Sometimes a Tie Isn't Really a Tie - Undecided voters will go for Kerry

[TruthIsAll]

http://www.cookpolitical.com/column/2004/072504.php

Sometimes a Tie Isn't Really a Tie
By Charlie Cook
© National Journal
July 25, 2004

President Bush and Sen. John Kerry each face challenges in their upcoming conventions, but the challenges are not of equal difficulty. For Kerry, the challenge is to clear the threshold of acceptability with voters. For Bush, the challenge is to change minds.

For the better part of four months, this race has been effectively tied, with the two candidates running at about 45 percent or 46 percent, give or take 3 percentage points, depending upon the poll, the week, and the events leading into the survey. Since Kerry's choice of Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina to be his running mate, the Democratic ticket has ticked up about 2 to 4 points, and is ever-so-slightly ahead in most polls. The mistake that many make is to assume that a tie in the polls means that the two candidates have equal chances of winning. Not so.

An axiom in politics is that undecided voters rarely end up casting their ballots for well-known, well-defined incumbents. If a well-known and established incumbent picks up one-quarter to one-third of the undecided vote, he is lucky indeed. Just a cursory look at the current pool of undecided voters suggests that Bush is unlikely to get even one-quarter of the undecided vote.

more...

For an analysis of how various allocations of undecided votes will affect Kerry's expected Electoral Vote and probability of winning, look here:

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[Massacure]

1. The challanger usually get 2/3 of the undecideds.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

2. new voters not even on the radar.

and I mean the ones who actually get to the polls.

[gristy]

3. New voters is where it's at

This race is so prominent I expect a phenomenal turnout. And those new voters will undoubtedly break for Kerry. I'll bet you dollars to donuts the pollsters are way underestimating this effect. Bottom line is Landslide for Kerry.

Keep it under your hat, though...

[blondeatlast]

7. New voters wouldn't bother to register unless there was a benefit

for them. I'd say that's VERY bad news for an incumbent...

[Nicholas_J]

4. Actually

The percentage of undecideds who go for the challenger during the last three weeks prior to the election runs anywhere from 75 to 85 percent. With the race being as close as it has been , this should translate into a lead for Kerry at the very end of the campaign.

According to Republican pundits, Bush needed to get and maintain at least a 4 point lead over Kerry after the convention up until election day, but already polls this week are indicating that the bounce that Bush got just after the convention is beginnning to evaporate. The media is doing its job. Just like they went after Kerry when he started leading after his convention, and gave the Swift Boat Veterans advertisements far more attention than they would have gotten if they had been left to run in the three states that they were run in, they are going after Bush. "New Records" found regarding Bush's military service, and another organization "Texans for Truth" going blow for blow with the Swift Boat Ads.

The democrats are putting Bush's military record back on the table, and the adverts I have seen from Texans for Truth are every it as scathing as the Swift Boat Ads. Given the recent Pentagon records being released, this time I don not think Bush is going to be able to slip the consequences of his action in the Texas Air National Guard.

Some of the new Kerry ads are also doing a rather good job attacking the myth that a second Bush term will keep us safer from terrorism than a Kerry administration. These ads look like the start of an attack on Bush's one supposed strong point. THe War on Terror. THese ads are starting to point out to the undecided voters that Bush is fighting terrorism where it ain't, and that if there is another attack on the U.S. it will be because Bush decided to waste 200 billion and more in Iraq, that would have kept us safer if it had been spent hunting down Osama and Al Qaeda.

[cthrumatrix]

6. great to here.... this is why shrubya and team are going nuts !

[Longhorn]

5. This is what you've been telling us all along, TIA.

Makes sense to me! :yourock: Thanks for sharing the article.

[Orangepeel]

8. A don't count your chickens caution via Joe Trippi...

I hope you are right, TruthIsAll, but just as a caution against overconfidence...

Joe Trippi was on some show, Hardball, I think, and he said that the challenger historically picks up undecides against an incumbant EXCEPT in presidential elections, which doesn't typically follow that trend. I remember this because it went against what I thought was the truth. He didn't give concrete examples and I don't have historical data, so I don't know. :shrug:

on edit: I realize that just because Joe Trippi said it doesn't mean much -- he certainly could have been talking out of his ass or trying to explain away the Iowa primary in a round about way, but he said this and it struck me as odd so I thought I'd share.