Many DUers are very short-sighted on how GOOD a Powell endorsement would be

[scheming daemons]

Here are Rasmussen poll results about Colin Powell from about six weeks ago:

Monday, August 25, 2008

It’s a good thing for Republicans that Colin Powell is still one of them.

Powell, the popular former secretary of state and chief of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, handily beats Republican presidential candidate John McCain in a one-on-one match-up. This comes at a time when Barack Obama holds a very slight lead over McCain in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Powell, the best-known African-American in the Republican Party, beats McCain more than two-to-one, 54% to 26%, with 21% of voters undecided.

An identical number of Democrats (75%) prefer either Obama or Powell over McCain.
But while 84% of GOP voters favor McCain against Obama, just 48% favor him over Powell, who pulls 35% of GOP voters in a contest with his fellow Republican.

Unaffiliated voters give the edge to McCain over Obama 41% to 35%. But Powell beats McCain among unaffiliateds 44% to 21%.

.
.
.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/powell_far_more_likely_than_obama_to_beat_mccain


In short... it doesn't matter what Democrats, especially DUers, think about Colin Powell. He has VERY high approval ratings among Independents and moderate Republicans.

Obama already has our vote. A Powell endorsement would effectively end any pretenses the McCain camp has about coming back in this race.

Powell may be the biggest prick on the planet, he may have a special place in hell reserved for him as far as you are concerned. That doesn't matter.

What matters is that a Powell endorsement goes a long way toward helping Obama win.

Please...put aside your personal feelings about the guy and think like a pol. Winning is what matters, not purity.

And for those that say Powell will endorse McCain or already has (because he gave $2300 to McCain in August of 2007), let me debunk that a little:

A. Powell donated to McCain at a time when everyone thought the race was going to be Giuliani vs Hillary. Powell, who is a registered Republican, donated to the GOP candidate he found LEAST objectionable at the time. And Powell wanted to defeat Hillary. The fact that Powell had donated to McCain's primary campaign would make his endorsement of Obama all the more powerful.

B. If Powell was going to endorse McCain, he would've already done so... most likely at the RNC. The fact that Powell, a prominent Republican, didn't even attend the RNC speaks volumes.


Powell will make something VERY similar to the following statement on Sunday:

"John McCain is a long-time friend of mine, a very dear friend. I think he would make a fine President. But at this time in our country's history, we need a new type of leadership. So...while I think both men would do a good job, I'm giving my endorsement to Barack Obama."

It will dominate the news coverage Monday and Tuesday, and drown out ANYTHING the McCain camp has planned for those two days.
By Monday afternoon, Joe the Plumber will seem like a 6-month-old story.


You people who think such an endorsement would be bad or that we should not welcome it are NOT thinking like a campaign chairman or candidate. Lose the "purity test" and welcome news that helps our candidate.

David Brooks all but endorsed Obama in his latest column. David freaking Brooks.
Peggy Noonan all but threw Sarah Palin under the bus in her column today.
George Will all but threw John McCain under the bus last week.


No matter what you think of these people, their statements are more powerful because of the political leanings of the people making them.

Keith Olbermann endorsing Obama doesn't move ANY voters to our side that aren't already there.
Smerconish endorsing Obama does.


Get it yet?

[high density]

1. I can't imagine there are any voters out there waiting to hear what Colin Powell thinks.

The media will jizz over it, but nobody else will care.

[OKNancy]

4. yes they will. the media will be all over it

Powell is a media darling and if they say it's important, it WILL be important
(IMO)

[Salviati]

23. Yeah, but I can't imagine how there are still "undecided" voters out there as of several monthhs ago

But there sure are a bunch of them. The powell endorsement doesn't matter one whit to us, but it might to them. I for one got my ballot yesterday, and had it filled out in all of 15 minutes:

Partisan races: Easy - straight D's

Ballot Inititiaves: Check to see if Tim Eyeman is either Pro or Con, if so, vote the other side. If neither read deeper in the pamphlet.

Contested non partisan races / judges: Gah... you mean I actually have to read the voter guide, lol :)



I for one can't fathom the people who are undecided in todays political climate, but alas they're out there...

[OKNancy]

2. Pragmatism is better if you want to win.

I agree with your post!

[msallied]

3. K&R :)

I think it will sway those who still originally supported the war but sit on the fence about it now, too.

[WeDidIt]

5. It'll be GOOD for McCain because that's who Powell will endorse!

HE donated the max to McCain's primary campaign, so he has already endorsed McCain.

Now, expectations have been raised and when the endorsement goes to McCain, it'll be the talking head screed for the last days of the election.

Just watch.

[TornadoTN]

11. Agreed somewhat - but consider this: that donation was in August of 2007

At lot has happened since then - and at that time, the Democratic nominee was already determined to be Hillary Clinton.

I am not one to think its going to happen for Obama, but at the same time, I think its a 50/50 shot and some things are lining up to suggest he may indeed be leaning Obama.

