OMG: Gergen just said...it isn't over because Obama is black..

[Doityourself]

but he could lose as much as 6 points because of the race factor in America..and he doesn't believe the polls.

[Stand and Fight]

1. Maybe Gergen is revealing something of himself...

As well as the company he keeps.

[ClarkUSA]

30. His "fair and balanced" demeanor hides a fierce partisan.

As we can see...

[WinkyDink]

63. Indeed. He simply knows the side that is now buttered.

[anonymous171]

2. Obama realizes this. Why do you think he has spent so much money on GOTV projects?

[ej510]

3. It's true.

[Colobo]

4. Gergen needs to realize this is 2008, not 1992. The Nation has changed.

[endthewar]

64. Hannity and Limbaugh won't go into that dark night silently

Palin is going around trying to incite people to kill Obama.

[madaboutharry]

5. Oh Jesus.

n/t

[yodermon]

6. there ya go: pre-conditioning us for the "bradley effect"

that they may steal it.

[GreenPartyVoter]

23. Yep.

[1corona4u]

31. That's exactly why I think they keep throwing it out there...

so if this is way off from the polls, they can say; see, told you.

[treestar]

62. EXACTLY!

This is supposed to explain it when Obama loses but was ahead in the polls.

BS! Bradley ran in the 80s, long before there was a Limpballs and others to enable right wingers. And they will not by shy of telling the pollsters they are voting for McCramps due to that AND the fact that Caribou Barbie's presence on the ticket gives them her skirts to hide behind! They don't have to feel racist when they can claim not to be sexist!

[Coexist]

7. but they went on to discuss that the bradley effect didn't come to fruition in the primaries

except NH

[RichGirl]

17. One guy...forget his name...did mention that.

Personally, living in the south I think we'll get a reverse Bradley effect. Maybe both and it will be a wash. These people judge base their views on their expertise. But, don't notice changes happening in the world.

[Coexist]

24. toobin.

and I agree that many republicans will never admit to their friends that they will vote for Obama, but will in the booth.

[ShortnFiery]

What a disruptive ass - Gergen is media scum. eom

[sunnybrook]

40. I don't think you should be so dismissive of Gergen

I saw him recently criticizing the McCain commercial with Obama as Moses. He said that was simply racial code and any white person from the South (which he is) would recognize that code: i.e. Obama is "uppity" doesn't know his place, etc... I have heard him talk very candidly about racism, so I would not dismiss him so quickly.

[ShortnFiery]

71. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

IMNSHO, Gergen's an self-absorbed, corporate serving, horses' patootie. :P

[Phoonzang]

8. He's right.

Not talking about it won't make it go away. In fact, talking about it may lessen the effect.

[elkston]

35. You actually think that at this point its enough to lose? NO way.

Obama is pulling away in the numbers. Any "Bradley Effect" will be insulated.

Look. I'm black. I KNOW its going to be an issue. But I think Obama's support is far enough now (plus the voter turnout) blunt this.

[Motown_Johnny]

9. More evidence, racists tend to be both stupid and delusional

[crankychatter]

10. bradley effect they call it? supposedly subtract six or seven points from the polls if you're black?

if they steal it... that's how they'll explain the disparity

[charlie and algernon]

11. couldn't believe I heard that

Gergen looks awfully somber tonight

[regnaD kciN]

65. Remember that Gergen's a Republican...

...and former editor of the ultra-right (for its times) U.S. Skews & World Distort. When it signed on as Clinton's CoS (after the 1994 election debacle) he -- along with Dick Morris -- was instrumental in pushing Clinton to the "center" (i.e. Republican Lite) which ensured that the major "achievements" of Clinton's middle years were the signing of "welfare reform" and the Defense of Marriage Act. He may have a veneer of centrism, but he's Republican through and through.

[Frisbee]

12. Positioning ...

so that if the steal the election that can blame it on "closet racist". What a douche.

[Coexist]

16. and did carville just issue a serious warning not to try that shit?!

[Frisbee]

34. I missed that...

[Coexist]

42. he said, "if Obama goes into this with a 5 point lead and he loses..

(then he took a deep audible breath), I can't begin to tell you what will happen" and I think he repeated it again.

