This Election Model update includes 33 state polls just released by Zogby. It appears that an Obama landslide is in the making. He now has 54.7% of the two-party vote. Assuming he wins 54.7% of the undecided vote, the 5000 election trial simulation produced an average of 390 (expected) electoral votes.
The model’s base case (most-likely) scenario projects that he will win 60% of the undecided vote and win 420 EV with 55.6% of the two-party vote. With 50% of the undecided vote (the pessimistic scenario), he still has 363 EV and a 53.9% share.
The other critical assumptions are that the election is held today and fraud-free.
Why the big jump in Obama’s expected EV?
He is projected to win these big red states (94 EV): AZ, IN, MO, NC*, TX, VA*
A total of 14 states flip to Obama from 2004, all the above and AR, CO, IA*, MT, NV, NM*, OH*, SC
Note: * indicates Obama is projected at 54% or more (2-party).
Zogby was actually correct in 2004 when he projected that Kerry would win; but he won the
True vote and lost the rigged
Recorded vote. Election forecasters and complicit media pundits who projected that Bush won refuse to consider the overwhelming evidence that the election was stolen. The media incessantly catapults the false propaganda that Bush won legitimately.
Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes conventional wisdom. But that’s to be expected. Although the media commissioned the exit polls which indicated that Kerry won by 5%, they don’t question the mathematically impossible Final Exit Poll which was forced to match a corrupt vote count. Bush won the corrupt Recorded vote but lost the True vote. Past is Prologue. It would be foolish to assume a fraud-free election.
That’s why the Election Model now includes a fraud scenario analysis. Even assuming that 4% of total votes cast will be uncounted, McCain would need at least 10% of Obama’s votes switched to his column to win. In 2004 approximately 3% of all votes cast were uncounted. Bush stole 8.0% of Kerry’s votes (analysis below) to obtain his 3.0 million vote “mandate”.
These graphs display the effects of uncounted and switched votes on Obama's projected EV and 2-party vote share.
?click">Effect of uncounted and switched votes on the projected vote share?click">Effect of uncounted and switched votes on the electoral voteThis is a summary of where things stand today:
Undecided voter allocation (UVA) sensitivity analysis
UVA % scenarios 50 55 60 65 70 to Obama
Worst case (50%)
53.9%, 363 EV, 100% EV win probability
Best case (70%)
57.4%, 467 EV, 100% EV win probability
In a true democracy, this would be a slam dunk for Obama:McCain supports the most unpopular president in history with 25% approval.But there’s a catch: It’s called
Election Fraud.
The Democratic True Vote is always greater than the Recorded Vote.A massive voter registration and GOTV effort is required to overcome the fraud.- Approximately 3–4 million Obama votes will be uncounted.
The Election Model has been updated to include two key fraud variable factors:
uncounted votes (net of votes padded) and
switched votes. Historical evidence shows that over 75% of uncounted ballots are found in heavily Democratic minority precincts.
These critical factors are never included in election forecasting models which permeate the media and the internet. In fact, there is no mention of fraud from professional pollsters, political forecasters in academia, media pundits or liberal bloggers on their web sites. But it’s understandable. No one wants to bite the hand that feeds them. Why should any of these interested parties discuss fraud when Democratic politicians won’t? Unlike impeachment, the dirty little secret of election fraud has always been off the table in Congress.
The base case projection assumes zero fraud. But if 4% of total votes cast are uncounted, McCain would need at least 10% of Obama’s votes switched to his column in order to win. This could be done by rigging strategically selected touch screens, optical scanners, punched cards and central tabulators. Is it just a coincidence that Karl Rove is advising McCain?
The Election Model calculates projected vote shares and the electoral vote over a range of 36 uncounted and switched vote scenarios. The scenarios range from the True Vote (zero votes uncounted, zero switched) to Massive Fraud (5%, 10%). For simplicity, the model assumes that the scenarios apply equally in each state- an admittedly an unrealistic assumption. But it provides a good approximation to the resulting EV and popular vote.
In 2004, Bush won by an official 3.0m vote margin (
62 – 59m). The official recorded vote was 122.3m. According to the 2004 Census,
125.7m votes were cast. Therefore, approximately 3.4m votes (2.74%) were uncounted. Historical evidence shows that the vast majority (75%) of uncounted ballots are found in heavily Democratic minority precincts. Including uncounted votes, the Bush margin is reduced to 1.4m (62.9-61.5m). The companion post-election
Election Calculator Model (see below) determined that Kerry won by 66.9 – 57.1m. After adjusting for uncounted votes, the model determined that 5.4m (8.0%) Kerry votes must have been switched to Bush. Note that in Florida, Ohio and several other states, total votes recorded exceeded votes cast (vote padding exceeded vote suppression). Most states had more vote suppression than vote padding; the net difference was the number of uncounted votes.
Vote counts on
touch screens are lost in cyberspace.