[scheming daemons]

12. You are politically tone deaf.

An endorsement of McCain is NOT news. That's "Dog bites man".


An endorsement of Obama *IS* news. That's "Man bites dog".


Powell endorsing McCain is no more newsworthy than Jimmy Carter endorsing Obama.


But Powell endorsing Obama is BIG NEWS.


Going on MTP to endorse McCain would make NO SENSE at all.



....and I already debunked the deal about Powell donating to McCain. Read the OP.

[WeDidIt]

20. No, I'm not

Foir the next two days the media will be pushing "Powell expected to endorse Obama."

That raises interest and hopes.

When the opposite happens, that dashes hopes and diminishes Obama. It underscores that McCain is a "maverick" and everything else they've been pushing.

And the media will eat it up because "Powell was expected to endorse Obama but he endorsed McCain. McCain is the REAL maverick and McCain is the guy who will REALLY change things."

It's a setup.

Just watch, that's how this is going down.

[ellacott]

6. They don't get it

He held in high regard among some people. Those are the people that Obama is trying to reach.

[WeDidIt]

24. I would LOVE it if he endorsed Barack

I just do not beleive he will.

[scheming daemons]

26. Well.. I predict Sunday morning will bring you a very pleasant surprise...

[WeDidIt]

30. I hope you're right

but expect you aren't.

[TornadoTN]

7. I agree - but I think we should temper expectations until the words come out of his mouth

There are too many here - on both sides - that are putting this in the bag and marking it down as a given. Powell has a history and it just isn't one that I would look at and say that he would endorse Obama.

I urge people to be patient on this and wait it out.

[elocs]

8. A common sense post. K & R.

It does make zero difference what we think of Powell here at DU. What does make a difference is how he can help Obama to win this election. His endorsement of Obama would be a blow to McCain and the Republicans.

[NotThisTime]

31. Very pragmatic & K&R

[Stanchetalarooni]

9. Racist whites would accuse him of returning to his roots.

Leading to a bump for McCain.

[scheming daemons]

14. Racist whites are already voting for McCain....

Another politically tone-deaf poster.

[progressivebydesign]

10. I'm afraid many DUers are liberal purists that haven't the ability to think like the average voter.

The average voters is a moderate. We are counting on the Obama Republicans, the Reagan Democrats, and the Bill Clinton Republicans, and the Bush Democrats.. all of whom would find Colin Powell to be a great endorsement. He is still respected by many people, and many conservatives still like him. Not everyone views the world through the same lens as the vehement anti-war one we have here... Moderate voters and conservatives will take notice if Powell endorses Obama.

[mikelgb]

13. I'm an issues voter not a politics voter...

[scheming daemons]

16. And YOU are not what is going to win this election.....

There simply aren't enough of us.

[mikelgb]

29. so I should sit it out?

[scheming daemons]

36. Of course not... but you HAVE to realize that a "Kucinich block" is not enough to win this....

in fact... it's why a guy like Kucinich can never get enough traction.


To win, you have to appeal to a broad coalition of contingencies.


We need Independents to win. Powell brings us a lot of independents.



Coalitions win. Obama has to EXPAND the base that is voting for him. You're in the camp already.

[AndyA]

15. Colin Powell is a has been. He lied to America. He's a Bush tool.

He lost his credibility when he sat down before the UN and LIED to them.

Powell's endorsement will have minimal impact, one way or the other. People are worried about keeping their homes, jobs, paying the bills, and putting food on the table. They are not waiting to make up their minds on who to vote for based on what Powell says.

This is a distraction and diverts our attention from where it must be at this point: winning the election.

I'm going to just hide all threads that mention Powell. Powell is today's Joe the Plumber, and neither have any impact on what our goal should be at this point.

[scheming daemons]

17. He lost his credibility AMONG DEMOCRATS.

[ProSense]

18. This is crazy.

While you point to poll numbers indicating Powell's popularity, nothing you cite indicates that he will be a significant draw. What you're doing is building up a Powell endorsement of McCain as a disappointment/loss for Obama or a significant coup for McCain.

I don't think that's the case.

[H2O Man]

19. Nominated.

Those who are saying that it's not going to happen, or is "no big deal," are basing this on their own contempt for Powell. While that contempt is fully justified, it is not the issue at play here. They miss the significance of what Powell's endorsement actually means.

[iceman66]

21. I agree with you.

A Powell endorsement would be very good for Obama.

I just don't see it happening.

[wishlist]

22. It would matter to fence sitting older white guys particularly

I went to breakfast this morning with a group of highly educated Dem and Repub retirees. None of them had heard anything about possibility of Powell endorsing Obama and I did not mention it. Most of the Dems were all clearly voting Obama but several registered as Dems have voted Repub for the past several elections and are leaning McCain but could switch to Obama with a Powell endorsement. A couple of the Repubs were middle of the road, probably McCain but very reluctantly as they have little respect for him now and none for Palin. What was interesting is that they spontaneously brought up Colin Powell.

