Ohio, Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, Montana, Nevada, Indiana.

[saltpoint]

Singling out these 7 states for now.

Bush/Cheney carried all of them in 2004.

I believe we will carry at least half and maybe -- maybe -- all of them in 2008.

If Obama retains the Kerry states from the 04 elections, and wins in say, half or more of these in 08, he is the next President of the United States.

[cbc5g]

1. He only need Kerry states +IN + IA

Which is why he will pick Bayh. There are so many combinations, it's nuts. He could win Kerry + VA + NM and win it too. Or Kerry + IA + NM + CO or Just Kerry + OH

[saltpoint]

3. Yes -- the math looks encouraging. Some had work is still ahead

in many regions of the country, but it's suddenly competitive and encouraging on a district-by-district basis.

In very solid red Butler/Warren county areas, for example, there is a Barack Obama office in a town called Middletown, roughly between Cincinnati and Dayton.

Obama's sleeves are rolled up and he's ready to rumble.

[Condem]

16. Damn, Crusoe

I went to UD. Are you in Ohio?

[saltpoint]

18. UD. My god. Always a landmark for me.

I had considerable truck with the Wasson Piano School back in those days. A friend from the class above me is now at Sinclair, just up I-75.

My favorite white oak tree in the world is at Antioch.

Dayton was struck hard by the post-industrial shift and hasn't fully ever recovered, although Montgomery County was the only SW county in Ohio to go blue for Kerry in 04. I think every other surrounding county was red.

Go, Flyers!

[Condem]

21. Classs of 82, my good friend

Shared a fraternity and lived next door to one, Dan Patrick. Though then he was just Dan Pugh. Know him?

[saltpoint]

24. Not sure. I knew one family of Pughs from a neighborhood well south of Dayton

called Stoneyrill.

The names of the family's members are a bit blurry at this point but it's at least possible your pal was from that branch of the Pugh tree.

So. Good person. I don't have to tell you about Vic Cassano pizza. You could by god tell ME about Vic Cassano pizza.

[Condem]

28. Yes, I could.

And Milano's, Timothy's, The Pine Club, Flanigan's, Skyline chili, all of it. A stroll down memory lane. BTW, Crusoe. It's Dan Patrick from ESPN, but methinks you already knew that.

[saltpoint]

30. No, I didn't know... thanks for the info -- I should say the knock on

the head -- I need to wake up and smell the coffee sometimes.

Skyline Chili. My god. I could go for a 5-way this second.

[Condem]

32. I'll buy you breakfast at the Golden Nugget.

Win Ohio for us, Crusoe. It's a tall order.

[saltpoint]

35. The Golden Nugget. Hell, I'm in.

Did you ever go to the Forest Book Store & Record Shop by any chance? Most of my early LP (!) collection came from there. It's probably long gone by now, but in its heyday, it was the nucleus of culture!

I'll send you and MellowDem and other DUers in Ohio all positive vibes but I don't live there any more. I follow midwest politics because they're so precarious.

Ohio and Iowa are both going blue in November, I predict.

Dubya's stolen them from us and I want them back!

[MellowDem]

27. Hey!

I just graduated from Miami University and currently reside in Middletown. I dropped by the office there a couple days ago to get some bumper stickers, and they were all out! Very encouraging indeed.

[saltpoint]

33. MellowDem, if you'll accept a late welcome, I'm offering one.

Welcome to DU.

THANK YOU for being a progressive and dropping by that office.

That's where elections are won and lost. Your district there has not usually sent great people to Congress -- obviously no fault of yours. In times past, Buzz Lukens represented that district. For a short while Walter Powell did -- he was a little better than Lukens, although not much.

A florist who loved to smoke cigars, David Armbruster, was elected for a term or two. Used to run a floral shop on (I think Grand Avenue and Highland).

And not far from you, in Blue Ball, there is the nation's only monument to the Poland China Hog.

Not a whole lot of national Democrats come by and even fewer open offices there. Good for Obama for opening that one in Middletown and good for you for supporting it.

[MellowDem]

47. I agree

I am not from the Middletown area, but from my time here, you would think that this dying steel town would be very blue, yet it has a real conservative culture to it I guess. Anyways, I hope the people here see that they would be voting against their economic interests by voting Republican. If there is any election year for them to see that, this is it.

Thanks for the welcome!


:hi:

[saltpoint]

48. god, you have read that place perfectly.

I hope to see more of your posts on DU in coming weeks.

A pleasure.

