The most encouraging polls to me are from West Virginia, which we won't win

[Alhena]

in all likelihood. Here is the polling data for WV:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/wv/west_virginia_mccain_vs_obama-632.html

So two recent polls show Obama trailing in the 4-5 point range in a state where Hillary got something like 65% of the vote in the primaries. Even more amazingly, this is a state where, in 2004, Bush got 423,778 votes to 326,541 for Kerry. So the poll shows Obama doing better than Kerry, which is amazing to me. I really didn't believe the first poll showing him down by 5, but the new poll at the very least confirms that it's in the ballpark.

The fact that Obama has made up so much ground in WV makes it a lot more likelier that he will win Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia, which have large Appalachian populations. It's also encouraging in that it shows that, even in the most hostile areas for him, Obama has made very significant progress in recent months.

[BlooInBloo]

1. Where Clinton got 65% of the DEMOCRATIC vote, I think you mean...

In any case, PA is a lock, VA is likely, and OH just leaning-Dem tossup.

[Blondiegrrl]

2. I work in downtown Charleston, W.Va.

In the neighborhood surrounding the state capitol, there is an Obama sign in nearly every yard. Granted, that particular area appeals to Obama's demographics (affluent, educated, blacks, young people), but still, it's a lovely sight to behold.

[SheilaT]

3. Don't confuse strong Hillary support

in the primaries with no Obama support.

What matters is how Republican or Democratic a given state is, how many young pro-Obama voters show up, and how well the Obama campaign does in getting out the vote for him.

I am hoping that there are going to be a lot of wonderful surprises come election day.

[Aloha Spirit]

4. I still feel like Obama owes WV a visit...maybe after he wins :-)