Fool me once...

[bdf]

Let me expand upon that bit of traditional folk wisdom:

Fool me once, shame on you.

Fool me twice, shame on me.

Fool me three times, you must be Karl Rove

I strongly suspect Rove is going for the hat-trick here.

First, let me point out that the Bush maladministration are not stupid. Dubya may be (although I think it is played up for reasons that will become apparent below) but the rest aren't. Sure, if you make the mistake of thinking that they're trying to do what is best for America you'll see them all as crazy fucktards and that everything they touch turns to shit. But if you realize that their sole concerns are to steal power and wealth for themselves and their obscenely-rich cronies, everything they have done has makes perfect sense and cannot be seen in any way as failure (even Iraq, which appears as though they have fallen foul of Hubris, may yet prove not to be an error).

If you don't believe me, one single example suffices. They stole the first election and they were so blatant about it that they were exposed (but not punished). That led to HAVA which was strongly supported by Dems in order to prevent the theft of another election. HAVA allowed Diebold to steal the second election for Dubya. They think several moves in advance.

How did Rove fool us the first time? By getting Dubya elected (well, not really elected, but you know what I mean) in the first place. People didn't kick up too much of a fuss about the stolen election because Bush was such a fucktard. They figured they could live with him for four years because he wasn't competent enough to cause any damage.

How did Rove fool us the second time? By getting Dubya elected again (see above parenthetical comment). We all knew that Dubya was such a fucktard that not even Republicans would vote for him. So we didn't try too hard to win the election because we knew we had the upper hand anyway (BTW, I'm using "we" editorially there as I'm a Brit). So things were close enough that with only a small fraction of the votes stolen we got another four years of hell. If we'd gone all out that small fraction of the vote (all they could get away with) wouldn't have been enough. But Kerry played a soft game, went on vacation leaving people to think he'd lost interest, etc., and the gap narrowed enough for Dubya to steal the vote.

How is Rove going to fool us the third time? By putting forward another lame fucktard candidate. One whose own campaign seems to be losing him popularity. One whose attack team seems to reach for Uzis then pointing them at their own feet and firing on full auto until the magazine is empty. So again we're not trying to hard. Again Obama is refraining from major attack ads. Obama is on vacation, as though he's lost interest.

Rove is giving political advice to McCain. Do you think Rove has lost his touch? Do you think that anyone in the McCain campaign who accidentally screwed up and came up with an ad that hurt McCain more than it hurt Obama would be on it for more than ten minutes afterwards? If McCain's campaign is scoring own-goals it's because Karl wants it to. He wants us to think that MCain has no chance so we don't fight very hard.

It's no coincidence that the polls are showing a narrow gap when our own experience tells us that more than 60% of Americans hate George Dubya Bush's guts with a passion and hate McCain almost as much for being Dubya's twin. It's no coincidence because in order to get away with stealing an election the polls have to be close enough for the final result to be plausible to the hard-of-thinking.

I could be wrong about this. It could be even worse. It could be a diversion to enable him to mount a false-flag "October Surprise" that leaves us with martial law and Dubya being unelected president for the duration of the "emergency" (one which will never end).

All I know for sure is that if Rove is working for McCain (and he is) then no aspect of that campaign is contrary to Rove's plans.

[Cleita]

1. I agree with you a hundred percent.

What I need to know is how we are going to trip them up this time. Playing by the rules with cheaters will not get us a win.

[CrispyQ]

2. Anyone who thinks Obama has this locked has their head up their ass. --nt

[madwivoter]

4. I don't know anyone who thinks Obama has this locked up.

In fact, everyone I know is working their asses off because they are worried.

Maybe you're referring specifically to DU posters who think this is a done deal, but I haven't seen too much of that either.

Always on guard.

[CrispyQ]

5. I've read more than one post that spouts confidence in our win.

Who counts the votes?

And equally important, why haven't the dems addressed this issue?

Glad you are on guard! We should all be!

[PurityOfEssence]

9. That's been the thundering "conventional wisdom" around here for months

Thread upon thread with post upon post trumpet inevitability. Every version of mindbending justification to nominate Obama despite possible drawbacks and every conceivable debunking of anything that could be a problem flows unendingly. Not a day goes by without some flaw, mistake or setback being touted as not only "not a problem" but actually a triumphal blessing of the first order. No abandonment of any populist position is too outrageous, and no statement that panders to the right is to be taken seriously. People snicker and relish the fact that he's only lying to "them", knowing in their leaping hearts that he'd never do that to "us", regardless of his voting record.

