Tiannamen II: Get ready for Iranian Revolution Redux if Ahmadinejad steals election

[SuperTrouper]

In Al Jazeera, one of their regular guests (Marwan Bishara) made a point that the Ayatollahs would have to harden their stance if Mousavi wins (not good for the Ayatollahs because it would cause a massive rebellion by the young Iranians which comprise about 50% of the people). This may force the Mullahs to forceably put a rebellion down like in Tiannaman's Square in 1989. However, if the Iranian people perceive an Ahmadinejad victory as stolen, there would also be rebellion since clearly Mousavi's candidacy has caused such a massive turnout of the vote (more than 70%) and the will of the people would have been supressed. So, the next 24 hours will be interesting in Iran...it looks like Ahmadinejad learned a lesson from Bush: steal the election at any cost to remain in power.

[Renew Deal]

1. Where are the numbers?

Who's got them? I keep hearing about it being 20% counted.

[Chulanowa]

2. I get the feeling that some people are really hoping for it

Of course, not just our resident lovers of war and chaos, but also there in the middle east... LOTS od Sunni regimes are probably just drooling over themselves at the idea of Iran having a civil war.

[Thrill]

3. We should have known if Bush could steal one here. Ahmadinejad was

going to also

[Drunken Irishman]

6. Ahmadinejad is still extremely popular in parts of Iran.

The backbone of the opposition was the youth vote, however, Ahmadinejad was thought to coast to victory for most of the election.

A victory here shouldn't be a surprise.

However, the margin indicates something is up.

It tells me they didn't want a runoff.

[mmonk]

4. I'm not so sure. They had reformist President Mohammad Khatami

in power before I'm a dinner jacket. Power can still swing smoothly without unrest but we will see. If you want to understand the power structure in Iran, here is a good link. I think it will all center around the general feelings of the Supreme Leader and the Guardian Council.

the link: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8051750.stm

[DrToast]

5. The political climate wasn't the same

The religious leaders today are very worried about western influences.

Having a leader that is expected to deliver on more social freedoms and closer ties to the west has to give them some heartburn.

I'm worried they're going to steal this election and it could get ugly if they do.

[SuperTrouper]

8. Yes, situation is potentially explosive, especially in Tehran. What a disaster for the Mullahs

if a civil war breaks out over a stolen election.

[Captain Hilts]

7. Yes. This is not cool. nt

[Fearless]

9. I don't think so.

Not yet. It doesn't seem right just yet. Give it time though. These things need to germinate.

[4lbs]

10. The thing that gets me is that the early returns stated that the incumbent was 40 points ahead

of the challenger (69 to 28). This went against the fact that hundreds of thousands, maybe a million came out publicly in support for the main challenger just a few days ago.

It might have been more believable if the state-run media had said that early returns had the incumbent ahead by a few points. But no, 40 points ahead!

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

11. Does that mean the DLC and the Republicans will team-up to push for trade to 'coddle" the rulers?

while screwing the people of that country for 20+years, to the point that, when the anniversary of the event come around, it will be virtually ignored?.

I mean, it's not like it happened before or anything.

[LooseWilly]

12. My cousin in Tehran doesn't seem to think that there's any incipient revolution in the offing.

Disappointment, yes. They've been told that Ahmadi nejad (as she spells it) has won. Whether agitators will go to ground or try to whip discontent up is something I can't guess about (and my cousin isn't hugely politically active... so no sign that she knows)... but previous posts have included statements by the Revolutionary Guard that they're preparing to be sure that no revolutionary sentiment tries to take advantage of the elections... so it's a fair bet that organizers are marked and that if they don't go to ground immediately, they won't be around long enough to agitate anything.

My guess from my cousin's tone is that they just got GWB'd... and they'll live with it for now... and discontent will continue to smolder... and that if the US continues to not rattle sabers then the discontent will smolder all the hotter... so let's hope Obama carries through on his Middle East policy speeches better than his DADT/DOMA campaign speeches... or at least I hope so... though I guess I can always meet my cousin in Istanbul.

As for the perceptions of stolen elections... young Iranians have about as much "faith" in the electoral process as young Mexicans... which is not much... (hell, large portions of young Americans too... as long as we're on the cynicism topic).

[SpiralHawk]

13. "Smirk" - xCommander AWOL (R)

"It's a good thing our boy-o Ollie North (R) gave US Hawk Missiles to Iran so they could defend themselves against democracy."

- xCommander AWOL (R)

[LeftishBrit]

14. Not good. Not good at all.

It was pretty clear that he'd make sure he stayed in power.