October 27, 2008Current poll numbers from
Pollster.comDays Remaining:
8 Candidate - Electoral VotesObama-Strong -
268Obama-Leaning -
38Obama Total -
306 McCain-Strong -
129McCain-Leaning -
13McCain Total -
142 Toss-Up -
90Current Toss-Ups (Electoral Votes) Obama Advantage/DeficitNevada (5)
3.2Montana (3)
-2.7North Dakota (3)
3.6Missouri (11)
1.6Indiana (11)
0.1North Carolina (15)
2.6Georgia (15)
-3.8Florida (27)
2.2Current Obama-Leaning (Electoral Votes) Obama AdvantageColorado (9)
6.7New Mexico (5)
6.5Ohio (20)
4.4New Hampshire (4)
6.9Current McCain-Leaning (Electoral Votes) McCain AdvantageSouth Dakota (3)
7.5Arizona (15)
7.2Significant recent changes- Obama gains pretty much everywhere.
- McCain slips in South Dakota, sending it from McCain-Strong to McCain-Leaning.
- McCain's home state incredibly slips from Strong to Leaning.
- Georgia, once McCain-Strong, slips to a Toss-Up.
Scenarios(Based on current numbers) - 270 needed to win.
McCain wins all McCain-Strong and McCain-Leaning, plus all Toss-Ups.
Obama -
306McCain -
232While this scenario is favorable to McCain at the moment, Obama still wins handily. Obama's strength is powerful indeed when you consider that just his Strong states put him only
TWO electoral votes away from victory. This means he would have to hold on to only
one of his Leaning states to be our next President, and any one of them would do - including tiny New Hampshire with its 4 electoral votes.
Battleground AnalysisThe battleground was shrinking, but now it is
shifting - into McCain's territory with his losses not only in Toss-Up states, but also his Leaning and even his Strong states. Amazingly, his Arizona home base is no longer considered Strong by Pollster's formula.
Looking at just the battlegrounds, I've taken each candidate's poll numbers in these states, weighted them with each state's electoral strength (because a 5-point lead in Florida is worth more than a 5-point lead in New Hampshire, for example), added up the results and converted them into percentages. The following is the result:
Toss-Up States OnlyObama -
47.5%McCain -
46.6%That's a hell of a lot closer than the national polls, but it is also highly misleading as an indicator of the race if for no other reason that the fact that Obama doesn't need to win
any Toss-Up states. If McCain is going to win this thing, he needs to make gains inside Obama's territory. And there, the results are as follows:
Obama Leaning States OnlyObama -
50.0%McCain -
44.7%Counterintuitively, granting all the Toss-Up states to McCain shows him with a tougher fight than leaving them up for grabs, putting him at a 5-point deficit. And as shown above, Obama can still afford to lose all but one of his Leaning states.
What about GOP voter suppression?There is frequent speculation about how much of an advantage McCain will have from GOP voter-suppression operations. If the above numbers are correct, and they hold until Election Day, the following scenarios illustrate the results.
GOP vote suppression is worth 6 points (in every Obama-Leaning State):
Obama WinsGOP vote suppression is worth 7 points (in every Obama-Leaning State):
McCain WinsSeven points is a hell of a lot to steal, even for professional thieves.
InterpretationMcCain has a tough road to hoe, even with his voter-suppression advantage. Colin Powell's endorsement has factored in, and it's difficult to think of any one endorsement that would have more of an impact than his, considering the respect he enjoys across party lines and his perception by the public as a sober nonpartisan statesman. As a consequence, it has forced wingnut pundits to attack him for it, desperately claiming it was only because of race. This further damages McCain in an incidental way as it lessens the respect these pundits enjoy.
More good news is that these polls probably do
not yet fully reflect the recent embarrassment of Sarah Palin's 150-grand clothing shoppapalooza, which should result in another blow to McCain. This story could prove to be a one-two punch against the ticket. One, it's exactly the kind of story that the media love: it's sensational and easy to understand, which is why they enjoy covering it. Two, much like the seven-houses train wreck, it pulls away the everyman bullshit facade that the Republicans typically play so effectively, and does so just when McCain has adopted Joe the Plumber as his mascot and has resurrected the "Obama is an elitist" meme.
More good news is that these polls are not yet registering Ashley Todd's Cut Yourself For McCain campaign.
And regarding the Right Reverend, I'm considering it more and more unlikely that Jeremiah Wright will resurface in the McCain campaign. What better way to telegraph desperation than recycling yet another tried and failed smear from the Democratic Primaries? By now, all the voters are expecting it. And so if they actually see it, the reaction will be more like,
Oh God, there he goes again.To help close the gap, expect a terrorism-related incident between now and the election, either in the form of an Al Qaeda propaganda video or a thwarted plot. Al Qaeda
assisted George W. Bush in this fashion in 2004, and it had results. And even with the recent revelation that Al Qaeda is once again
voting Republican this year, I would still expect such an incident to boost McCain. But considering Obama's Kung Fu skills which have been demonstrated again and again, I would also expect that the Obama campaign is ready for it.
McCain's advantages- Voter suppression.
- Al Qaeda.
Obama's advantages- Apparent awareness and response to voter suppression.
- A terror-weary public.
- A commanding lead among stabilizing polls, which continues to rise.
- Sarah Palin.
- A public and media less prone to the same, tired Republican bullshit.
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