[Quixote1818]

4. He is up huge in Iowa right now

One of his better states.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

UGH. Hope he opt for the VA combo - I hate Bayh. He's intellectually

lazy - an empty suit

[Laura PourMeADrink]

7. UGH. Hope he opt for the VA combo - I hate Bayh. He's intellectually

lazy - an empty suit

[depakid]

8. Indiana requires over a 20% swing

you'd have better odds of drawing an inside straight.

[Carrieyazel]

15. I wouldn't count on IN even with Bayh as the #2.

Richardson's a better pick.

[Cosmocat]

31. I agree ...

BO is a smart guy ...

I don't see why, given Bayh's fantastic resume, that he won't go with him, take the bird in hand and go from there ...

[TwilightZone]

2. He's up slightly in CO, NV, and IN, according to electoral-vote.com

I'm surprised at McCain's slight lead in OH. I suspect that reality is quite a bit bluer.

Montana is very close at the moment, but I would be very surprised if McCain doesn't win it fairly easily. I would love to be wrong there.

Link: http://electoral-vote.com/

[saltpoint]

5. Agree with you -- I think McCain will fade in Ohio and that it is

blue turf in 08.

I am VERY encouraged by that Indiana tally. I know it's early, but those numbers this early auger well for Obama.

Thank you for the link.

[TwilightZone]

22. After '00 and '04, IN going blue would be a shock.

It certainly looks very possible, at the moment, though!

[saltpoint]

40. Yes. Agree that it's a tough chance but the early numbers could

be motivating. If Obama can mount a successful campaign in Indiana, it might also sweep Jill Long Thompson into the governor's office, which would mean Hoosiers wouldn't have to put up with Mitch Daniels anymore as well.

I've got my fingers crossed for that kind of outcome in November. Go, Hoosiers!

[AlinPA]

6. Pick Schweitzer for VP and you can add ND, SD, NE and improve MN, WI,

MI.

[saltpoint]

19. Schweitzer brings SO much. What a class act.

[davidinalameda]

34. he's up for re-election this year

I think he'd be a great addition to the ticket but I doubt he'll give up a sure shot to be re-elected

[TwilightZone]

39. NE will not happen.

Trust me, I've lived here for 20 years. The only way McCain loses NE is if he dies before the election. Bush won it by 35%.

[TheFarseer]

53. McCain would still win if he died

I don't think there's anything he could do to lose NE. I've been thinking with a major gaffe, he could lose Omaha though, like if he said he needs to raise taxes. My dad is a farmer, is convinced McCain will end the ethanol subsidie and possibly all farm subsidies, and is STILL VOTING McCAIN!!

[Capt. America]

9. Forget Ohio-Its Red, I know, I live here

[book_worm]

11. Then why is Obama leading in nearly every Ohio poll?

[Capt. America]

12. The polls don't factor in the "Bradley" effect.

Also, they are also going to have a gambling initiative on the ballot again this year which gets Team Jesus out to vote against it. While they are there, they will vote against the black guy. (See also: 2004, anti-gay marriage and Kerry)

[Radical Activist]

50. They also don't count the surge of new voters effect.

Black and young turnout will make all the polls wrong.

[Carrieyazel]

14. One poll in Ohio has McCain up by 10. Ohio is the toughest on the list, IMO.

[JoshDem]

55. Latest Ohio Ras poll has Obama Down 7 points.

[Arugula Latte]

10. Kerry actually carried at least Ohio and New Mexico

But, I know what you're saying. :)

[Carrieyazel]

13. All of them? That would take something earth shattering to happen.

Ohio is not looking good. For obvious reasons, that state (as well as Indiana) are the two toughest to move to Democratic. Nevada and Montana would be the next toughest; short of a McCain meltdown, these two western states are the least likely of the 4 battlegrounds out there to go blue, although we definitely have a legitimate shot.

Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico are the top three candidates here to move away from the Pukes.

I do agree with you that all seven of these are battleground states. Since all seven went red last time, and I count just a few other (Dem-leaning) battlegrounds, this means McCain will have to defend far more states.

[saltpoint]

20. Yes. Let's force him to defend them and force him also to

spend like a drunken sailor in all of them.

I think we take Ohio. Indiana? I'm less sure, but it sure would be nice.

Strongly agree on Virginia, Colorado, and New Mexico also.

[bornskeptic]

42. Obama should win Nevada easily.

I think it's his most likely pickup, other than Iowa and New Mexico. Kerry only lost Nevada by 2.6%. Gore only lost in Nevada by 3.5% with Nader drawing off 2.5%, and Clinton won there twice. Now the economy is in the tank, gas is $4.00 a gallon, and Nevada has probably been hit as hard as any state by the mortgage crisis, with all the new home sales in Las Vegas in the past two decades. I'll be shocked if Obama can't improve on Kerry's performance by 3%.

