If Clark get over 25% in New Hampshire does that knock Dean out?

[billbuckhead]

I think thats the tipping point for Clark running away with this thing. The American street is talking about his tax cuts and are impressed with his recent TV appearences.

[Padraig18]

1. LOL!

We'll see, doc, just what the voter's 'pulse' is, won't we?

[jmaier]

2. Dean is in this all the way

no matter what the margins are in IA and NH or on Feb 3rd for that matter. This campaign plays to win and they aren't going to fold under some early adversity. That, btw, is a good thing. Even though I prefer Clark.




Wes Clark. He will make an extraordinary American President.

[xultar]

4. True, Dean will not give up! No, he won't be knocked out. n/t

[dkamin]

3. ?

How does that "knock Dean out"? Finishing 2nd in one state and pulling out of the other knocks out the front-runner?

I think Clark has made the race interesting, and that if he pulls over 25% in New Hampshire and wins in South Carolina, it becomes a real close race. I think it's a little early to start talking about knockouts though.

[billbuckhead]

8. If Clark does really well in New England, in Dean's backyard then even

the true believers must acknowledge it gets hard for Dean. The last few days one can feel the obvious momentum shift from Dean to Clark. If Clark beats expectations in New Hampshire in a big way, it will be a sign to the hungry masses that he is the one.

[Padraig18]

10. The 'momentum shift' is from Kerry to Clark, Bill.

That's where the shift is happening: Kerry is losing point for point what Clark is gaining. Everyone else's numbers are remaining stable...

[LuminousX]

11. It has always been hard for Dean

nothing has changed.

[WI_DEM]

5. no

If Dean wins by better than ten-points it is a strong win. I think Dukakis won in '88 with 35% of the vote with Gephardt getting 22% (he got a big bounce after Iowa that year going from 3% in NH polls to 22% second place, but he didn't get any kind of windfall).

p.s.
of course it depends on the media which has had it in for Dean based on the constant negative stories, so it depends on how they play it.

[Kolesar]

6. Tell me what you have learned from "the American street"

Have you been out polling and pestering people as they leave the supermarket to hear what they are thinking? (That sounds like fun to me)

Tell me more of what people are saying, please.

[billbuckhead]

14. I'm in the position that I meet a lot of people and we have a TV on

Whenever Clark is on, customers say good things about him. This middle class tax cut and his "Meet the Press" appearence have got good notice. He has a high "Q" factor, people like seeing him on TV. CNN obviously thought that. He projects exteme competence along with likability.

[Kolesar]

20. Unsolicited comments from strangers--wow

thank you for your answer

[billbuckhead]

23. Not everybody is a stranger

My neighbor makes monkeyfaces when Dean is on TV. An artist freind starts ribetting like a frog when Dean is on. They both like Kerry. And it was a co-worker that said Clark projected extereme competence and likability. I think middle America sees Dean as the firts "punk" candidate. The anger IS the message. It doesn't wear well or project competance. I think a lot Democrats want to switch to something more cerebral.

[Kolesar]

27. Then turn the TV off!

(just kidding) If you care to know my impression of the candidates is that a lot of the major contenders sound about as compelling as a hedgetrimmer running over in the neighbor's yard on a warm summer evening. For example, Gephardt's "George Bush is a miserable failure" line and John Kerry extolling that "I am the one who can lead us on national security" sound like a pair of high school football players talking themselves up so that coach will put put them in on the next game. I love Democrats, but these guys just aren't doing it. When they start talking and going on, they at once lose me in the technical details and bore me into channel surfing.

[w4rma]

7. Low expectations for Clark? (n/t)

[Cheswick2.0]

9. no

[poskonig]

12. It depends if Dean loses.

If Dean loses either Iowa or NH, his campaign would be in immediate trouble. If Dean subsequently didn't win many states on February 3rd, I would consider his campaign dead.

[maxr4clark]

16. Hmm

I don't see why Dean losing in Iowa would be that big a deal. There are after all at least six candidates caucusing there.

[BootinUp]

35. I don't see Dean losing NH...very long odds on that

The ARG poll a few days ago, showed how firm supporters were on there current choices, Dean had high numbers like high 80's if I recall. So I don't see him losing more than 3-5 pts assuming Clark does continue climbing. So worst case Dean goes down to 32. Clark's upside potential is probably 25 max, more like 22 maybe.

[maxr4clark]

13. No, but

I stand by an answer to the earlier thread. Anyone who beats even one of the three New England candidates in New England can call it a victory; anyone who beats two of the three can call it a major victory.

Just like anyone who beats Edwards in SC can call it a victory. Sharpton looks like he's doing well there, but even if Sharpton beats Edwards in SC, Edwards won't be knocked out. And I don't see Sharpton dropping out before the convention any more than Huffington to drop out before the California recall--oh wait, she did :)

Maybe there's hope yet that the field will narrow before the convention, but not before March at the earliest.

[silver]

15. It will be Dean and somebody

That somebody will hopefully be John Kerry.