[mzmolly]

13. Total BS.

:eyes:

[HughMoran]

14. Dirty. Filthy. Underhanded

Even if there is a factor, HE is not the person to be pointing this out and NOT at this time.

Scumbag.

[spanone]

15. gergen is usually much more tolerable as a human being and pundit

[Sodan]

28. He did nothing but PRAISE Obama.

It IS the first time a black man is running for president.
I have the same fear but HOPE the American people will prove me wrong.

[Whalestoe]

18. Gergan is full of shit. There is NO Bradley Effect. Fuckers.

[BlooInBloo]

19. Well that's true. The last line of defense for republicans is racist appeals.

[NoodleyAppendage]

20. The horrible Gergen "comb forward" is hiding the craniotomy scar where the extracted his brain. n/t

J

[Teaser]

21. There has been no sign of a Bradley effect since the mid 90s

.

[GrizzlyMan]

22. I'm not sure he was that far off the mark

Any one of us who hasn't worried about that a little bit in the back of their mind is either not realistic, or a liar.

Where I think Gergen's point falls short is that we are facing an economic meltdown. People are worried about keeping their homes, their jobs and their health care. Race is less likely to matter if you think Obama is the right guy for the job. But to say there isn't some risk of that is ignoring some painful realities.

[anigbrowl]

37. Me neither, Gergen is an extremely fair commentator

Most of the insults and invective here are misplaced complaints from people who don't like being reminded of the facts. Obama has to work harder to win this election because unfortunately racism isn't dead in America yet. That's not Gergen's fault. Meantime, he's been extremely supportive of Obama, people should quit dissing him.

[Onlooker]

25. This will be their cover if they steal the election with voter fraud n/t

[1corona4u]

26. Oh, whatever.

He just talked out his ass....

[Barack_America]

27. This is about cynicism...

Gergen likes Obama and I think he was communicating a true fear there.

[nickgutierrez]

29. I actually think he'll win by *more* because he's black.

I see more evidence for a "Reverse Bradley effect" than the one so frequently cited.

[FreeState]

32. There is no Bradley effect (Link to study debunking it)

http://election.princeton.edu/2008/09/27/the-disappearing-bradley-effect/


The disappearing Bradley effect

The hot topic among polling nerds is the “Bradley effect,” which occurs when a non-white (usually black) candidate falls short of opinion polls on Election Day when he/she runs against a white candidate. For this reason it has been suggested that support for Obama might be overstated - a hidden bonus for John McCain. Now comes a large-scale empirical study (in preprint form) by Harvard political scientist Dan Hopkins. He finds that since the mid-1990s, the Bradley effect has disappeared. His paper is a must-read.

[sandnsea]

33. The racists are the ones voting for McCain already

Gergen should know that.

[THUNDER HANDS]

36. that actually took a lot of guts to say, as bluntly as he said it

i give him props for that.

[bigtree]

38. there's still time for Gergen to put on his hood

He'd rather act like he's just some casual observer of his republican friend's racism than actually speak out directly and forcefully against any notion that Obama should be rejected on the basis of his skin color. How long would it take for him to say that?

[parabolabear]

39. do you think people will go into the polls and in the privacy of the voting area, NOT vote for obama

and then say they did? :\ i know people who are like this, and i worry that in the few seconds that some spend at the voting booth, they'll let their racial issues come to the surface.

[Renew Deal]

41. Yes, and I think he was trying to make an honest point.

We're in uncharted territory here, and the US doesn't have the best history when it comes to race.

[MadBadger]

43. Stop it with the Fuckin smart arguments!

[bigtree]

47. he was just pissing in the pool

If he gave a shit he'd speak forcefully against the notion instead of highlighting it against Obama's lead in the polls.

[Renew Deal]

54. I don't think he was being negative towards Obama.

It wasn't some sort of covert racism.

[bigtree]

55. All of these media heads clucking their tounges at racism, sexism in this campaign . . .

If they're just pointing to it from their elevated platforms without actively condemning and opposing it they're nothing more than an echo of it, a partner.

[krkaufman]

44. His not saying it wouldn't make it untrue.

Racism *does* exist in America.

