Compare: electoralvote.com vs RCP electoral map:

[NYC_SKP]

Electoralvote.com: Obama 357, McCain 181 (no toss ups)





Mind you, I am still concerned about shenanigans, purges, voting machines, and surprise attacks, so am preparing to dump the rest of my money into the campaign and continue to phonebank and GOTV.

Thank you to two prior posts:

ronnykmarshall: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7447044

and

charlie and algernon: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7446924

[Richardo]

1. I'm suspicious of the recent positive, sizable swings in the battleground states

That doesn't smell right to me.

[NYC_SKP]

2. Agreed, unless it's sustained over several days, it's not reliable.

If these hold or rise over the next ten days, I'll start to accept them, but there are still all the things that can go awry and we can't stop working until it's over!

:patriot:

[deadmessengers]

3. In particular, WV

There's no way in hell WV is more blue than Florida right now. While I think Obama has a small edge in Florida right now, I think WV is in the same boat as NC - a true, honest-to-goodness tossup.

[jberryhill]

6. It's that one +8 ARG poll there...

WV needs more polling.

That said, there United Mine Workers union is doing yeoman work in WV for Obama.

[ronnykmarshall]

5. It's a CRAP!!

[Fire_brand]

4. EV uses the latest poll numbers, RCP uses the averages

that's why EV's graph for WV looks like this:







and RCP still has McCain in the lead in WV:

Poll Date Sample McCain (R) Obama (D) Spread
RCP Average 09/05 - 10/08 -- 46.5 44.3 McCain +2.2
ARG 10/04 - 10/08 600 LV 42 50 Obama +8
Rasmussen 09/24 - 09/24 500 LV 50 42 McCain +8
CNN/Time 09/21 - 09/23 694 LV 50 46 McCain +4
MBE 09/05 - 09/08 432 RV 44 39 McCain +5