How many primaries will Clark have to lose before he drops out?

[PFaithful]

My guess is that he will fade away quickly if he doesn't grab any state in the opening rounds. Kerry and Dean I think would stick it out no matter what, Kucinich and Gephardt would meander a while, and the rest are not going to win a single state. Any thoughts?

[eileen_d]

1. Here's a thought:

Ask him in person. Report back with your results.

[Name removed]

6. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[eileen_d]

10. How "70s"

n/t

[Bucky]

2. Clark must win at least one state on Feb 3rd

He will win Oklahoma, which is the bare minimum for staying in. If he wins South Carolina, he's the #2 guy in the race. If he wins OK & one other state, he's going to stay in a while.

(on edit)

I have a hard time seeing Gephardt bowing out before the Missouri primary. I have a harder time seeing anyone but Gep or Dean winning Missouri if Gep's in the race. But maybe a bad showing in mid-Jan in Iowa will force Gep out. He got a major endorsement in South Carolina, but that doesn't seem to be translating into support there yet.

Just as Lieberman and Kerry need to knock out Clark to stay in, Clark has to knock out Gephardt to stay viable. Clark also needs Edwards to fade out. As long as Gep and Edwards are staying in it, Clark will not break out of the pack.

Frankly, I think he's fading. But I'm still voting for him. His strength has always been as a unity candidate, not as a movement candidate. That will hold as long as some people drop out and he can stay on message. That's his strategy.

[PFaithful]

12. I agree with

the last bit but then you are voting for him in anticipation of the general election. Do you support his politics (what little he has stated an opinion on?)

[Bombtrack]

16. not to mention Arizona, Delaware, and New Mexico, all of which he polls

well in. Actually the last New Mexico poll I saw, Clark hadn't announced yet, however he does have an organization there.

I think, considering New Mexico is the most El Norte state of any of the primary or general election battleground states, http://www.massinc.org/Commonwealth/new_map_exclusive/ten_regions.htmlthat Clark should flaunt his catholism more, considering virtually all hispanics are catholic.

[zmannxx]

3. Clark is our key

I think Clark has a much better chance of winning the presidency. He's a 4 star General Rhode scholar. Bush wouldnt have a chance against him.

[SharonAnn]

11. Pentagon doesn't like him, right-wing will fight like H**ll

So there won't be any cakewalk with Clark or any other Dem candidate.

Remember the "he was removed because of character issues". They'll be all over him, just as they will be all over any other Dem candidate.

[Meritaten1]

20. Not true!

You are repeating unfounded allegations. After he was "removed," he received the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2000. Previously, he won a number of medals, including the Legion of Merit, Purple Heart, Silver Star...GOPers will have a very hard time trying to sling mud at him.

[PFaithful]

25. Who awards that metal, the pentagon or the prez?

[kerry-is-my-prez]

30. All they have to do is who the multitudes of positive comments from other

Generals, and other military people (including, ironically, Shelton and Cohen, Bush). In addition, Shelton is being snickered at because he doesn't back up his statement or specify what he's talking about. THEN you have the matter of how they played politics, acted without integrity, and stabbed Clark in the back.

Clinton backs Clark up. In addition, one of the biggest detractors of Clark, David Hackworth (who at one point called him the "perfumed prince") had initially fallen for Shelton and Cohen's b.s. did a complete 180 and now praises Clark to the skies.

http://www.couplescompany.com/Features/Frontlines/Clark.htm

[PFaithful]

15. And yet

that Texan baboon defeated Al Gore, a hands down genius in comparison. I think the mass voting public isn't all that impressed with academic credentials. If anyone says anything about Bushy Boy's Yale/Harvard lineage I'll prepare the staples for my gut.

[Tom Rinaldo]

4. Clark is solid

Even if Clark goes into round three before winning one. IF, and there is a big if, IF Clark mostly beats up on everyone other than Dean on Feb. 3rd, and if Dean is just squeeking out victories on Feb 3rd over Clark. The delegate count would still be close, and it would clear the field for Clark to pick up votes from backers of other candidates heading into the next decisive round.

Of course there is a good chance for Clark victories on Feb. 3rd.

[Meritaten1]

5. No offense, but your post makes a lot of assumptions

The primaries haven't been held yet. Clark hasn't "lost" any of them ...

[PFaithful]

8. No offense taken

But there is no need to state the obvious. This is a question not me soothsayer's foretelling of the near future doom to come for Clark

[Padraig18]

7. I suspect he's in until the Convention.

:)

[PFaithful]

19. He'll be advised to get out

of the way of the other candidates trying to build up steam for the general if he hasn't picked up enough states quickly

[zmannxx]

9. Lets go Clark

I would LOVE to see clark against Bush in a debate. The man is smart and has experience overseas and also seems to care about issues so important to most Democrats. He's more to the center and a great candidate in my opinion.

[PFaithful]

17. In the debates

with Gore Bush mentioned "fuzzy math" and no one seemed to mind. Even if Clark runsd circles around Bush's wit (not much of a challenge really) I don't think it will do too much for him.

[Gloria]

13. I heard him say that he planned to stay in all the way to the end...

would that be March?

[_NorCal_D_]

14. Clark is doing quite well

in a number of states, particularly South Carolina and Florida. He is also pulling ahead in California. B-)


Poll shows California Democrats favor Clark
http://www.thedesertsun.com/news/stories2003/state/20031016041602.shtml
<snip>Clark, who only joined the race last month, received support from 17 percent of Democratic voters surveyed in the new Field Poll.

Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean and U.S. Sen. Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut were favored both by 14 percent, followed by Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry at 9 percent and Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri with 5 percent.
</snip>

[Melinda]

27. You do realize the poll you cite is from 10/16 - right?

Right?

[Melinda]

31. To follow up - Clark's a very distant 3rd in California (42% behind Dean)

Endorsement results from the CDC Area and Regional 2004 pre-primary endorsement meetings: (Saturday, December 6 and Sunday, December 7, 2003, held in Fresno, Los Angeles, Monterey, Sacramento, San Diego, Santa Clara, Visalia and Yucaipa)

Governor Howard Dean - 56.11 percent
Congressman Dennis Kucinich - 17.19 percent
General Wesley Clark - 14.48 percent
Senator John Kerry - 5.43 percent
no other candidate received more than 2 percent

http://www.cdc-ca.org/result03.htm

[goobergunch]

36. California is Super Tuesday (3/2)

Florida is Southern Tuesday (3/9), which might be too late to make a difference.

[Patriot_Spear]

18. 5- if he averages no better than 3rd...

A lot more if he's able to knock out Kerry from the #2 spot.

[Mz Pip]

21. How many primaries

after NH will Dean have to lose before he drops out? Just wondering.

MzPip
:dem:

[PFaithful]

22. Don't kid yourself

Dean's going all the way

[Patriot_Spear]

23. Don't you think you're just a tad bit in denial?

Nothing personal- but how can you say that when every poll out there shows Clark in 2nd or 3rd place; in some cases tied for 4th with Lieberman?

I'm sorry, you're loyalty to Clark is admirable, but your stayement on this is easily challenged with the facts.

[PFaithful]

24. What are facts in comparison to blind faith

;)

[Patriot_Spear]

26. Answer: Zealotry.

Cult-like adherence to a belief that is contrary to the facts.

[teevee]

40. you consider polls as facts?

then you're the one who's in a denial, not to mention out of touch with reality.

too much reliance on polls. Polls are not facts, just a sample of who answered some questions.
silliness.

[Larkspur]

28. That depends on how much money Clark has and can continue to raise

Here's what I see --
Dean winning IA and NH. The former will be close and the latter by a big mile and may set a record, which could give Dean added FREE media publicity. Momentum from these victories will raise the excitement and fundraising of his growing support base, and these funds will pay for ads in the Feb. 3 states, which will lead to more victories in AZ, NM, DE. MO could be Gep's if he is still in the race or it could go to Dean. OK and SC will either be victories or a close 2nd for Dean.

Gephardt getting beat in Iowa. If he finishes behind Kerry or anyone else, he's toast. His fundraising is anemic and he won't survive beyond Iowa very much.

Kerry will linger at least until Feb 3. That all depends upon how much money he can raise to supplement his loan. I expect him to grovel at the feet of all $2,000 donors to write checks on Jan. 1 to fund his dying campaign. We'll see how many contribute.

Because Clark withdrew from IA and is campaigning for 2nd in NH, he'll have the most money of the other-than-Dean squad, and will be around a while, but unless he can pull off a win on Feb 3 and more later, Clark will not be a serious contender for the title of Dem Prez nominee. I see him trying to get as many delegates as possible to help the Clintonistas keep some control over the Dem Party platform.

Lieberman will be 3rd at best in NH, more likely 4th and be toast by Feb. 3. He'll be out of money.

Edwards will try to hang on until Feb. 3 but if he does poorly in SC, he may drop out depending upon how much money he has. He does have the ability to raise funds with trial lawyers and could compete with Clark.

[Patriot_Spear]

29. Interesting analysis. n/t

[OKNancy]

32. You predict a win for Dean in Oklahoma????

or a close second??

BWHAHAHAHA

[LuminousX]

33. Interesting analysis (nt)

[OKNancy]

38. It doesn't take a genius or a long screed to know

that Dean won't take first in Oklahoma. And in the general election he would do worse that Gore did, which was pretty bad. This is Republican hell.

[OKNancy]

34. You do know that a candidate could come in second in every primary

and still win the nomination....right? The delegates are assigned on a proportionial basis ( after 15%)

[Patriot_Spear]

35. That's my point- how many 2nd place ribbons before you get the message...

...you're NOT number 1?

[TexasPatriot]

37. eventually

someone is going to ask that question of themselves... i dont know if it'll be Clark though

[OKNancy]

39. That is my point, given the right set of states

a number two showing could win the nomination. Being number one doesn't matter. Let's say Dean gets 50% of the delegates in New Hampshire...that is 16 or 17 delegates. If Clark gets 50% of the delegates in Oklahoma, that is 30 delegates. There are so many combinations that it is just way too early for you Dean people to start making plans.

[Moderator]

41. I am locking this thread

1. If you start a thread in the General Discussion forum, you must present your opinion in a manner that is not inflammatory, which respects differences in opinion, and which is likely to lead to respectful discussion rather than flaming. Some examples of things which should generally be avoided are: unnecessarily hot rhetoric, nicknames for prominent Democrats or their supporters, broad-brush statements about groups of people, single-sentence "drive-by" thread topics, etc.