McCain's hopes hinge on swing state shocker.

[azmouse]

http://www.azcentral.com/news/election/election08/articles/2008/11/02/20081102swingstates1102.html


For a nation recently conditioned to nail-biting elections that stretch from Tuesday into Wednesday and perhaps into December, this year offers something different.

Two days before the election, John McCain is behind in every national poll and in polls in nearly every swing state. Barring an unforeseen incident or a well-hidden trove of voters in key states across the country, the Republican Arizona senator appears headed for defeat.

While Florida and Ohio offered a dramatic coda to the past two elections, Pennsylvania and Virginia could end the competitive stage of the race quickly this year.
Pennsylvania hasn't gone to a Republican since 1988, and Virginia hasn't gone to a Democrat since 1964. If Democratic Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois carries both, as most polling now suggests he will, McCain has no plausible path to the 270 electoral votes needed to win the race. That is because the most conservative estimate for Obama suggests he has secured at least 238 electoral votes.

McCain has effectively bet his campaign on winning Pennsylvania. But despite his many visits there in recent weeks, he remains behind by 12 percentage points in recent polls.

"I've not seen anybody in the modern history of Pennsylvania coming back from 12 down," said G. Terry Madonna, director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin and Marshall College, whose polling has tracked Pennsylvania politics since 1992. "But it's his last stand. I understand why he's here."

At the same time, McCain neglected Virginia, said Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.

"They've got a particular death wish in Virginia. It's amazing," Sabato said. "They really didn't think it was going to be competitive."

For Obama, the electoral path is relatively simple: Win the usual Democratic states and peel off at least one previously Republican state like Ohio.

By contrast, McCain has to preserve nearly every swing state President Bush carried four years ago, even as many of them now lean to Obama.

Instead of closing the gap in the campaign's climactic final weeks, McCain has fallen further behind, according to an Arizona Republic analysis of registration trends, voting histories and polling data compiled by the nonpartisan Real Clear Politics.

"Obama's going to get way more than 300 electoral votes," Sabato said. "The 'R' (for Republican) matters. It's a scarlet letter, and McCain is wearing it."

[Mz Pip]

1. I hope so

I watched some of McCain's speeches this morning. He almost seemed manic, like he was filled with that hyper intensity that comes when you know the end is near.

I'll be hanging on by my fingernails for the next 2 days. I'll do some phone banking today.

[azmouse]

2. McCain knows it's over.

I couldn't be happier.

Thank you for continuing to work for our candidate. It'll be a landslide!

[Mz Pip]

3. Maybe I'll ask to

make some calls to AZ! :hi:

[windbreeze]

4. for myself...

I am NOT counting electoral votes before they are cast....there have been times when I have seen those votes go the exact opposite of what I thought they would/should...when it's over, and Obama has won...is the time to celebrate...right now, is just too damned early, it IS ok to be positive...it is NOT ok to say we've won, when we haven't...and I, am not so sure we are aware of ALL their tricks just yet(McCain stating months ago, that he'd be losing until 48 hours before the election, still bothers me, because of things that happened in the past two pres. elections...first with Florida, then with Ohio)..I am just about positive, however, that this country will NOT survive with McCain in the WH, and that the American people have finally woken up to that fact...xxxxx=fingers crossed...wb