I see him finishing second in Iowa and doing much better than expected in New Hampshire. From then on out, it will be Kerry vs. Dean.

[maxr4clark]

18. I've been impressed with the change

in Kerry's campaign in the past week or two. Keep it up! I want to see Kerry as VP, so I want his campaign to do well.

[Padraig18]

19. My sourcaes on the ground in IA say that the 'Kerry surge" is a myth.

They said that his campaign is tanking there, if anything.

[silver]

26. Your sources are misinformed

I was in Iowa last week - calling tons of undecided voters and many are deciding between JK and HD or JK and DG. He's got support from many key local officials - those who communities are actually familiar with.

Also, Kerry's foreign affairs experience and tax policy clearly differentiate him from both HD and DG.

[Padraig18]

28. I guess we'll se who's right in 13 days, won't we?

:)

[Racenut20]

17. He will call Terry and whine.....hehehe

[sallyseven]

21. Don't count your chickens

before they hatch and it ain't over til its over. All that good stuff. Who will be standing in June??? That that is the question. At least it is exciting.

[sallyseven]

22. Don't count your chickens

before they hatch and it ain't over til its over. All that good stuff. Who will be standing in June??? That that is the question. At least it is exciting.

[Adjoran]

24. Clark won't get 25% in NH

and Dean wouldn't be "knocked out" if he did.

The danger for Dean is the big lead he's built in NH. If he wins by a significantly smaller margin than forecast by the polls, that becomes the story. It's the old expectations game, enjoy your lovely parting gifts and thanks for playing.

New Hampshire voters love to surprise the media, and they have gotten good at it over the years. The polls rarely predict them accurately.

Dean can lose Iowa without being hurt, although a win would knock Gephardt out of it due to money shortages. The seven primaries on Feb 3 is a different matter. Nobody who doesn't win at least one of them, or finish second in four or more at least, won't be able to continue as a viable candidate.

[Skwmom]

25. No.

Dean has to much money to be knocked out.

[TexasSissy]

29. Knock the other guy out of what...the nomination? the race?

Absolutely not. Looks like Clark, Dean, and Kerry are in it for the long haul. I think Gephardt's out if he doesn't win IA. I'm not sure about Lieberman.

[Padraig18]

31. Kerry won't make it past SC, if that long.

Stick a fork in him--he's done.

[PAMod]

30. It knocks Kerry & Lieberman out.

Dean has the dough to run out the string.

If Dean finishes 1 or 2 in Iowa and wins New Hampshire, I can't imagine him being denied the nomination, but as I've stated here before, 2004 can't be compared with any previous election cycle, so you never know...

That said, hopefully Dean would drop out and fall in behind Clark if Clark starts beating him primary after primary.

I would say the same thing for all the other candidates too.

[Rowdyboy]

32. I think Clark will finish 2nd with about 25% in NH

Of course it won't knock Dean out. But it will make the race interesting. I think that if Clark gets a huge rush of publicity by 2nd in NH, He'll be unstoppable. But that is the analysis of a supporter... :shrug:

[Padraig18]

33. I see 20-21%, and 2nd-place.

But it will make it interesting. I frankly think he will beat Kerry and, coupled with Kerry's 3rd- or 4th-place finish in IA, effectively knock him out of the race.

[jmaier]

40. I like your assessment.

I'd be thrilled to see Clark break 20% in NH. That would be pretty incredible from my little perspective.



Wes Clark. He will make an extraordinary American President.

[Padraig18]

41. I honestly expect it

The undecideds (some) are looking at Clark, then looking at Kerry, and going with Clark most of the time. Kerry's drop is almost one for one pegged to Clark's increase.

[RetroLounge]

34. The American street is talking about ...

Really, and what street would that be?

[HFishbine]

39. Peachtree Street

The spoiled rich asshole section of Altanta.

[billbuckhead]

44. That's bigotry against Peachtree St, I live off Cheshire Bridge anyhow

Ad hominem attacks against other posters don't work real well in this environment. One would think Dean supporters wouldn't slander Peachtree St. You might need those voters.
BTW, my congressman is John Lewis, who's yours?

[deminflorida]

36. Clark Sweeps Dean on Super Tuesday...

After that look for Dean to surrender his sword.

[Padraig18]

37. Dream on.

Ain't gonna happen.

[WI_DEM]

38. I think it is more reasonable to expect it to be

a toss up. I think the momentum Dean gets from Iowa and NH (yes, I think he will win Iowa) will be good for Dean. But I think right now Clark might win South Carolina and Oklahoma. I think Dean will win Arizona and New Mexico. Dean is also looking good in North Dakota--where he got a crowd of over 800 a few days ago and with Gep probably out of it may actually win Missouri.

[Capn Sunshine]

42. This logic reminds me of the "underpants gnomes" in South Park

Step one: collect underpants.
Step three--PROFIT!!

step one:
Finish a distant second in New Hampshire

Step three:
Sweep Super Tuesday!

Notable lack of description of step two there, gang.

[Clark4VotingRights]

43. General Juggernaut is on his way.

This is sweet...