Perhaps it's your low post count, but this place has been up until the last week or so unremittingly, RESOUNDINGLY and domineeringly CERTAIN of the inevitability.

Articles elsewhere ring with the scary repetition of famous people and others citing the same spiritual moment of "knowing that this man would be the President of the United States". This is from people who knew him in early adulthood, people who met him outside of politics; it's incredible. Everyone nods along and chants the same shared "feeling", yet few see the similarity between this and the brainwashing of the right and of religion.

The voluble aggressiveness one is met with when one even suggests that there might be a bit of a misstep is deafening.

It's like living in an alternate universe where nobody knows any history and doesn't even remember '03, when Dean was already elected, just awaiting the keys to the White House.

Only recently have the voices of caution been suffered to meekly suggest otherwise, and still the silliness persists. Daily assumptions of the HUGE sweep of the electoral college are taken as gospel.

One can't even adequately describe the dynamics of the movement without using words with religious overtones, and that's because so very much of this, the man's character, his actual plans and his actual beliefs are airy nothing and subject to being imprinted with any personal assumption and conjecture in the vacuum that is sweet, sweet bliss.

It's a faith-based campaign, and that needs to come crashing down to hard, cold reality but quick or we're going to be left standing with our crepe-paper streamers in our confused hands as the bully-boys take a third in a row.

At least people are starting to see the peril, but they're missing the salient point: those who are ga-ga over his star quality are already in line, and there aren't enough of them to swing the vote. To WIN, a different approach must be used, one that relies on policies and specifics.

[madwivoter]

11. I don't "know" anyone who thinks Obama has this locked up

I'm referring to the world outside of DU. Which is where I base my opinion that most people that are supporting Obama are not taking anything for granted, donating as much money as they can and volunteering when they have time. I'm one of those people.

That's a helluva post you've got there. You are very...descriptive. I'll leave it at that.

I know people love to read a lot into someone who has a low post count, but I'm here every day reading many great posts (and have been for years).

[Alter Ego]

12. There's not a soul here who honestly believes there won't be trickery on the Republicans' side.

But we are allowed to show a little confidence. We picked an excellent candidate, we're facing an old, worn-out, uninspiring windbag of a Republican.

Our campaign is brilliantly run, theirs is a mess of backstabbing, ego-centric assclowns who can't get along with each other long enough to decide on lunch.

The political climate is 10000000 times more toxic for Republicans than Democrats this time around--even more so for Republicans who happen to be supporters of Bush's war.



No, we shouldn't be foolish. But we have to put 2004 behind us or we'll never win 2008.

[bdf]

14. Is their campaign really a mess?

Remember that Rove is on board. He doesn't let even minor mistakes past him.

Which scenario do you think best explains McCain losing the plot and volunteering his wife for a topless bimbo competition?

Rove has lost it. Even though he appears as a supposedly unbiased political analyst on news whore TV and gives what seem (at first glance) to be unbiased responses but are actually slipping the knife in, Rove has lost his touch.

Rove didn't think to check what sort of event it was so didn't warn McCain there were topics to avoid. Rove who plans several moves ahead in meticulous detail.

Rove said to McCain "Don't fucking enter Cindy into the Miss Cowpoop contest or I'll have to Tase you again," but McCain did it anyway because he's almost as FUITH as Dubya.

Rove said to McCain "Don't fucking forget to enter Cindy into the Miss Cowpoop contest even if you don't understand why I want you to do it or I'll have to Tase you again."

As I recall, there were a lot of posts here after that incident concluding that McCain was virtually unelectable because he just lost the more intelligent Republicans. But we thought Dubya was unelectable in 04. Come to that we thought the same thing in 2000. And we thought we'd take Congress in 02. We did take Congress in 06, but not by a large enough margin to get anything meaningful done (we can't even tell Lieberman to FOAD because he's the deciding vote in the Senate.

But maybe this time when Charlie Brown runs up to kick the ball, Lucy Rove won't pull it away. There's always hope...

[Alter Ego]

15. Rove is not officially on board--so he cannot control the message as effectively.

Bush's campaign was all about "compassionate conservatism". That was their thing, their schtick. And you know what? It was disingenuous, but it was also brilliant, because it clearly defined him.

What does McCain have? Other than "angry old man who's pissed about his opponent's popularity", he's the "WARS GUYZ" candidate. His campaign is riddled with big-money lobbyists. Rick Davis, his chief strategist, screwed Rust Belters out of their jobs--a story that is picking up steam.