[malik flavors]

17. I think he'll get OH, NM, CO, and possibly VA. The other 3 are less likely.

[usregimechange]

23. Don't forget our most likely pickup, IA.

[saltpoint]

26. Agree. Iowa went missing in 04. I'm homesick to see it shaded in

blue on the election map and I'll be looking forward to it.

Just hurts my feelings when it went red & I want it back to blue.

[Condem]

29. I guarantee it, Crusoe.

[saltpoint]

36. "We'll meet on edges soon," said I, "proud 'neath fevered brow..."

To your predition, Condem, I say nine thousand loud hurrays.

Let's put the whoosh of a prairie wind through the thinning clothes of John McCain in the Hawkeye State.

[jesus_of_suburbia]

25. I agree that we have a chance for all of them.

And FL is a slight possibility.

[AtomicKitten]

37. Obama has really opened up the electoral map.

This election is going to be an E ticket ride.

[saltpoint]

38. Yes. I love the idea of a 50-state full-court press on the Pukes,

and it looks as if Obama is going to be formidable in districts the GOP has heretofore coasted through on.

There's a new game in town and their uniforms are blue.

[TexasObserver]

41. Yep. I have Obama winning Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, Montana & Nevada.

Ohio and Indiana, still not sure.

[AwakeAtLast]

43. I say Indiana has a great chance to go Blue this fall!

:bounce: :bounce:

[Capt. America]

44. Please stop smoking weed...Indiana?

[VADem11]

45. Yes, Indiana

It is up for grabs. If it wasn't, I don't think Obama would be spending money there.

[AwakeAtLast]

54. Lotta good weed in IN, but I'm not smokin' it

I have seen more Obama signs in the past month than I've seen McLame signs in 6 months. There is definitely more buzz about Obama than McLame.

[saltpoint]

49. Still a tough call, but right now Obama leads in one poll within the

margin of error.

The gubernatorial race is sparking considerable motivation for a lot of Democrats to show up, too. Incumbent Puke Mitch Daniels is not all that popular.

But it's within striking distance, yes.

[darius15]

46. Kerry States + CO, NM, IA

is my choice. But he has tons of options.

[snowbear]

51. Love the new "Job Killing John" ad they're running in Ohio and Pennsylvania..

I think the ad just started yesterday..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VYLZ9NUMRNA <--- "JOB KILLING JOHN"

And kudos to the AFLCIO who will be assisting in Ohio to expose mr. mclame's campaign manager!

McCain Tied to Job-Killing Ohio Merger

by Seth Michaels

In southwestern Ohio, working families are nervous about the likely loss of 8,000 jobs if a major shipping company stops using the Wilmington airport as a hub.



The pattern is familiar, but the pain isn’t abstract for Ohio families. The potential job loss is the result of a chain of events driven by corporate greed—and back-room lobbying deals supported by Sen. John McCain.



DHL was purchased by the German company Deutsche Post in 2002, and within a year the company merged with Airborne Express, a delivery company based in Wilmington. Now, DHL has announced plans to stop using the airport and outsource all deliveries elsewhere. This would devastate the economy of the small town of Wilmington, leaving more than 8,000 people out of work.



McCain, an adherent of Bush-style economic and trade policies, is closely tied to this potential disaster, as is McCain’s campaign manager, Rick Davis.

In 2003, Davis was a high-priced lobbyist who pushed the Senate to approve the DHL-Airborne Express merger. McCain was one of his strongest allies on Capitol Hill in pursuing the merger and, as chairman of the Senate Commerce Committee at the time, had a key role in blocking legislation that could have prevented the merger. Davis, meanwhile, has raked in hundreds of thousands of dollars from Deutsche Post, both before and after the merger.

Joe Rugola, president of the Ohio AFL-CIO, says McCain’s actions demonstrate he is part of the problem when it comes to protecting America’s jobs.

Continued: http://blog.aflcio.org/2008/08/07/mccain-tied-to-job-killing-ohio-merger

[saltpoint]

52. Yessirreebob.

The Obama team will not be conceding Ohio to John McCain.

I think it would be a hoot to eavesdrop on a McCain Ohio team meeting in which they discuss the fierce groundgame and this ad.

And here's a FWIW prediction: Barack Obama wins Ohio by a comfortable margin in November.