Sometimes it is better to be lucky than good

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

Something that's gone largely un-noted lately is that if this election were decided on the terms so many hoped for we would get beat.

Obama romps over McCain on every meaningful issue except Iraq. In every issues poll lately McCain leads on Iraq and terrorism, and nothing else. (I do not consider terrorism a meaningful issue in the way it's meant in polls.)

How could a candidates' only good issue be staying in Iraq? It seems a total reversal of all common sense.

Well, welcome to America! :patriot: :hi: :patriot:

The whipsaw from 2006 is striking. Everyone still thinks it was a mistake to invade Iraq, but it is now an older mistake. The public is not so disgusted with Iraq, not in any particular greater hurry to leave (though two years have passed), and trusts McCain more to handle Iraq.

Fortunately, 2008 will not be a referendum on Iraq and the public is plenty disgusted with everything else. Obama will win handily despite Iraq, not because of it. That is frustrating, but a lot better than the alternative.

One of the biggest differences between swing voters and partisans is that partisans have long memories while swing-voters are kind of oblivious to the past. They are reliably unconcerned with who was right. This has been a problem for Dems for ages because we tend to think accademically, where positions are tested and argued and there are right answers.

Always remember that Jimmy Carter very nearly lost in 1976 running against the guy who had just pardoned Nixon. Short, short memories.

I laid out why this would be the case ages ago... why it was a political mistake for Edwards to apologize for the IWR and why nobody outside the net-left and op-ed pages would ultimately give a hoot about Obama's superior judgment on the issue.

People en masse are not logical, and quite capable of simultaneously thinking Iraq was a terrible mistake while distrusting those who were against it. When the herd is doing the voting having gone against the herd is considered a bug, not a feature. Having been right on Iraq is seen, outside the left, as an unattractive know-it-all position, even to some people who currently despise the Iraq war.

To swing voters judgement is nice but loyalty is better. "A real American would have done the wrong thing because making a grotesque error was the American thing to do at the time."

People do not despise Bush for starting the Iraq War. They despise Bush for LOSING the Iraq War. The public didn't give up on the war in mid-2003 when it became obvious it was all a lie, but in 2005 when it became obvious we had lost. (That we looked weaker than we had before the war.)

Remember the ticker-tape parade for Scott Ritter? Me neither. He was the only guy on TV before to war who was 100% right, and look where it got him.

This isn't new. In the 1950s some Americans were black-listed for having opposed Hitler in the 1930s... the dreaded "premature anti-fascism" of the red hunt era.


Moral of the story: Be careful what you wish for, and stay flexible.

[GeorgeGist]

1. Ignorance is bliss until ...

you get caught.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

2. TIME poll: Obama 46% to 41%, but McCain 51%-36% on Iraq

The poll shows that voters have increased their faith in McCain's ability to manage the Iraq war, favoring him over Obama by a margin of 51%-36%, a five point jump since June.

http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1829948,00.html