PA POLL: Obama 47 (+1), McCain 42 (unchanged). W/ Leaners - Obama 51, McCain 45

[jefferson_dem]

Pennsylvania: Obama Inches Further Ahead
Thursday, July 24, 2008

Barack Obama’s lead over John McCain has now stretched to five percentage points in Pennsylvania. In April, McCain had a statistically insignificant lead, but the Democratic candidate has been slowly moving ahead since then.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds Obama out front 47% to 42%. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 51% to 45%. Last month, Obama led 46% to 42% after holding just a two-point lead the month before.

McCain holds a 40% to 38% edge among unaffiliated voters in the state his month. Obama leads 45% to 41% among men and 50% to 43% among women.

Obama is viewed favorably by 58% of voters in Pennsylvania, which has not changed since last month. McCain is viewed favorably by 61%, up from 57% last month.

Rasmussen Markets shows that Democrats are currently given a 79.9 % chance of winning Pennsylvania’s twenty-one Electoral College Votes this fall.

John Kerry won the state for the Democrats in 2004 by a 51% to 48% margin over President Bush. Four years earlier, Al Gore carried the state by four percentage points. Immediately prior to release of this poll, Pennsylvania was rated as “Leans Democrat” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/pennsylvania/election_2008_pennsylvania_presidential_election2

[MellowDem]

1. I think PA is safe this election

Barring a major catastrophe for Obama, PA will be blue.

[woolldog]

2. His favorables are high in PA,

which is an excellent sign.

It's not in the bag though, especially if McCain picks Tom Ridge as VP.

[MellowDem]

5. Hadn't thought of the VP angle nt

[Drunken Irishman]

6. Ridge is pro-choice, no?

Won't happen if he is.

[woolldog]

7. McCain might flip on that.

or Ridge might fudge on being pro-choice. They're politicians. I wouldn't bank on their word.

Just like the prospect of raising 300+ million as opposed to 84 million in public financing for the general was too good for Obama to pass up. Ridge might be too good a VP choice strategically for McCain to pass up b/c of one issue, abortion.

[demosincebirth]

3. What are leaners?

[woolldog]

4. People who are leaning in one direction or the other,

but haven't made up their mind.

[demosincebirth]

8. Thanksl