Obama's Electoral Strength Factor Up Six Percent THIS WEEK! (Highest EV Strength YET)

[berni_mccoy]

Earlier this week, I introduce the Electoral Vote Strength Factor (http://journals.democraticunderground.com/berni_mccoy/398). This week has been very good to Obama with respect to Electoral Vote Strength. Obama is now at his strongest standing ever with Electoral Votes with a Strength Factor of 92% (previous high was 90% on June 19th. He started the week of at 86%.

McCain struggles to stay above 50% strength, as that is where he is now and started the week at (he never rose above 51% this week). McCain's lowest EV Strength Factor was 46% from Jun 27 through Jun 29. McCain's highest EV Strength Factor was 69% from Jun 10 through Jun 12.

I'll continue to report the EV Strength of each candidate on a weekly basis (unless Phrigin wants to roll this into his daily widget).

[grantcart]

1. it looks like a trend doesn't it - very useful Berni

[berni_mccoy]

2. I believe it is more accurate than a national poll... it's generalizing strength of opposition

from local results into a single nationwide factor. Yes there are other metrics that do similar, but I believe this one shows how strong a position each candidate has. Of course, I would like more recent data... some of the state polls go all the way back to June...

[phrigndumass]

3. In my matrix code, I was seeing closer to 2:1 :)

Thanks for confirming it!

K/R :hi:

[berni_mccoy]

4. I've run the same algorithm on the 2004 election using data from EV.com

And Kerry *never* got above 1.25 in the ratio even though he had a significant EV lead... he had too many in the barely or weak category. I was shocked to see how Kerry had huge EV leads but never broke away in EV strength. It was very telling as to why he lost and very telling as to why Obama is doing so well.

I will be publishing those results over the weekend.

[Kdillard]

5. Thanks so much for this graph.

I too was shocked when I saw how much was weak for Kerry. You also saw that Bush still had a very strong base and when you view the strong Bush vs strong Kerry you could see how close it was and that Bush even held the advantage. In 2008 it is the opposite.

[phrigndumass]

6. Can't wait to see the Kerry strength results, it'll be a great comparison

This is for Kerry's position on July 12, 2004. It's for one day only, so I'll love seeing how his strength tracked over time.



:hi: