NY-23: Owens Leads By 5

[ccharles000]

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/19-21, likely voters):

Bill Owens (D): 35
Dede Scozzafava (R): 30
Doug Hoffman (C): 23
Undecided: 12
(MoE: ±4%)

One more big news item out of NY-23 to add to the pile: Democrat Bill Owens is still holding down a decent-sized lead. Republican Dede Scozzafava is still in second place despite the general implosion of her campaign this week -- note, though, that the sample was taken Monday through Wednesday, when things were only sort of going wrong and the dam hadn't totally broken (with the Palin endorsement, the photo op snafu, the parking lot screaming, and... well, you know the rest of the story). In fact, these numbers match up very closely with the most recent Siena poll of the race from one week earlier, where Owens led at 33, with Scozzafava at 29 and Conservative Doug Hoffman at 23.

The poll also asks an interesting question of Hoffman voters: who's your second choice? It looks like the Hoffman camp has done a sufficient job of poisoning Scozzafava's well, for Scozzafava gets almost no second-choice votes: the answers were 62% undecided, 26% won't vote, 9% Scozzafava, and 3% Owens. All three of the candidates have positive favorables, although Scozzafava has the narrowest spread (38/35, versus Owens' 33/24 and Hoffman's 27/19).

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/5783/ny23-owens-leads-by-5

[hedgehog]

1. Crossing my fingers and taping up my windows in case all

the Republican heads around here explode November 3.

[bluestateguy]

2. Thank you Doug "Nader" Hoffman

nt