[Obamarulz11]

45. Gergen, DU's worst person in the world

[Elwood P Dowd]

46. Probably a Bohemian Grove talking point.

He is one of those you know.

[rateyes]

48. But, but, I thought Obama is white????

Gergen sounds like he's giving permission for racists to vote against Obama. Well, he's now on the shit list.

[regnaD kciN]

66. So he'll only have HALF a Bradley Effect...

;-)

[elkston]

49. Look. I am BLACK. I have always been cautious because of the racism factor..

BUT I think at this point, Obama is far enough ahead to compensate. Add higher voter turnout to this equation and we can BEAT the racists.

YES, there may be a tiny Bradley Effect, but we've got enough support to overcome it.

[minnesota_liberal]

50. What's that? It's not over because Gerkin's a bigot?

[jillan]

51. Omg - it was just yesterday that I was praising Gergen. I take it back.

[mzmolly]

52. I don't believe this point is relevant in today's national political arena.

"The overall accuracy of the polling data from the 2006 elections was cited, both by those who argue that the Bradley effect has diminished in American politics,<28><9> and those who doubt its existence in the first place.<30> When asked about the issue in 2007, Douglas Wilder indicated that while he believed there was still a need for black candidates to be wary of polls, he felt that voters were displaying "more openness" in their polling responses and becoming "less resistant" to giving an accurate answer than was the case at the time of his gubernatorial election.<31>"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect

*The above is relative to the Tennessee win by Harold Ford

Keep in mind Ford won in Tennessee, which is far more likely to see such an effect than the swing states in question.

[chitty]

53. I think he was trying to be gracious and state what may

be a correct assumption concerning some voters.

I don't always agree with Gergen, but I also don't think he was trying to stir up shit.

[Riverman]

56. Gergan is simply stating the obvious! It is not over and the racism

is endemic in this culture. The next four weeks will be a rough ride for all people who stand against all forms of racism. The impulse to be reactive against this tidal wave of hate that it now hitting the airwaves this week will be difficult to resist. It must be called what it is without resorting to getting into that gutter with those who are poisened by racist thoughts, words and actions. We will get thru this and Obama and the nation will break this yoke that has choked and enslaved us all from the beginning of the nation! ENOUGH!

Peace People - Almost there, but the real fight in ON!

[OneGrassRoot]

69. I agree. n/t

[democrattotheend]

57. You're going to hate me, but I think he's right

I've been saying the same thing for weeks. Because of who he is I believe Obama will always be the underdog no matter what the polls say. We CANNOT afford to be complacent, and we do Obama no favors if we deny even the possibility that there could be some degree of a Bradley Effect on Election Day.

[ecstatic]

58. I saw a clip of so called undecideds ..I think on CNN with Soledad

I don't know if that particular group thought Obama won the debate, but they said if the election was tonight, they'd vote McShame. So dumbazz undecideds will probably swing McShame's way on election day due to the familiarity of voting for the white guy.

[ej510]

59. I saw the same thing. That is why race is a factor. As a black man that brought me back

to reality.

[my3boyz]

67. All of them said they would vote for McCain? nt

[Cali_Democrat]

60. Many of you guys are missing the point

You need to look at his comment in the context of what he was saying.

He was actually making a pretty good point....that there is still racism in America and it could cost Obama a few points, although I don't know about six.

Racism in places like Ohio could cost Obama and that's why we must continue to fight and not be lulled into a sense of inevitability.

[woolldog]

61. Gergen isn't really knowledgeable about the polls

and trends with respect to black/white elections. He hasn't researched it; he's not familiar with the research on it; he's not familiar with the methodology of the various polls; he didn't follow what was going on during the primaries with respect to the reverse bradley effect in the south. In short, he's pulling his opinion out of his a$$.

[barack the house]

68. I think people have been pretty honest if they are voting against him on those reasons maybe too >

honest. I can't see a Bradley effect this time the tide is turning because folks mean it. "ENOUGH"

[shadowknows69]

70. It wa after that that Carville made his comment about if Obama loses

Going in at 5% or over ahead of McCain that there would be unspeakable troubles.