Graph of the RNC's effect on the electoral vote race:

[bleever]

From the good folks at electoral-vote.com. :)

[BzaDem]

1. We'll really have to wait and see; that bump more reflects the DNC than the RNC.

State polls lag behind nationwide tracking polls, since multiple-state polls take longer and cost more than a single national poll.

[bleever]

3. That's a fair point;

here's a look at post-convention national polls, from the same site:

There are no state polls today, but there are five post-convention national polls.

Pollster Obama McCain Leader
CBS 42% 42% Tie
Gallup tracking 48% 44% Obama +4%
Hotline 46% 40% Obama +6%
Rasmussen tracking 46% 45% Obama +1%
YouGov 42% 39% Obama +3%

[chappydog26]

7. Great info, thanks!

We're still in the lead!

[bleever]

9. Welcome to DU, chappydog26!

Not a cause for complacency, but definitely encouragement to play hard, with confidence.

[Kber]

2. Awesome!

Thanks for sharing!!

[bleever]

4. Another graph, from Pollster.com:

Includes some results from during and after the RNC:




www.pollster.com

[99th_Monkey]

5. Wow, that's a nifty little graph. I'm lovin' it.. Thanks. ~nt~

[Patsy Stone]

6. That's beautiful

Here's hoping it stays that way.

:toast:

[bleever]

8. Actually,

I look forward to those lines diverging even further.

:hi:

[gratefultobelib]

10. Gives me goose bumps, I kid you not!

[Patsy Stone]

11. I'm not greedy

I'd settle for 271. :)

[bleever]

14. Admit it:

it would be nice to have a mandate.

[bleever]

12. Here's a more conservative look from FiveThirtyEight.com:

Today's Polls, 9/6

Although the topline results don't make it obvious, it appears that John McCain had a fairly strong night of polling in the daily tracking polls, which are the only numbers we have to look at today.

The Gallup tracker now shows Barack Obama leading by 2 points, down from 4 a day ago. When I attempt to estimate the daily results from the topline numbers, however, I get the following:

Wednesday: Obama +7.8
Thursday: Obama +2.4
Friday: McCain +4.2

So Obama's numbers are being propped up by a strong night of polling on Wednesday, which will cycle out tomorrow. He also held up relatively well on Thursday following Sarah Palin's speech (note: our estimate of his Thursday numbers has been revised slightly upward from yesterday's figures because of a methodological improvement I made to my tracking poll algorithm). But yesterday, McCain had a good night, most likely leading by somewhere in the range of 4 points. There is a good chance that tomorrow's Gallup numbers will show a tie or a McCain lead.

As for Rasmussen , it actually has Barack Obama gaining a point, and moving into a 3-point lead. However, it still looks like McCain may have had a relatively good night on Friday. My tracking poll algorithm will have more difficulty with the Rasmussen tracker than the Gallup tracker because Rasmussen uses a more complicated weighting procedure (i.e. weighting by party ID), meaning that we're a step further away from seeing "raw" numbers. But with grain of salt, here is what I show:

Wednesday: Obama +4.9
Thursday: Obama +3.8
Friday: Obama +0.3

Once again, I would caution against overinterpreting any of this. Conventions should produce bounces -- they are the equivalent of tens of millions of dollars in free advertising time.

/snip/

My hunch, as I've stated before, is that whatever numbers McCain winds up with over the weekend, Barack Obama will probably be polling a couple of points ahead of those numbers by the end of the upcoming week.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

And remember: it's not about the popular vote, it's about the electoral vote. Obama is working aggressively in key states, playing offense with confidence.

[cottonseed]

13. Still can't figure out how we got chumped so bad after the trip abroad.

Oh well, we're getting there... It'll be close like it always is, but I feel really good about this one.