What's your Gut Feeling: How Close is this Race? Which Poll to Trust?

[kennetha]

The currently extant Polls portray vastly different races. On the "low" end, it could be as close nationally as 3 points. Or Obama could have as much as a 14 point lead. Obviously, somebody is going to have egg on their faces come election day. But what's your gut feeling? Who has it right? The polls that make it look like a 3-5 point race or the ones that put Obama's lead in double digits? I honestly don't know. Where I am everybody is voting for Obama and expecting an Obama landslide. That's kind of what I expect too. But I'm struck by how much variance there is in these polls. At least they all have Obama ahead. But a 3 point race has a completely different closing dynamic than a 14 point race.

[Alter Ego]

1. TRUST NO ONE.

*X-Files theme*

I don't trust any polling data, except perhaps for Nate over at 538's analysis--and he's either going to be a hero or a goat on November 4.

[Ryano42]

2. Said it before...

"ALWAYS PLAY LIKE IT'S TIED!"

:kick:

[leftynyc]

3. Obama by 3% in the popular vote

May get over 300 electoral votes.

Edited to add: I don't trust any of the polls per se, but the averaging of all the polls looks good for Sen Obama.

[alcibiades_mystery]

4. It's about 8%

Obama hovering around 50%, and McCain in the 42-43% range.

[sandyj999]

5. Trust No Poll. n/t

[Stagecoach]

6. The polls are actually quite consistent

Most of the polls are showing a 6 to 7 point lead right now, with a couple stretching higher than that, and lower than that. So, I have to think the 6 to 7 point lead might be correct.

But keep in mind, these pollsters will want to maintain some credibility so that they're useful again 4 years from now; the pollsters don't want to be wrong by too much. So, as we get closer and closer to the election, the more I believe what the poll numbers are showing.

[JenniferJuniper]

7. Dick Morris has me worried

He has Obama winning in a smashing landslide.

And he is always wrong.

[Stagecoach]

9. Morris is playing the reverse psychology game

He's trying to motivate the McCain electorate, and trying to instill complacency among the Obama electorate. That would work in most elections....but with the economic situation we're in right now, I don't see it working this time around. Way too important for a person not to vote.

[yellowcanine]

8. 7 to 10 nationally. Up in most battle ground states. On track for 350 + EVs.

[windbreeze]

10. Don't trust ANY poll...

your gut instinct may be closer...but...the best thing to do, is not take a damned thing for granted...cover all your bases, and never, never, underestimate your opponent, or what he might pull...wb