Western states may swing: In-depth look at Nevada and Montana

[DeepModem Mom]

Politico: Western states may swing
By: Karen E. Crummy - The Denver Post
June 30, 2008

One-third of Colorado registered voters are not affiliated with a political party. In New Mexico, Democrats outnumber Republicans by nearly 200,000, yet the state routinely votes for the GOP presidential candidate. Montana voters don’t even register with a party. Brimming with individualistic, self-reliant, libertarian-leaning voters, the Rocky Mountain West will play a pivotal role in a year when independent voters are expected to make or break John McCain’s and Barack Obama’s presidential bids.

Voters here in recent elections have backed individual candidates regardless of political affiliation and have responded to messages emphasizing economic populism, fiscal discipline and the balance between individual rights and governmental protections. Already, McCain is emphasizing his 22 years as a Western senator sensitive to the region’s issues and personality, and touting his record of standing up to both political parties. Obama is portraying himself as a reformer, someone who won’t engage in Washington-style politics and is committed to taking the country in a better direction....

***

Here’s the first half of an in-depth look at four states that could prove pivotal in determining our next president. Nevada and Montana are below, and Monday will bring a closer look at Colorado and New Mexico.

NEVADA

The political playbook for winning Nevada seems simple on its face. Democrat Barack Obama must cash in on the huge increase in registered Democratic voters and win big in population-rich Clark County, home to Las Vegas. Republican John McCain needs to work the middle, portraying himself as a centrist to stay close to Obama in Clark County and then seal the base in the rural areas of the state, which tend to vote Republican....

***

MONTANA

In Montana, where "opening day" refers to the beginning of hunting season rather than baseball, a candidate's political survival usually hinges on one issue: guns....

http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=D51FC968-3048-5C12-0040648E5E7F951F

[Abacus]

1. I have Montana as the third most likely state to flip,

right behind Indiana and Missouri. I'm currently projecting a 308 - 230 Obama win.

[DeepModem Mom]

2. Good news! Thanks for your analysis, Abacus. nt

[book_worm]

4. I think Iowa and New Mexico (both Bush states in '04 narrowly) are more likely to be the top two

than Indiana and Missouri. I would rank Virginia as the third most likely to switch.

[Abacus]

10. I have all three of those (IA, NM, VA) for Obama

I have Iowa and New Mexico ranked 10th & 11th for "swingyness", behind Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Nevada, Alaska, & North Carolina.

[phrigndumass]

3. Good info on these states, DMM :)

North Dakota may follow suit as well. New Mexico and Colorado look lonely in the West in this map. Obama's 50 state strategy appears to be working, but we need to work hard to make it happen in November, when it counts!

[DeepModem Mom]

6. Thanks, phrigndumass! I'm really glad we embarked on the 50-state strategy.

It's bold, for one thing, and it takes the long-view, with an eye toward the future. And, as you say, if we work hard enough, it might pay off bigtime.

[John Q. Citizen]

5. The articles author has a few facts wrong. For one thing the Dems in MT hold a primary, not a caucus

For another thing, while a lot of people do like to hunt, a lot of people don't like to hunt. But almost nobody cares if someone else likes to hunt.We all want our friends to bring us some venison or elk.

Also, the key to winning Montana for Statewide Democrats is to win really big in the western cities and to not lose too big in the sparsely populated east.

My advice to Obama is to talk about guns, a lot. Don't pretend he's a hunter or a sharp shooter but ask ques6tions about guns.Ask folks to take him shooting and to teach him. That would go a long way politically here.

Secondly he should endorse Montana farmers right to grow industrial hemp. The Repos passed it into state law, but the Feds won't let farmers grow it. He should make clear that in states who pass medical marijuana, people aren't going to be interfered with by the Feds. MMJ passed here on initiative in 2004 by almost 2 to 1. That would go along way to attracting independents and Dems alike.

[DeepModem Mom]

7. Thanks for your on-the-ground view, John Q.! Sounds like valuable advice, too. nt

[fishwax]

8. I think Obama could win all four of those states

What a treat that would be to see :woohoo:

[MarjorieG]

9. Understand Obama's language and policy emphasis with Western in mind.