The Daily Widget – Wednesday, Aug 6 – Obama 340, McCain 198 – High-Low Update

[phrigndumass]

Contents:
1. Tidbits
2. Widgets
3. New State Polls
4. Daily Tracking – Electoral Votes
5. Daily Tracking – Wigand Electoral Average
6. Daily Tracking – Popular Vote and Swing States Trading
7. Electoral College Map and State Chart
8. Links, Definitions and Sources


* * * * * * *


1. TIDBITS – High-Low Update

Just the high and low stats, since May 19, 2008. I’ll let you draw your own conclusions. :D

Phrig Electoral Vote Projection for Obama:
High – 402 (7/13)
Low – 273 (5/22)
Now – 340

Phrig Popular Vote Projection for Obama (Undecideds Same as Swing):
High – 65,740,000 (51.9%) (6/27)
Low – 61,540,000 (48.5%) (5/26)
Now – 62,580,000 (49.4%)

Electoral Vote for Obama – FiveThirtyEight.com:
High – 344.8 (6/26)
Low – 266.2 (5/19)
Now – 293.4

Electoral Vote for Obama – Electoral-Vote.com:
High – 344 (6/19)
Low – 242 (5/19)
Now – 289

Real Clear Politics National Poll Average for Obama:
High – 48.7 (7/7)
Low – 45.8 (5/30, 7/20, 7/23)
Now – 47.3

Intrade Trading Score for Obama:
High – 68.0 (7/15)
Low – 53.2 (5/31)
Now – 59.8

Rasmussen Markets Trading Score for Obama:
High – 69.0 (7/20, 7/22)
Low – 61.5 (5/21, 5/31)
Now – 62.5

All National Polls for Obama:
High – 51.0 (CBS, ABC, CNN, Newsweek)
Low – 41.0 (Fox)
Now Average – 47.0

All National Polls for McCain:
High – 49.0 (USA Today/Gallup)
Low – 36.0 (Newsweek)
Now Average – 42.8


* * * * * * *


2. WIDGETS



^ FIGURE 2a. This is what we refer to as the “Widget”. In the white section, it shows Obama’s and McCain’s electoral vote projection from three different sources. 270 would be a majority. In the yellow section, it shows three sources of trading and averages for the candidates. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. Intrade shows the trading, while RCP-av shows the aggregate average of all the state polls. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states.



^ FIGURE 2b. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.


* * * * * * *


3. NEW STATE POLLS

A new Elway Poll for Washington shows Obama leading by 12 there. A Strategic Vision poll for Washington last week also showed Obama with an 11 point lead. Washington should be an easy win for Obama this year.


Washington Obama 47, McCain 35 (Elway Poll, 7/31, +/- 5.0, 405 RV)


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


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4. DAILY TRACKING – ELECTORAL VOTES



^ FIGURE 4a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 4b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)


* * * * * * *


5. DAILY TRACKING – WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 5a. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above (second chart from the top). To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 5b. Wigand vs. National Polls, RCP Average and Trading. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average), as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).


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6. DAILY TRACKING – POPULAR VOTE AND SWING STATES TRADING



^ FIGURE 6a. I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.


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7. ELECTORAL COLLEGE MAP AND STATE CHART








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8. LINKS, DEFINITIONS AND SOURCES


Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls

What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

As always, I’m open to your feedback and suggestions, and I will be happy to explain anything!

Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.

Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du


(on edit: Corrected Intrade low score)

[tekisui]

1. I'll take it!

I liked the way Obama came out swinging yesterday. His numbers should improve, although he still looks very good.

[phrigndumass]

3. Obama may have lost his July gains, but he had huge gains in June as well :)

Agreed, his numbers should improve ... it's just a brief valley.

Both Obama and Paris came out swinging yesterday, lol!

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[JeffR]

2. As always, impressive and very valuable work.

:toast:

[phrigndumass]

4. Thanks Jeff

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

5. I'm with Tek, I'll take it

When you see the numbers laid out like that, it just isn't that bad.

How are you today? We can actually see floor in the new place! If I never see a cardboard box again it will be too soon. :)

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

6. Cardboard boxes make great furniture :)

Simply throw a Patriots blanket over it and voila! Coffee table. :D

Even the chart from yesterday isn't that bad. Obama's strong-state lead is still over 50.

:donut: Good morning! :hi: :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

7. You are right about the chart from yesterday.

I was just disappointed to see another state up here turn light blue, but I don't think for a minute that any of us will go for McCain in November. No way!

Now I am whispering, cause I'm in Pats territory, but I'm a Giants fan. I'm from NY remember. ;-) I won't even tell you who I like for baseball or I might get hurt.

[phrigndumass]

8. LOL! I'll keep your secret

You can use the Patriots blanket to sop up the coffee spills, lol

[phrigndumass]

9. Off to work kick

:kick: Have a good day

[phrigndumass]

11. .

:kick:

[JeffR]

10. Kick.

Can I get a rec and an amen here?