No, McCain is a horrible candidate. He is old, uninspiring, mean-spirited, and he cannot seem to get his story straight on anything. And Obama is not Kerry 2004--he is more inspiring, more forceful.

Yeah, Rove's an evil genius--but for God's sake he's not some evil omnipotent being.

[bdf]

16. Rove is not on board the same way

That Henry Kissinger wasn't on board in the Bush maladministration.

There is no disputing that Rove is involved with the McCain campaign. There is no disputing that we're already seeing the often-used Rovian tactic of putting fringe issues on the ballots.

But hey, if Rove doesn't have an official title on the campaign team and he gets paid under the table, then he doesn't have any real influence, right? And anyway the whole McCain team, as well as McCain himself, don't really want Rove's advice because he was so successful at determining the outcome of the 2000, 02 and 04 elections.

[Alter Ego]

17. If he's giving them advice they're clearly not taking it

because McCain's campaign is a disorganized mess compared to Obama's and even Bush 2000 and 2004.

[bdf]

18. Suppose the advice is

That the campaign appear to be a disorganized mess?

Perhaps Rove has determined that's the single most effective step he can take. To lull us into the belief that we don't have to work very hard. To convince Obama not to respond to McCain's dirty attacks with clean attacks because McCain can't win anyway. Then use wedge issues in the state polls to drive up the wing-nut turnout.

[Alter Ego]

19. If their plan is to lull us into a false sense of security they're not doing a good job.

We already know we have to work our asses off--that's never gonna change.

But you cannot sit there and tell me that this campaign would not be different if Rove was conspicuously pulling the strings.

And Obama DOES respond to McCain's negativity--so I guess their plan has failed.

[bdf]

22. You and I might know we have to work our asses off

But others are slacking off. There's increasing air of invincibility. An increasing tendency to dismiss McCain as unelectable.

I'm telling you that this campaign may be the way it is because Rove is inconspicuously pulling the strings. And it's not so inconspicuous. The attack ads are clearly derived from Rove's work, and Rove is connected with the campaign.

Obama does respond to McCain's negativity but not particularly quickly and not particularly strongly. And that holiday, although not as suicidal as Kerry's (at least Obama was visiting relatives and campaigning rather than windsurfing) was a blunder.

Is there some Democratic master strategist who keeps telling candidates that the best campaign trick is to go on holiday? And that the second-best is to be photographed in a situation that makes you look foolish (Dukakis in a tank, Kerry in that silly clean-room suit in a narrow cylinder at Nasa)? Is Obama going to be photographed wearing a clown suit emerging from a manhole in the road?

I hope I'm wrong and you're right. Because if it's the other way around we're fucked.

[flamingdem]

3. I agree about the importance of the Diebold-Rove factor

but nobody seems to be doing anything about it! The MSM have got to stop their complicity in the search for horserace ratings. Obama has to be more ahead than the polls say and they need to report the grassroots movement advances, etc.

[SidneyCarton]

6. There is overconfidence on one side and paranoia on the other.

Rove is not God, 2006 proved him neither omnipotent, omnipresent or omniscient. That said, he is dangerous and his plots must be combatted with vigilance and preparation. Act, work and watch your back.

[bdf]

7. To say Rove is not God is sacrelige!

You're right, he's not God. And you're right, he didn't get the 2006 elections all his own way, and the Dems took control of both houses of Congress.

That's why Bush and Cheney have been impeached. That's why Rove and many others have been hauled before Congress, kicking and screaming, on contempt charges and are now languishing in a small cupboard in the bowels of Congress that has been pressed into service as a prison cell. That's why dictatorial legislation such as the US PATRIOT Act and enhancements to FISA have been repealed. That's why the endemic corruption inside the Justice Dept has been weeded out and destroyed. Right?

Rove might not have got all he wanted in 06 but he got a lot more than we wanted.

The only times Dubya didn't take a vacation in the past 7 years were the times he was on the campaign trail; Kerry went windsurfing in the middle of the campaign trail and Obama has just gone to Hawaii. They obviously don't take this campaigning stuff as seriously as Dubya did and McCain does. And that's what scares me.

Rove has plenty of tricks up his sleeve, but this is the third time he's played the "my candidate is such a dufus you can take things easy because he has no chance of winning" and I really would hate for us to fall for it this time. I thought Bush didn't have a chance in 2000, that Bush didn't have a remote chance in 04, the Congress would be at least 75% Dem in both houses on 06... If I didn't know better, I'd say McCain doesn't stand a ghost of a chance this time around.

