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I remember talking to my mum in December before my parents came here for New Years. She thought Hillary would win, despite her not liking Hillary very much (not trying to flame here, just a POV from my mum). I said she won't win, Obama will win.
My mum initially backed Richardson and still likes him to this day, changing to Obama after Richardson dropped out (caucused for Obama in Minnesota).
I also argued with people in the pub and they all thought Clinton would win, saying that no one would vote for a black man. I said nope Obama will win the nomination.
I've tried to think of several factors in choosing his VP, and I've come to a conclusion and it's not a popular one here though (Biden and Kaine are popular choices here):
1) Obama is a candidate that takes risks, and the results are positive for him. He took the risk running for President (everyone expected him to lose). He took the risk with the 50 State Strategy (people mocked him, "winning the states that don't matter" sort of talk). He took a giant risk with the famous race speech and it was fantastically positive for him.
His VP choice will be a risk choice. It'll be someone who we didn't expect. It'll be someone that people may say, "Oh, too much change." Obama has defined himself as a Change candidate and his VP will be the embodiment of change as well.
2) 50-State-Strategy: This was Obama's mantra during the primaries and it worked for him. He'll now focus on this strategy while running against McCain. The idea of this is to work hard in safe Dem states but also take advantage of states that the Republicans have always depended on winning but don't bother visiting much. Obama's VP choice will have the advantage of delivering as many former R states to the Dem column.
Here's my analysis of the 4 most talked about VP choices and the chances of adding a state to the D column: Biden (0 states added, comes from a strong Dem state), Bayh (0 states added, as Indiana is quite conservative), Kaine (1 state added and even that is a bit sketchy, but Virginia is slowly trending blue), Sebelius (0 states added, Kansas probably won't go to Obama).
Obama's best chance of adding more to the D column is to pick someone from the mountain west. If he picks Richardson, he most likely has at least 3 state pickups (New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado) and putting 3 states in play (Arizona, possibly Texas, and possibly Florida). The aim is to get as many EVs as he can and none of the 4 most talked about possible VP choices do that.
Also the 50 state strategy will put several states back in the D column such as Iowa and Missouri.
That's why I think Obama might pick someone from the Mountain West and also an embodiment of his message. Someone like Richardson would fit the bill.
It may not be a popular choice here (Biden seems to be in front of all the polls) but in order for Obama's 50 State Strategy to really come to fruition it'll be someone from the Mountain West.
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