States using
mechanical levers (
NY, CT, etc.) had the
highest error rates: gears can be shaved; votes are unverifiable.
Optical scanners (
FL, PA, NH, etc.) have a paper trail, but they are never fully inspected for recounts.
The chain of custody is often broken (see the
NH primary).
And if all else fails, central tabulators can finish the job by miscounting the votes.
A simple solution would be for each precinct to install just ONE PC and spreadsheet software.
Voters would fill out a paper ballot uniquely coded by precinct/voter ID.
A copy is made available to the voter.
The ballot is entered into the spreadsheet and cross-checked by three volunteers (Dem, Rep, Ind).
The precinct spreadsheet file is uploaded to the internet for public access.
Precinct files are consolidated for district, county and state totals.
The files would enable each voter to confirm his vote online by entering his unique voter ID code.
A spreadsheet user could download all the state precinct files to check the totals.
The networks would no longer be the source of incoming, fraudulent votes.
Exit polls would match the online totals to within 1%.
The solution is inexpensive, accurate and would serve the public interest.
That is why it will never be implemented. There is no money in it.
The voting machine manufacturers and corrupt election officials would fight it all the way.
And of course, Congress would never do a cost/benefit analysis.The 2008 Election CalculatorThis model projects that
Obama will win the True Vote by 71 – 59m (54 - 45%).
Basic input consists of the 2004 recorded vote, mortality, uncounted votes and 2004 voter turnout in 2008.
The
True Vote is calculated by applying vote shares to returning 2004 and new voters.
2008 True Vote Election Calculator Forecast
Estimated vote share (see National Exit Poll)
2004 Turnout Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV - 17.2 13.1% 59% 40% 1%
Kerry 95% 60.5 46.2% 89% 10% 1%
Bush 95% 51.6 39.4% 11% 88% 1%
Other 95% 1.6 1.2% 70% 11% 19%
Total 113.7 130.9 100.0% 54.1% 44.7% 1.2%
130.9 70.8 58.5 1.6
The
model produced a startling confirmation of the state and national models.
- In the base case scenario, Kerry was assumed to win 75% of the undecided vote.
- The Monte Carlo simulation determined that he would win 337 electoral votes.
- Both models projected Kerry the winner with 51.8% of the two-party vote.
The final 5 national poll average projection was 51.8%.
The final 18national poll average projection was 51.6%.
The Election Model projections were based on state and national Pre-election polls.
- Kerry’s projected vote share was within 2.0% of his exit poll share in 23 states.
- The 12:22am Preliminary National Exit Poll indicated that Kerry won by 51 – 48%..
Exit Pollsters
Edison-Mitofsky released their 2004 Evaluation report in Jan. 2005.
- E-M discussed polling methodology and provided summary statistics by state, region and voting method.
- Within Precinct Error (WPE) is the average deviation between unadjusted exit poll and recorded vote.
It is more appropriate to call it Within Precinct Discrepancy (WPD).
Kerry won the unadjusted (WPD) aggregate state exit poll by 52.0 – 47.0% (average of three measures). Recorded Vote Unadjusted Exit Poll
EV Kerry Bush Margin KEV Kerry Bush Margin KEV WFD
WtdAv TOTAL 48.27 50.73 (2.46) 251 51.95 47.05 4.91 337 7.37
The state exit poll WPD:
- exceeded 4% in 34 states for Bush and just 2 for Kerry.
- was less than 2% in 8 heavily Republican states (AR, ID, IN, KS, KY, MT, OK and TN).
- was less than 2% in just one Democratic state (OR).
Oregon is the only state which votes exclusively by paper ballot.
The
1:25pm FINAL National Exit Poll indicated that Kerry lost by
48 –
51%. used
12:22am NEP vote shares applied to returning and new voters.
It determined that Kerry won a 67–57 million landslide, 53.2 - 45.4%.
2004 Calculated True Vote
12:22am NEP vote share
2000 Turnout Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV - 25.6 20.4% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 95% 49.7 39.5% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 95% 46.6 37.1% 10% 90% 0%
Other 95% 3.8 3.0% 64% 17% 19%
Total 100.1 125.7 100% 53.2% 45.4% 1.4%
Votes cast 125.7 66.9 57.1 1.7
Recorded Vote (actual) 122.3 59.0 62.0 1.2
48.3% 50.7% 1.0%
Unadjusted Exit Poll 51.9% 47.1% 1.0%
Deviation from True Vote -1.3% +1.7% -0.4%
Two basic methods are used to forecast presidential elections:
- Vote share projections based on the latest state and national polls
In the Election Model, state and national projections are based on the latest polls.
Both state and national models allocate undecided voters to project the two-party vote.
The state model uses Monte Carlo simulation to determine the expected electoral vote.
The Election Model assumes the election is held on the latest poll date.
- Projections based on historical time-series data (regression models).
These models forecast vote-share only and are usually executed months in advance of the election.
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Overview
The objective is to calculate the expected electoral vote and win probability.
