent is in grave jeopardy of losing his job.

---snip

There have been four incumbent presidential elections in the past quarter-century. If we take an average of the final surveys conducted by the three major networks and their partners, we find that in three of these the incumbent fell short of or merely matched his final poll number, while exceeding it only once, and then by just a single point (Ronald Reagan). On average, the incumbent comes in half a point below his final poll result.

The numbers for challengers look quite different. In every case, the challenger(s) -- I include Ross Perot in 1992 and 1996 -- exceed their final poll result by at least 2 points, and the average gain is 4 points. In 1980, Ronald Reagan received 51 percent, fully 6 percentage points above his final poll results.

http://www.prospect.org/web/page.ww?section=root&name=ViewWeb&articleId=8694

=============================

Regardless of the point spread, a 49-44% Bush lead indicates a strong possibility of Bush losing. Even if the polls are accurate and stay this way until election day.

[progressivebydesign]

24. ELectoral-vote.com is nothing more than a handpicked clearinghouse..

Regardless of the fact that people say the guy who started it was liberal, he's non-scientifically choosing polls to bolster his electoral predictions. It's a non-issue. Have you looked closely at some of the states he's predicting solid for Bush, weak for Kerry?

We have discussed, ad nauseum, the slanted nature of the polling. The republicans, for some wierd reason, are given a much bigger chunk of the poll, and the independents, who are NOT 1/3 of the voters (and are usually rightwing) are given 1/3 of the poll in many cases.

All I know is that regardless of polls, we are working our asses off for Kerry. Do we have to go through this poll bullshit three times a day??

[m_welby]

27. not jubilent...just not depressed

I have a brother who is going down to help out in PA the week of the election and has been very depressed about kerry's chances, the debate changed that.

before the debate he felt like he was signing on with a lost cause even though he feels very strongly that this is the most important election in his lifetime.

now he's more upbeat and hopeful, definitely the attitude everyone should have (especially working for the campaign).

Of course as posted here often enough, it isn't over till its over and no one can take a single vote for granted. we all have to work like its life or death right up until election day, because for some of us (like our fine troops and my draft age children) it is.

[AngryLizard]

28. Where was Gore at this time in the polls? Does anyone know?

Because I was under the impression that he was behind, by possibly the same margin. And, uh. He won the popular vote.
Yes, I know, "popular vote." To quote our president, "I KNOW that!" But I'm just saying.

Does anyone have poll figures? I'm curious. Or even if anyone remembers where Gore was right before the election.