DOWNTICKET RUNDOWN - What Are The Tight Races To Watch?

[rucky]

Senate, House, state house, dog catcher: Post 'em here, so we'll know what to watch for on Tuesday!

[myrna minx]

1. Franken/Coleman and Tinklenberg/Bachmann in Minnesota.

[kickysnana]

6. MN CD3 Madia D 44% Paulson-R (I) 45% Ind/other 9%

[myrna minx]

8. Isn't it great that Madia is doing so well?

For those who care to donate:

http://www.madiaforcongress.com/

http://www.alfranken.com/

http://www.tinklenberg08.com/index.php

http://www.noonprop8.com/

[FVZA_Colonel]

32. What is the polling data for Tinklenberg/Bachmann right now?

I know he pulled 4 ahead right after her meltdown on Hardball, but is his lead still there.

[myrna minx]

34. This is the most recent info I was able to find, but it's from their recent debate.

Her district is very conservative, but El Tinklenberg is a semi-conservative Dem, so he does have a possibility. Voters in Minnesota are fickle and believe in checks and balances, so if the people in her district feel like a Democratic landslide is coming they may vote her in as "balance", but right now it's a little too close to call. It will also depend on if the students for Obama in St. Cloud are organized as well.

The following link is about their debate, but I pulled out the detail about the 4 in 10 are "less likely" to vote for her because of her comments and that is really encouraging for this district.

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5g3Q_JECZANaOPH40gA26lTKkI4-gD94532180

snip
A recent poll showed four in 10 voters were less likely to vote for Bachmann, a first-term Republican, after the comment. Former Secretary of State Colin Powell condemned her statement when he endorsed Obama.
snip

[FVZA_Colonel]

35. Well, a 6 out of 10 ratio is good enough if it means getting Bachmann out of Congress.

And I can't say I agree with every one of Tinklenberg's positions, but he's a damn sight better then that crazy woman.

[Seen the light]

2. Prop 8 in California, the KY/GA/MS Senate races

[Selatius]

3. Norm Coleman v. Al Franken is extremely close. Musgrove (D) v. Wicker (R) also close in MS

Those are the two tightest senate races off the top of my head.

[Selatius]

12. Looking at recent polling, it's probably going to be won by Wicker, unfortunately. nt

[insanity]

4. Merkley/Smith

Could be a balance shifter.

Measures 56-65 look to be interesting.

[rucky]

9. Is that Oregon?

[movonne]

14. yes

[Are_grits_groceries]

5. House Dist. 1 in SC

Linda Ketner, an out lesbian, has a good chance to upset incumbent Brown.

This could be hugh!!!

[rucky]

21. In SC? No shit.

that would be hugh.

[FreeState]

7. CA 50 - Nick Leibham (Dem) vrs Brian Bilbray (GOP)

The county just flipped to more Dems than Republicans.

http://www.2008racetracker.com/page/CA-50?t=anon

[rucky]

15. kick

[grantcart]

26. thank you

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=4340043&mesg_id=4341208

CA 50 still has Republicans +11 but Leibham has come back 17 points in the last month and it is now tied.

Obama was down 11 points and now leads McCain by 11 points.

[AnOhioan]

10. An interesting race to watch

Incumbent Dennis Kucinich (OH-10) vs former Ohio State Rep. Jim Trakas. No polling data that I am aware of but Dennis is kicking some major butt in contributions, 2.2 Million (The 2nd highest total amongst Ohio House incumbents) vs 327 thousand.

[ddeclue]

11. Grayson (D) vs. Keller (R-inc) FL-08

Grayson needs your HELP folks!

[rainbow4321]

13. I don't know if you can go by which ones "are considered" tight

Because at least here in my part of North TX, races in which you would think are a given for the repuke incumbent, are showing surprising things numberwise...so while no one would label them "tight" going by our area's past elections, they may be tight now.
Sam Johnson is our area's Rep. and he has won the last 2 elections 80-20 and 60-30. The first was when he had NO Dem opponent, the second was with a Dem opponent. That is encouraging right there because he lost 20 points as soon there was a Dem to vote for...and there was not the surge in voters/excitement then like there is now.
Last stats we heard for our repuke red area was only like around 20% repukes have voted in the first 6 days of early voting...and 33% or so DEM, 44% Independents!!! Granted the Independents can go either way but that number turnout is HUGE for this area. I'm thinking that they are NOT excited and getting out the vote for Mcgramps. Even if you don't count the Independent folks, Johnson may be screwed..and yet no local media is covering the potential for him to be booted from office.

Anything can happen between now and Nov 4th but given our county's history of going 70-30 or 80-20 repuke in previous years prez elections, the current numbers are absolutely incredible!

[crispini]

30. VAN is telling me some sweet sweet numbers

;)

[AlCzervik]

16. California District 4, open seat replacing the horrible John Doolittle and keep your

fingers crossed for my district, California 3, Lungren is my asshat (R)ep, Bill Durston is running against him.

[maui9002]

17. Lord/Shadegg District 3 Arizona*

[ShadowLiberal]

18. (D) Murtha is in trouble after basically saying all the people in his district are racists

Unfortunately he had a Macaca moment when he said Western PA is racist, which is where his district is, that and him being antiwar is hurting him. A new poll shows him ahead by mere 2%, and this is a guy who won in 2006 by with 60% of the vote (which was a smaller then usual margin for him).

