Early Voting Update 17,287,767 link and notes

[grantcart]

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

here are some takes on the numbers:

Colorado - Heavy voting has already exceeded 2004 totals. The split between Dem and Rep divided evenly but unlike other states it is heavily absentee 78% a category that Rep normally dominate.

Florida - heavy voting will exceed 2004 and again the absentee vote is very high with these numbers (45%)

Georgia - One of the heaviest states so far - More than double 2004 numbers - huge AA turnout at 35% which would mean that if this percent holds then Obama would only need to get 26% of the white vote to carry the state.

Lousiana - While the numbers are not high the Democratic and the AA numbers are very high and may indicate that LA will be closer than previously thought.

Nevada has the second highest percent of early voting when compared to 2004 numbers with almost 50% of the 2004 numbers in. Democrats hold a 24 point lead in Clark County which accounts for 60% of the state's vote.

North Carolina leads the country with 1.8 million voting accounting for 52% of the 2004 total vote. Democrats hold a large lead and are outperforming 2004 by 5% in local voting. AA voting at 27% almost meets total Republican votes 29%.

Ohio - numbers surprisingly light

[woolldog]

1. North Carolina is amazing.

The Obama campaign must have a phenomenal turnout operation there. So glad Ohio will probably be irrelevant this year.

[EFerrari]

6. A guest on Amy's show this morning said the youth in NC are turning out early,

and that isn't typical for that age group. :woohoo:

[struggle4progress]

19. Obama is taking the state seriously. Noibody else has for years

[RollWithIt]

2. 1,670,000 Early Voters in Florida so far, plus absentee

So doing pretty well here. :-)

[Alter Ego]

3. North Carolina could start Election Night with 52% of the precincts reporting.

And we'd know who won quickly.

[Alter Ego]

4. North Carolina could start Election Night with 52% of the precincts reporting.

And we'd know who won quickly.

[Bullet1987]

5. That's based on 2004...the number of voters will likely be higher this cycle than 4 years ago

[ladywnch]

7. from my volunteer work in CO, I know that the campaign was heavily pushing

mail in ballots (and hand deliver them), so I'm not sure that the repubs advantage is going to be that high. Also, about 18,000 mail in ballots in Denver have been 'misplace' so they are still trying to get them mail out.

[GardeningGal]

12. I personally know 3 people that are voting for Obama

that voted by mail but hand delivered their ballots.

For myself, I voted last Monday at the Denver elections office because I've had trouble with my mail being delivered to the correct address. I didn't want to take the chance that someone else would get my ballot.

[ladywnch]

16. now you know four! LOL I voted by mail and signed up for by mail

voting in the future. although after what happened in Denver, I'm a little concerned. but you can go into the County Clerks office and request on there if you've applied for mail in. I also hand delivered mine.

[abumbyanyothername]

20. Hey gardening gal

Were you on my phone bank list? I forget the name but . . .

Let's say it was Stephanie Jones. I call and a man picks up and says "This is Fred Jones." I ask "Is Stephanie there?" He says, "Who's calling." I say, "My name is Jim and I'm a volunteer with the Obama Campaign for Change." He says "Stephanie doesn't live here anymore so I guess you're out of luck. And I hope you stay out of luck!"

Uh . . . OK.

:rofl:

[GardeningGal]

22. ?

Uh, that would be a resounding NO.

[cliffordu]

8. Thanks GC-- K&R!!

[goclark]

9. Thanks grantcart -- keep kicked everyone

I wish CA had Early voting in various locations.

In LA County we either do Absentee or drive way out to Norwalk.
I completed my Absentee ballot and will walk it to the Polling Place Nov. 4 and...

place a kiss on the envelope and tenderly place it in that BOX!


:bounce:

[diane in sf]

23. I'm in SF and I went to city hall and voted, long line, but it only took 20 min.

[goclark]

25. SF should get a huge turnout for Obama I'm praying nt

[diane in sf]

27. I will guess that SF will be over 80% for Obama

[endthewar]

10. I think North Carolina and Nevada are in the bad now

Too much of a deficit for McCain to overcome.

[Blondiegrrl]

18. If Obama takes NC then I think we're looking at a landslide win. n/t

[phrigndumass]

11. Good news ... that's more than 12% of the total projected vote so far

Hoping we see even more on Saturday :D

[grantcart]

15. and actually it is much larger than that because 27 states are reporting

no early voting and even if they don't have early voting they have absentee ballots.

Oregon for example is showing 36% but the real number is probably closer to 70%.

BTW something is happening in Montana -- 30% of the 2004 vote and twice as many that early voted in 2004.

[progressoid]

13. I just hope Democrats don't assume that the early voters have it covered and stay home on the 4th.

That's why I'm on the phones this weekend.

[codjh9]

14. Yep, no way that can or should happen! People need to GOTV! n/t

[ItsTheMediaStupid]

21. I'm taking Monday and Tuesday off to help prevent this

We can't let this one get away.

[ellie]

17. It's the first

year for early voting in Ohio so maybe people don't know?

[WCGreen]

24. Almost 20% of the voters in Cuyahoga County have already voted

either trhough Absentee or early voting...

That's more than ever before.

And we still have about 100,000 absentee ballots outstanding that haven't been returned as of yet so where ever you got your information about ohio, you might want to check it out for yourself...

[Time for change]

26. Thank you grantcart

So, if I interpret this right, what you're indicating is that things are looking up in Nevada and North Carolina, but maybe not so good in Florida and Colorado (because of the preponderance of absentee voting) and Ohio. I don't really hold out much hope for Georgia or LA.

I think that the statistics in Clark County are very encouraging, with more than half of the county already voting, and Democrats outvoting Republicans by 23%. Kerry only won Clark County by 5% in 2004, and Democrats only have about a 17% advantage there this year. So Dems seem to be outperforming there, with more than half the vote already cast. It will be very difficult for McCain to win if Obama takes Nevada. That's great news, I think -- though it's hard to tell how representative the vote is compared to who will be voting on Election Day.