The Daily Fix: A Compilation of Today's Polls and Where Things Stand

[MadBadger]

I'm a little late tonight because of the debate, but I'm back with a ton of polls to report on, most of them good for Obama, and the one or two that arent, I can question their validity with success!

National Polls

Kos/R2K: Obama 52(unchanged), McCain 41(+1)
Rasmussen: Obama 52(unchanged), McCain 44(unchanged)
Gallup: Obama 51(+1), McCain 42(unchanged)
Hotline*: Obama 46(-1), McCain 44(+3)
GWU: Obama 50(unchanged), 43(unchanged)

*The Hotline poll today changed its party ID breakdown for some reason. Now, the dems only have a 2 point advantage, which is pretty bogus. The Dems should have around a 5-10 point lead over the Repukes.

RCP Average: Obama 49.6(-.2), McCain 43.6(+.5)

Pollster Average: Obama 49.8, McCain 43.6

State Polls

California
SUSA: Obama 55(+2), McCain 39(-4)

Pennsylvania
Rasmussen: Obama 54(+4), McCain 40(-2)
Muhlenberg: Obama 48(-1), McCain 38(unchanged)
SUSA: Obama 55(+5), McCain 40(-4)
Pennsylvania is quickly moving from a lean Obama state to a solid one....just dont tell Chuck Todd. He doesnt want to hear it.
RCP Average: Obama 51.2, McCain 39.2

Nevada
Ins. Advantage: Obama 49(+1), McCain 47
Reno Gazette Journal: Obama 50(+6), McCain 43(unchanged)
Obama appears to be opening up a small lead here, though some of the polls are still within the MOE
RCP Average: Obama 49.6, McCain 46.6

Colorado
Ins. Advantage: Obama 51(unchanged), McCain 45(+4)
Race gets closer, so could be just statistical noise
RCP Average: Obama 49.3, McCain 45.3

Alaska
Rasmussen: McCain 55(-9), Obama 40(+7)

North Carolina
CNN/Time: Obama 49(+2), McCain 49(+1)
SUSA: McCain 49(-9), Obama 46(+8)
The SUSA poll is way off, considering they show Dole also leading here. The Party ID may be the heart of the problem, with polls such as PPP giving a much larger Party ID advantage to Democrats
RCP Average: Obama 48.2, McCain 47.6

Wisconsin
CNN/Time: Obama 51(+1), McCain 46(-1)
SUSA: Obama 52, McCain 42
Wisconsin is becoming more and more of a solid Obama state, but for now it remains lean Obama.
RCP Average: Obama 50.3, McCain 42.8

Ohio
CNN/Time: Obama 50(+1), 47(unchanged)
PPP: Obama 49(+5), McCain 43(-5)
There is a clear trend towards Obama here in Ohio
RCP Average: Obama 48.9, McCain 44.9

Florida
Mason-Dixon: Obama 48, McCain 46
RCP Average: 48.3, McCain 45.3

Minnesota
Minn Public Radio: Obama 54(+6), McCain 40(+2)
Its turning into a blowout here.
RCP AVerage: Obama 52.3, McCain 41.8

New Hampshire
CNN/Time: Obama 53(+2), McCain 45(unchanged)
RCP Average: Obama 52, Mccain 41.3

Indiana
CNN/Time: McCain 51, Obama 46
R2K: Obama 46, McCain 46
RCP Average: McCain 48.5, Obama 46

To the Map!

Today we see movement into the Solid Obama column in a couple states. I've moved NH and MN into the solid Obama column because of the polls showing Obama up double digits there in the past week. Because of a mistake from yesterday, I've moved NM, WA, MI and NJ back into the solid Obama category which it was originally in. If the election were held today, I think Obama would win 51-45 over McCain.




http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvo.php

[jberryhill]

1. New Hampshire has been interesting to watch

They had a real good dose of McCain v.2000, and they've gotten the clearest picture of how v.2008 is not an "upgrade".

They were the nearest and dearest Northeast state, and it looked like they would have remained true believers.

But they had to let him go, because he gave away whatever it was he ever had for them.

[vaberella]

2. I think we're going to take AK and GA. We might take UT/MO. n/t