Polls go up and down. Does that imply a group people switching back and forth?

[Bonobo]

I find that preposterous, if true.

Does anyone here know someone going back and forth? These days? When things are SO partisan?

I think the answers is that the polls are manipulated in method, mischarecterized, misreported and misunderstood.

Obfuscation.

[napi21]

1. I suspect it's because they poll a different sampling all the time.

Of course, if I'm right, that means that their extrapolation model is BS!

[sufrommich]

2. I think some people really do go back and forth.

Damned if I understand it,though.

[Epiphany4z]

3. Think they move around after the convention

then maybe a little more after the debates...but other wise no...debates made some comfee with Obama...and excited about Palin....other than that ..I think after the first debate...that is where we will be at...

[Ichingcarpenter]

4. I had Poll statistics and analysis with my Pol/Sci degree

Plus Methodology in grad school

Its not a mystery, but their methodology is really lacking these days.

[StrongBad]

5. I've thought this exact same thing.

My first thought was similar: Why are people so fickle and apt to change their mind at the slightest publicized event?

I'm sure there are a portion of people like that. I also think that these different results also have to do with imperfect statistical methods that always have 3 point or more margin of error. In a race that seems to be dead even, those 3 points can give a wide range of results.

[x-g.o.p.er]

6. I think it's because of the disparity in sample size and demographics

Some polls have more Democrats, some more Republicans, some more Men, some more women, etc.

[Bonobo]

8. I don't see how that could NOT be the case.

Flip a coin twice, you may not get a 50:50 ratio of heads to tails.

Flip it 20,000 times and you will get VERY close to a 50:50 ratio.

[Ichingcarpenter]

9. Their sample size of independents, repugs and democrats is not

weighted accurately or sampled correctly.

[tekisui]

7. Our good DUer phrigndumass has some good graphs

that illustrate what is going on. It does seem to be the same 10% changing their minds. They are the men, BTW: