The 'Palin Drops Out' Theory, and its implicit dopeyness

[americanstranger]

As I cruise around the internets, I'm seeing more and more people speculating over what I'll call the 'Palin Drops Out' theory. It goes something like this:

McCain's pick of Palin as VP is so transparently stupid, so cynical on its face, that there simply must be another level of logic working here. What will happen is Palin will campaign throughout the general election season with McCain, be the good little soldier, help McCain win the White House - and then bow out for 'family reasons' so that McCain can appoint a replacement VP like Joe Lieberman, who was the guy he wanted as VP all along.

As best I can suss it, that's how it's supposed to go. The Palin pick is nothing more than Double Secret Rovian Genius Electoral Jiu-Jitsu, with the Governor of Alaska as the Ultimate Campaign Prop who will be used until McCain wins the White House, at which point she'll be tossed aside like a used Kleenex in order for McCain to put in the running mate he really wanted all along. I guess it's a nice theory, simultaneously re-generating the Mythical Rove Power Over All Elections Everywhere and the meme that McCain Will Do Anything To Get Elected.

But as with every theory, there is a potentially intrusive variable to fuck with this one - which is basic, standard-issue Grubby Republican Greed And Ambition.

Look at Sarah Palin's (and her husband's) public track record since she became Governor. She fired an official who wouldn't fire her ex-brother in law. Not to be outdone, the old man pushed one of Palin's top aides out of his job for dating his best friend's ex. Then she upped the ante again by hiring a known sexual harrasser to replace the aide - and paid the guy 10 Large in severance pay for the couple of weeks he spent in the job.

Todd Palin horned his ass into the Governor's Mansion, sitting in on supposedly-private meetings, being cc'd on confidential emails, and apparently pressuring his wife to fire people he didn't like. These two treated the Governorship as a license to fuck with people, all the while presenting themselves to Alaska (and now the country) as a Simple Hockey Mom and her Big Lug Of A Field Worker Hubby.

Hockey Mom?? Hardly. Look at the track record - these two are Tonya Harding and Jeff Gilooly minus the ice skates.

http://www.blah3.com/article.php?story=20080830143232513

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- as

[Name removed]

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[Midlodemocrat]

3. Actually, your response is pretty awful. Retarded is not allowed on DU.

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[wuushew]

2. There is a historical precident

The 1972 Democratic ticket.

Eagleton selected July 14th, backed out August 1st.

[americanstranger]

5. This is Eagleton in reverse.

Eagleton was hounded out by the media and the opposition.

This is something entirely different, and it assumes these two Alaskan Greed-heads would sit still for it. Do you really think they'd just go home and forget about it if Sarah Palin actually won the VP position.

I really doubt that.

- as

[Yavin4]

9. Once People Taste Power

They don't let it go.

[Hokie]

4. I don't buy the "he picked her to drop out" theory

However, I think that there is enough smoke up in Alaska that makes the chances of her premature exit something that deserves discussion.

[americanstranger]

7. Without a doubt.

Matter of fact, I make mention of that in the blog post:

That's why I think the 'Palin Drops Out' theory is bullshit. They aren't going anywhere any time soon. What I will bet on is that there will be some big-league creepy shit - like world-class, extinction-level event creepy shit - coming out about these two, and that could send tham back to Rube-ville.

Call it a hunch. These two - the Tonya and Gilooly of Alaskan Politics - have fucked with somebody along the way who's been waiting for years to get revenge, and won't hesitate to take it. Pass the popcorn.

- as

[vaberella]

14. So in essence you think shit is going to hit the fan soon for the GOP and this is a set up? n/t

[americanstranger]

17. I don't think it's a setup.

I think that McCain's boys didn't vet her to any extent. I think it was a last-second, reactionary pick in response to an amazing acceptance speech by Obama.

We shouldn't try to ascribe genius or cunning to what bay all appearances looks like a huge mis-step.

- as

[Mike Nelson]

10. I don't think so

Because Obama's focused and the Clintons are on board. Even with rigging, McCain's in trouble. If only the media would report on a REAL "rift" -- the Bob Barr convention.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

11. No, it was a stupid move, stupid gamble, but they will roll with it. No choice now.

[L. Coyote]

12. Either that or Don Young and several R Senators are getting indicted next month

and his was the only ploy that could distance McCain from them sufficiently, that is after the 5 million gaffe and the houses gaffe took out his actual pick, Romney. McCain had to call Romney at the last minute and say, I take that back!!! This while the "24 more indictments in the Abramoff scandal likely" news hit the presses and Steven implicated Cheney! The irony, Palin is promoting the pipeline Cheney just was implicated in!!

[Mz Pip]

15. It will all depend

on their internal polling. If the Palin pick ends up noticably hurting McCain's chances and the PTB of the GOP get nervous then there just might be some push for her to leave the ticket.

And I don't think I'm retarded for having that speculation.

Harriet Myers was on the right side of all the issues and look how well that worked out for her.

[americanstranger]

19. I would never call you that, Mz Pip!

And circumstances may dictate that they drop her - but that's only if their initial decision to roll the dice turns out to be as stupid as many of us think it was.

I don't doubt that could happen - but to see this as some master plan to get Lieberman into the White House is really stretching things.

The Rove wanna-bes running McCain's campaign - and even McCain himself - are nowhere near cunning enough to pull off what would be a very complex scam.

- as

[Mz Pip]

25. I certainly don't

see it as a plan to get Lieberman in the White House. Other then Iraq, McCain and Lieberman don't agree on all that much. Lieberman is all about Iraq.

I think it was a straightforward ploy to energize the base with a fundy wacko and pull in some independent women voters. I'm just not convinced the electorate is quite that stupid to buy into this, but 59,000,000 people voted for Bush so maybe McCain is counting on stupid still being a factor.

I'll give this a week to see how it dusts out. We'll see how McCain is doing after the festivities in MN. I wouldn't underestimate Palin's ability to give a good speech. On the surface she's pretty polished and attractive. Whether or not that's going to be enough is yet to be seen.

[yourguide]

16. I think she drops out

but not due to any brilliant secret strategy. Just because he didnt vet her and he is going to have his hands full.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

18. I think there's a strong possiblity that she may drop out...

And there's no nefarious "end game" going on here. I think McCain made a disastrous, hot-tempered decision, and he's going to pay for it.

Regarding the rest of this conspiracy theory, what people are forgetting is the 25th Amendment, which requires a new Vice President to be confirmed by a vote of the full House and Senate. Good Luck getting Holy Joe appointed Vice President after his behavior during the past few months.

And that's also assuming that McCain is going to win in November, which he won't.

[americanstranger]

20. I hadn't even thought of the confirmation angle!

Great point.

- as

[bullimiami]

21. wasnt there already a mccain drops out theory?

[americanstranger]

22. Now that you mention it - yeah, there was!

As I remember it, he was going to run for a while, then drop out due to 'health reasons' and hand the keys to Mitt or Rudy.

Same principle applies to that theory - McCain (and even moreso, Cindy) has way too much ambition to just give up a shot at The Big Chair.

Remember, these are Republicans we're talking about here. :)

- as

[goodgd_yall]

33. And remember the one about Hillary usurping the nomination process?

The Clinton's were supposed to be so in control of the Democratic Party that they would stage a coup at the Convention.

[goodgd_yall]

23. Palin strikes me as having a lot of ambition

I don't see her dropping out on her own. And if she's messed with by Republican Party strategists, she's bound to blow the whistle as she's done before.

[mnhtnbb]

29. She will dissolve under the pressure. She has no idea what she's gotten herself into.

[goodgd_yall]

30. She won't dissolve

I suspect she'll do a shitty job and hang in there just like every other Republican who has done a shitty job hangs in there until they hand in "a resignation" or lose an election. Sometimes, as in GWB's case, they're forced out due to the rules. He never gave up and look what he's been through. It's completely embarrassing to have as low an approval rating as he has.

Palin, if anything, seems like a tough cookie. She's ambitious and ruthless (have you read about her firing people? It seems like a lot of people who have worked with her or who have been her constituents don't like her. She get on going though. Unfortunately, she's on a mission, and the mission is not for the good of the majority of the people, but only for the good of a few.

[mnhtnbb]

24. She'll drop out BEFORE the convention. There's not a polar bear's chance in AK

that McCain can win the election with her as his VP.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

26. I can see it now...

Wednesday night at the RNC. Palin drops out earlier in the day, and McCain comes out to tell the delegates to look under their chairs. Whoever has the Schlitz coaster taped to the bottom of their chair gets to be the Vice Presidential nominee.

What the hell. It's not like he was going to win anyway.

[mnhtnbb]

28. ROFL

:rofl:

[Greg K]

27. Wishful thinking

It's not gonna happen.

[goodgd_yall]

31. ...

What's with these people?? Absolutely right---wishful thinking.

[greguganus]

32. Maybe McClown will drop out. n/t