The win probability for each state is calculated based on the current projection.
For each of 5000 election trials, the winner of a state is determined as follows:
Obama's state win probability is compared to a random number (RND) between zero and one.
If the probability is less than RND, Obama wins the state EV, else McCain.
The winner of the election trial is the candidate who has at least 270 electoral votes.
The EV win probability is simply the number of winning election trials divided by 5000.
2004 Registered Voter (RV) vs. Likely Voter (LV) PollsThe national pre-election RV polls were closer to the True Vote than likely voter LV polls.
The LV polls, after adjustments, matched the RVs — and the unadjusted exit polls.
Other links:
Latest
2008 Election ModelConfirmation of A Kerry LandslideElection Fraud Analytics and Response to the TruthIsAll FAQExcel Models available for download:
The Election Calculator: 1988-20042004 Interactive Simulation ModelA Polling Simulation Model2000-2004 County Vote Database
Aggregate State and National Polls and Projections
Undecided-Voter allocation effect on projected vote share, EV and win probability
THE 2008 ELECTION MODEL
This
State
National
State
National
Monte Carlo
Simulation
Update
Poll
5-poll
2-party
2-party
Expected
7/9/2008
Wtd Avg
Average
Projection
Projection
Electoral Vote
Obama
45.17
48.00
55.63
52.68
420
McCain
37.4
44.2
44.37
47.32
118
Sensitivity Analysis
Undecided voter allocation scenario
Obama
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
State model: Projected aggregate vote share
Obama
53.88
54.76
55.63
56.5
57.37
McCain
46.12
45.24
44.37
41.5
42.63
MoE Probability Obama wins popular vote (NORMDIST)
2.00%
100
100
100
100
100
3.00%
99.4
99.9
99.99
100
100
Monte Carlo Probability Obama wins electoral vote
Trial Wins
5000
5000
5000
5000
5000
Probability
100
100
100
100
100
Obama Electoral Vote
Average
363
392
420
445
467
Median
361
391
420
446
470
Maximum
453
477
489
501
518
Minimum
299
316
340
1.5
382
95% Confidence Limits
Upper
409
441
470
491
507
Lower
318
342
370
399
427
States Won
31
33
34
39
41
2008 POLLING ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS State Model
State Polls Pre-Undecided Voter Allocation
Projection
Win
Trial
Total
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DC
DE
FL
GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
EV
538
9
3
10
6
55
9
7
3
3
27
15
4
4
21
11
7
6
8
9
4
10
12
17
10
6
11
3
5
5
4
15
5
31
15
3
20
7
7
21
4
8
3
11
34
5
3
13
11
5
10
3
Obama
45.2 %
36
41
42
41
52
40
48
90
50
39
38
61
39
52
39
42
37
39
40
55
54
54
47
48
44
42
48
36
38
40
49
49
51
47
38
43
37
49
46
55
42
34
36
39
31
63
44
48
37
48
40
McCain
37.4 %
47
45
39
39
32
38
32
9
41
43
44
31
52
32
40
38
47
44
47
33
30
29
33
32
50
40
43
52
38
37
36
33
30
38
44
38
42
33
36
31
41
51
41
42
55
29
39
35
45
38
53
Diff
7.8 %
(11)
(4)
3
2
20
2
16
81
9
(4)
(6)
30
(13)
20
(1)
4
(10)
(5)
(7)
22
24
25
14
16
(6)
2
5
(16)
0
3
13
16
21
9
(6)
5
(5)
16
10
24
1
(17)
(5)
(3)
(24)
34
5
13
(8)
10
(13)
BO EV
359
10
6
55
9
7
3
3
4
21
7
4
10
12
17
10
11
3
4
15
5
31
15
20
7
21
4
8
3
13
11
10
Obama
55.7 %
46.2
49.4
53.4
53.0
61.6
53.2
60.0
55.4
90.6
49.8
48.8
65.8
44.4
61.6
51.6
54.0
46.6
49.2
47.8
62.2
63.6
64.2
59.0
60.0
47.6
52.8
53.4
43.2
52.4
53.8
58.0
59.8
62.4
56.0
48.8
54.4
49.6
59.8
56.8
63.4
52.2
43.0
49.8
50.4
39.4
67.8
54.2
58.2
47.8
56.4
44.2
Probability
100.0 %
2.9
38.2
95.5
93.3
100.0
94.5
100.0
99.7
100.0
46.0
27.4
100.0
0.3
100.0
78.8
97.7
4.5
34.5
13.6
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
11.5
91.9
95.5
0.0
88.5
97.1
100.0
100.0
100.0
99.9
27.4
98.6
42.1
100.0
100.0
100.0
86.4
0.0
46.0
57.9
0.0
100.0
98.2
100.0
13.6
99.9
0.2
EV
420
10
6
55
9
7
3
3
4
21
11
7
4
10
12
17
10
11
3
5
4
15
5
31
15
20
7
21
4
8
34
3
13
11
10
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