[SidneyCarton]

8. True enough.

I'm not saying we have this one in the bag any more than you are. That said there is a prominent post on the homepage pointing out that we have virtually no chance of winning this one, that the "fix" per say is already in. Such ideas are no more constructive than a smug assurance that we have this one won, because if this guy is right, then there is no reason to show up on election day, and we would all be better served by a trip to the bar for some liquid courage to face the next 4 years than another futile trip to the ballot box.

While I stand by my statement about Rove not being God, he must not be underestimated too. But one of the best lies you can tell your enemies is that you're infallable, if they believe it they won't even bother taking the field. I'd prefer to make KKKarl actually sweat for this victory.

[PurityOfEssence]

10. Bush and Cheney have NOT been impeached

Where did you get that? Only two Presidents have been impeached and they were both acquitted.

You're right on this, though: Rove is not a genius. His trick is that he plays to the cheap seats and has no compunction to stooping to ANYTHING. The meek and powerless find this impressive, just as nuns swoon over gangster pictures, but it's nothing more than blatant sociopathy on the part of Herr Rove and prurient titilation from the spineless who lap it up.

Here's the bad news: Obama's not that good, and he's not what he's selling himself as. He's not a bad guy, but he's selling himself as "new" and "above the usual political fray", when he's PRECISELY the opposite. He's done very well in the minor leagues by being on both sides of any issue he couldn't duck outright, but now he's got enough of a track record that these contradictory stances are going to be thrown back into his face like Monty Python's "Fish Slapping Dance". At least Hillary would probably admit to being a mealy-mouthed, ward-heeling pol, but butter won't melt in Mr. Obama's mouth, and when he's caught, repeatedly, doing precisely that, it's not gonna be good to the lily-livered and frail hero-worshippers.

Icarus is flying mighty high right now, and it worries me.

I hope he can continue to get away with it, but the numbers aren't good and I don't think he or enough of his followers have learned the lesson. They're still playing the same game of an early campaign when it's advanced to another stage. At this point, those who will be swept along with the bandwagon thrill of the new are already on board; now it's time to deal with the grown-ups and appeal to rationality instead of insipid addle-headed hero-worship.

Damn good thing McCain's such a crappy candidate and generally crappy person, but even that may not be enough.

[bdf]

13. I should have used a sarcasm smiley

But I thought it was kinda obvious when I started that paragraph by saying that Dubya had been impeached that it was a long list of all the things we hoped to achieve by taking both houses of Congress but haven't.

The reason we haven't achieved much is that Rovian manipulations prevented us taking the number of seats we should have. That means we cannot afford to replace Pelosi because the majority isn't large enough to do things like that. So Rove may have not got everything he wanted but he got enough to stop Congress taking the sorts of actions it should.

And maybe Rove didn't give any seats away that he didn't want to. Maybe he wanted things close to a knife-edge with Dems nominally in control. The Dems nominally being in control means that they can take the fall for every fuck-up by Bush in the past two years, and McSame can be touted as vital to balance Democratic control of Congress. But since it's a marginal thing, the Dems don't have the effective power to impeach and indict the entire maladministration.

[KittyWampus]

20. you, and any DU'er who agrees with you, that think Obama and Kerry aren't/didn't work hardt

are fools.

Apparently you're so fucking smart you're too stupid to grasp how corrupt the media is.

And the only way to fight election theft is to have party infrastructure in place AHEAD OF TIME.

And Clinton's cronies in the DNC allowed that infrastructure to crumble.

[bdf]

23. Kerry worked hard, but not hard ENOUGH

That windsurfing holiday was a major mistake. That photo at NASA (he was assured that no photos would be taken and was foolish enough to believe it). There are numerous mistakes Kerry made because of overconfidence. And even then he won the election. Or would have if not for the vote stealing.

The only chance Obama has of winning is to play it as though McCain has a 15-percent lead in the polling. Because come the real election, that's slightly more than I think Rove can get away with by vote-rigging, putting wedge issues on ballots, etc. It seems to me that Obama's team is acting like it has a 5-percent lead (which is probably about right, even if the polls say it's a lot closer). When you have a 5-percent lead you relax and just tread water to maintain it. Five percent isn't going to be enough on the day.

[QueenOfCalifornia]

21. You are not wrong

what you wrote is 100% correct.

The fix is in. The fixed/rigged voting machines are all ready to go and in November, when it's cold and raining and people in "certain" areas try to vote, guess what? They will be told to go away....

Flame away but I do not have some crazy problem with my memory.