You want an October Surprise? I gotcher October Surprise right here!

[jmowreader]

On October 31, the Deputy Director for Intelligence and the Deputy Director for Operations at the CIA will hold a joint press conference. These guys never talk to the press, so the audience will be huge.

At this briefing, they will announce the results of an internal investigation: "We have determined, through long and diligent investigative work, the identities of the two Administration officials who illegally released the identity of our covert officer Valerie Plame.

"It is our determination that President George W. Bush and Vice President Richard Cheney were the two senior Administration officials who contacted reporters to include Robert Novak.

"We used classified methods in this investigation; these methods will not be revealed in a press conference.

"We now open the floor for questions." (The questions will mostly be answered by "I'm sorry, the answer to that question is classified.")

Headline on every paper in America on November 1: "CIA: BUSH BLEW PLAME"

New York Times headline on November 3: "KERRY WINS 50 STATES"

Okay, the "classified methods" will include rectal analysis--the act of pulling the intel out of your ass. But who isn't going to believe the two Deputy Directors of the CIA? Most people think the CIA is right all the time. That's what we've been brought up to think.

The timing of this is very simple: Bush cannot spin his way out of an accusation of treason in 24 hours. A tornado couldn't spin its way out of an accusation of treason in 24 hours.

Paybacks are hell, George.

[napi21]

1. I wish you were right, but I doubt it.

Shrub & Cheney are way too clever than that! Never leave fingerprints, remember? Naw, the best we can hope for is the lower ranking perp to get caught and tell who asked them to do it.

[jmowreader]

4. The CIA doesn't need proof...

In this scenario, it wouldn't matter whether Bush and Cheney did it. The CIA drops this shit on the world two days before the election and one of three things happens:

a) Bush and Cheney didn't do it and Novak, who is the only person who can confirm the identity of his source, falls on his sword for the Chimp and reveals who really did it. This has three side effects, and all are good. The first is that it reveals the fact that Bush and Cheney tried to cover this up and failed. The second is it puts Novak out of the journalism business. He is reduced to being an older, very-slightly-less-repulsive, non-drag-wearing version of Ann Coulter. It also sends Bush and Cheney to prison for many felonies.

b) Bush and Cheney didn't do it and Novak, who remains the only person..., decides that he's done enough for the Bush crime cartel and flies to Europe for a few relaxing weeks. Novak remains in the journalism business, Bush and Cheney go straight to jail, all is well with the world.

c) Bush and Cheney (or some combination of either Bush or Cheney plus either Perle, Wolfowitz or Scooter Libby) really did do it, they go to jail, Kerry becomes the first president to be inaugurated the day after the election. All is well.

[napi21]

5. But Novak isn't the only person who can confirm it.

There were calls to several news sources. Novak was the only one who ran with it. Why do you think Judith Mitchell (I think that's her name) is willing to go to prison rather than reveal her source.

Naw, I don't the CIA would make any announcement they couldn't prove.

[rndmprsn]

2. Ah to dream...

[earthside]

3. I'll go along with this ...

... the 'October Surprise' will probably be something the Kerry campaign springs - not the Bushistas.

It is conceivable that indictments in the Plame case could be handed down this month. That could be the 'October Surprise' ... and that may be the very end of Bush - depending on who is named and who is an 'unindicted co-conspirator.