[ecstatic]

19. GA senate Chambliss vs. Martin is very close

The repug is close to being ousted!

[rucky]

20. That would be the second sweetest win of the election.

[kenny blankenship]

22. Mark Begich vs. Convicted Felon in Alaska

Mark Begich's lead over Ted Wheresmyfreehouse? Stevens had dwindled to less than a point last week. But then justice was served and the lead opened back up again. However, I would still watch that one to see what happens, even if I had not put my money down on Begich. We should pick that one up. But, this is Alaska we're talking about, with Ms. Youbetcha! for Governor (and who knows but the Secretary of State might be even worse) and there are still thousands of people up there who will admit on the telephone to complete strangers that they support Ted Stevens for Senator. So, don't automatically count on the logical or decent outcome happening there just because you may think that Alaska will look like a scandalous foetid bog of corruption and militant ignorance if Begich isn't chosen.

[Blue_In_AK]

36. They had their one and only televised debate tonight

(since Ted's been in Washington on trial). Mark did very well, I thought. Ted seemed angry and testy and kept insisting that he hadn't been convicted and that he is the victim of prosecutorial misconduct. It was pretty sad really. I wonder if he realizes how much he sounds like every other convicted felon immediately post-trial. I couldn't help but think of Richard Nixon -- "I am not a crook."

[fizzgig]

23. colorado cd 4

i can't find any polling numbers, but it looks like democrat betsy markey might unseat the horrible, nasty pile of filth that is marilyn musgrave. the rccc pulled money from musgrave a few weeks ago, which leads me to believe they think it was a lost cause....it's been 35 years since we've had a dem rep in this district. i'm keeping my fingers crossed, but i won't believe it until i see it.

and last i looked, democrat mark udall was up 12 or so points on bob schaffer for colorado's senate seat that opened up with the retirement of repuke wayne allard. :D

i don't know who makes me want to :puke: more, musgrave or schaffer.

as an aside, schaffer preceded musgrave as rep and allard preceded schaffer...that's an ooky cycle we've got going on here. i'm surprised musgrave didn't try for allard's seat, but i think she realized her doma bullshit might not fly in a statewide election.

[IDemo]

24. Idaho's 1st House district between Walt Minnick (D) and incumbent Bill Sali (R)

I heard that Chuck Todd earlier today had said it may be leaning toward Minnick. Also, "A Survey USA poll done for Roll Call came out on Tuesday with Minnick leading the Republican incumbent for 51-45." - http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/road-to-270-idaho.html

It would be great to get rid of Sali. He's an embarrassment in a long line of repub embarrassments for this state.

[SeattleGirl]

25. Gregoire (D) / Rossi (R) for Washington state gov.

Gregoire won a very contentious, VERY close race in '04. Rossi has been pissing and pouting ever since and is in full revenge mode. Gregoire is slightly higher in the polls, but I'm pretty nervous. If Rossi wins this year, it would take a bit of the glow off an Obama win. Putting Rossi into the governor's chair would be the same as if Dubya moved to Washington to run it. :scared:

[chascarrillo]

27. WA-8: Burner (D) vs Reichert (R-I). WA-GOV: Gregoire (D) vs Rossi (Chickenshit)

Reichert's been leading all year, until Burner pulled ahead by a couple points in the past couple weeks. We might pull this one out. Burner would be a great progressive voice in Congress.

Gov. Gregoire is narrowly leading Rossi, the latter being too chickenshit to run as a Republican (thanks to WA's new crap-filled election laws, he can run under the "GOP Party" (sic). The good news is that enough of the electorate doesn't know what the hell the "GOP Party" (sic) is - hell, I don't either - which when polls are done according to how people see the ballot, Gregoire's lead increases significantly. Still way too close, though,

[FVZA_Colonel]

31. "GOP Party" (in it's full form) sounds like either something from a 70's Blacksploitation film,

or an unspeakable act from "A Clockwork Orange."



I think Gregoire has pulled away just a little bit (thanks, probably, to Obama), but it's not over yet. Rossi being deposed about the BIAW could help, if it got more press.

[Awsi Dooger]

28. NV-3: Titus (D) vs. Porter

This is our best chance to get rid of scumbag Jon Porter, in a district covering Las Vegas and Henderson. Expected to be very tight.

Gregoire vs. Rossi is another one I'll be following closely.

Plus a general list of House races. You never know where a surprise will show up. I doubt I'll be paying much attention to the presidency, other than a handful of states.

[BlooInBloo]

29. Darcy Burner, congress, WA. Christine Gregoire, Gov, WA.

[BrotherBuzz]

33. California's 'very red' Fourth District open seat (Doolittle bailed) might just flip!

The Fourth almost flipped in 2006, when Rep. John Doolittle's ties to disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff left him vulnerable in a comfortably Republican district. Retired Air Force officer Charlie Brown (D) quickly started a second bid, and this time he faces State Senator Tom McClintock (R), the closest thing California has to a conservative standout. McClintock's home is 400 miles away from the Sacramento-based district, which could cause the Republican problems in November.

Charlie Brown is the real deal and running a great campaign against carpetbagger Tom McClintock, plus someone with some brains at DCCC saw the light and started buying generous air time to run scathing ads against McClintock.

Mid October poll had Charlie up by six points - I haven't seen anything current.