In this NC group, both Repubs and Dems alike all praised Powell and like him more than McCain and all agreed that McCain would be hard to beat if he had picked Powell for VP.

Powell in Obama's camp would not switch the diehard Repubs, but the Reagan Dems and moderate Repubs who are disappointed in McCain/Palin might be tempted to go for Obama.

[tomp]

25. i don't give a flying fuck who likes powell or how many votes he brings.

.he is a war criminal. it is obvious. and a bush enabler. i want him in jail, not anywhere near the government or having the slightest bit of power. get it yet?

you call it short-sighted, i call it patriotic and principled. frankly, i think you're the one who is short-sighted, for even suggesting that he have anything to do with obama.

however, obama may also be short-sighted for letting him in. maybe obama isn't who you think he is. of, course, i'm assuming you're for peace and justice. i could be wrong about that.

[scheming daemons]

27. Powell endorsing Obama doesn't mean that Powell will have a role in the administration

Geezus.


Obama saying "thanks for the endorsement" is not "letting him in".

[tomp]

40. we disagree.

it is expected that candidates will dissociate themselves from undesirables. in addition, just as with mccain at one point, democrats and pundits have openly considered various people from the "other side" to bring in "across the aisle". powell was definitely one of those. obama has made a point of stating he will "reach across the aisle". i don't want him to do that. period.

[ProSense]

28. Another point:

Keith Olbermann endorsing Obama doesn't move ANY voters to our side that aren't already there.
Smerconish endorsing Obama does.

I agree with the potential for a Smerconish endorsement moving voters to Obama because most of his supporters would unlikely vote for Obama anyway.

The thing that isn't clear is if the people on both sides who value Powell aren't already in Obama's camp. Those who are not may be immovable. Of course, there may be a small few who value Powell's opinion more than anyone else's and will be swayed.




edited word.

[jrockford]

32. This respect for Powell is sick and misguided

Anyone who thinks he's so great and didn't sell out - independent or otherwise - I believe would of voted for McCain anyway.

His endorsement is rubbish.

I agree with the idea of what you are saying, but anyone waiting for Powell's endorsement would of likely voted for McCain anyway. Powell isn't a great man. He isn't a moderate. He lied. He sold his dignity and all it cost was a few thousand American lives.

[scheming daemons]

38. If nothing else, it is a 48-hour news cycle stealer.... where McCain is playing defense

It's worth it just for that.

[wishlist]

33. It would help to put to rest the Obama=terrorist sympathizer garbage

I hope Powell endorses very soon, since early voting has started in so many places, especially in the Southern swing states.

[tomp]

41. powell IS a terrorist.

what do you think covering up mai lai and pimping iraq are all about?

the u.s. government is the world's biggest terrorist, BY THEIR OWN STANDARDS! (see chomsky).

[Psst_Im_Not_Here]

34. I agree.

Powell's endorsement will give republican leaning independents permission to cross the aisle and vote for Obama. They will feel as though they can cross over and vote for Obama without having to say that they were wrong for so many years. Do we have to like the fact that they don't admit their mistake?

You may not like Powell, you may despise him, but, he still carries a lot of weight with the military people as well as right leaning independents. It gives Obama credibility with them.

His endorsement in no way reflects on us but, gives us an advantage. Just because Powell endorses Obama, does not mean that Obama agrees with him nor, that we approve of what Powell has done.

Don't look a gift horse in the mouth.

Now I will return to holding my breath until the actual words come out of Powell's mouth. Not counting my chickens before they hatch...how's that for cliche's?

[wowimthere]

35. Powell... one of the architects to an invasion of a country that was the greatest foreign policy

desaster of our time.

[DeschutesRiver]

37. It would be a big deal for us. If someone is just thinking about themselves

and how they feel personally about Colin Powell and his former positions, they should look to what counts. Which isn't that.

It is how such an endorsement by Powell might help influence this election in Obama's favor. That is all that counts at this moment in history.

I have seen it everywhere, whether I like the underlying rationale or not - there are white repubs who think the world of Colin Powell. He endorses Obama, and Obama will get their vote if they are soft on McCain (which a bunch of them are at this point).

I want the votes for Obama more than I give a shit about my own personal views of some of Colin Powell's past moves. Overall, I like Powell, but understand others' reservations totally. And still don't care, simply want our goal of electing a smart man to be realized.

This is way bigger than my personal opinion re Colin Powell.

[tpi10d]

39. I strongly agree

I've voted for McGovern, Mondale, Dukakis and would vote for Kucinich if he were the nominee. I'm not the voter Obama is looking to swing right now. I'm here all the way, and so are most of us.

Powell would be a great endorsement for Obama. He's just the kind of voice independent voters (who usually decide elections) are looking to hear. It would capture the news cycle for a few days and help cement Obama's lead.