The Daily Widget – Tuesday, June 17 – Obama 303-235

[phrigndumass]

Oy, what a mess! The good, the bad, and the ugly ...

One good part of today's widget is the 7.10 jump in total trading for our 12 swing states. The total trading is now at 629.00, or 29.00 above the majority, the highest it has ever been. Also good is the fact that McCain's poll averages have fallen below 42% (RCP) for the first time. Another good is that Obama continues to lead in Virginia with a new poll released by Rasmussen.

Now the bad. A new Rasmussen poll in Kansas shows McCain leading by 10 there. He had led by only 4 in the last poll, and Kansas was within the margin of error. Kansas returns to the solid republican column today. Also bad is the fact that Obama's probables total has slipped back a bit since yesterday, and so has his potentials total. Another bad is that the undecideds nationwide are beginning to creep over 12% overall in the polls.

Oh, it gets ugly. Both the Virginia and Kansas polls have higher-than-expected undecideds, thus making our strength of projection weaker. Couple that with Obama's decrease in probables and decrease in potentials, and my electoral vote projection falls from 316 for Obama yesterday to 303 for Obama today. Could this be the beginning of a trend downwards?








Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH


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TRACKING



^ Is it a lesson on how to tie a knot, or are the cats playing with the strings again? EV.com's projection becomes the most optimistic today, and my projection begins to drop back.



^ Even as polls for Virginia and Kansas mix things up, our Wigand Electoral Average stands steadfast, predicting an Obama win.



^ Here's the good news of the day. The total tracking for our 12 swing states jumps 7.10 today, thanks to bluer trading of South Carolina and Indiana.



^ People with real money (Intrade) continue to remain less optimistic than people with Monopoly money (Rasmussen).


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^ PLEASE NOTE: This map is not a prediction.
It is a map of the states which are currently
either polling or trading blue. :D


Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls


Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du

What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

.

[MrModerate]

1. Take a deep breath. It's June fercrissakes!

I appreciate the effort you've put into this analysis (much more patience and research doggedness than I could ever display). But c'mon: Obama and McCain haven't even seriously engaged yet. When they do, McCain will look worse and worse.

And putting on my Nostradamus cap here (or perhaps my Karnak the Magnificent), Bush is guaranteed to continue making a huge ass of himself on a larger and larger canvas. The bad policies of the last 8 years, already bearing bitter fruit, will continue to ripen. 'Licans will go on behaving like bullies, boors, and boobs, further alienating the electorate.

And while they still own the voting machines, that's about all they've got to offer the American people.

You're trying to predict an earthquake here, and the tools we've got (you've got) just aren't up to the task.

[phrigndumass]

2. I remind myself that as undecideds increase, McCain's numbers drop

That alone tells me that people who thought about supporting McCain are willing to take a look at what Obama has to offer. Let the engaging begin!

I don't see an earthquake, just a dip in the projections coming. Or maybe just a pothole, lol ...

:hi:

[MrModerate]

4. Hey, even a pothole . . .

can make you spill your coffee all over your pants. I'm predicting (predicting again, i.e., making it up as I go along) that the 'Licans will be lining up at dry cleaners across the country in early November.

And yes, I have to believe that the more one sees of John McCain, the less attractive he looks. I'm hardly a dispassionate/disinterested observer, but he's looking really really bad. And as the 'Licans are already going negative while Obama is still inspiring and upbeat, they just look meaner and more out of touch every day.

[phrigndumass]

8. Well, I'm feeling less pessimistic now, thanks!

Do they make elephant pooper-scoopers? Someone could make a killing with those this year. :D

[grantcart]

13. I think you misunderstand the point of the OP

The point is not to predict what is going to happen in November.

It has three specific functions:

1) To create a realistic snapshot of electoral college strength and weakness, in the same way that Dow Jones Industrial Average gives daily snapshots of the stock market but not a prediction of where it will be on November 4th.

2) Using that on a daily basis create a linear point of reference where movement can be tracked.

3) Focus on which regions and which states are truly swing states and track their movement.

So far the movement in the polls have shown that the basic premise of the 'daily math' that the swing areas have moved to new areas has been confirmed.

The statistical tools used do meet industry standards and the combination of polls and intrade make it, in my opinion, the best daily indicator of electoral vote projection anywhere. The author is a trained professional in the field and the immaginative combination of metrics and how they have been weighted make it a very valuable tool. It is unfortunate that it doesn't get wider distribution and readership.

[phrigndumass]

16. Not to blow my own horn, but ...

Sometimes I have to remind myself that I really trust the underlying methodology we have assembled here, so I should trust and have faith in the results. There has been a pothole in the tracking here and there, but the results did show a big bump on two occasions a couple days before the other indicators followed suit. It'll be interesting to see in a day or two if this was just another pothole or whether other indicators will follow.

Reduced Probables + Reduced Potentials + Weaker Projection Strength = Downward Trend

It's entirely reversible, but not until the equation changes.

Thanks for posting that, grantcart!

[MrModerate]

21. Maybe, maybe not . . .

I don't think the comparison to the Dow is apt, because stock prices represent a complex and continuing continuum, whereas this data represents a target date with a binary outcome: Obama or McCain.

An outcome which admittedly will have its own complex, broad, and no-doubt continuing implications.

The snapshot metaphor, on the other hand, strikes me as perfectly appropriate, and just the sort of thing I, for one, will be following closely over the next few months -- in an attempt to do exactly what the OP is doing: anticipate the eventual outcome. Regional data is also useful and I certainly expect the Obama campaign is parsing such data on a minute-by-minute basis.

My response was more to the OP's expression of dismay at a slippage in Obama-favorable data from one day to the next, some 4 and a half months out from November. I do think that our fascination with such analysis can lead us to think we know more than we actually do (that we can 'scientifically' predict more than we actually can).

Also, as I pointed out, I don't think this campaign has really been joined yet. When it is, the fur will fly. And I 'predict' that most of that fur will come off John McCain's hide.

[fight4my3sons]

3. Good morning!

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

6. Hiya fight!

:donut: Good morning back atcha! :hi:

[AlinPA]

5. Thank you again and again. This is very helpful. I love the cartoon, too. nt

[phrigndumass]

7. yw Al ... that cartoon reminds me of Wile E. Coyote, lol

McScrewed = Coyote
Obama = Roadrunner

All we need now is an anvil to drop on his head. Maybe he'd spit out the nuts he's storing in his cheeks then ...

:hi:

[me b zola]

12. lol, Wile E. Coyote is the first thing that came to mind

"Super-genius" kept ordering wacky traps from Acme when he could have ordered a pizza. Republican ideology often makes me think of Wile E. Coyote. Beep-beep :D

[phrigndumass]

14. "Super-genius" LOL

Stupor-genius? :rofl: (Nah, that would be Ralph Reed, boy wonder)

[mod mom]

9. Looking better all the time! Thank you.

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

10. Good morning, mod mom

Off to work, enjoy your day! :hi:

[phrigndumass]

11. Afternoon punt

:kick:

[grantcart]

15. kick

[dbmk]

17. A little kick

and a notice for phrig that a new version of the Wigand Assistant is online.

[phrigndumass]

18. Woohoo! Got it, thanks Dr. Data!

Works great! :bounce:

[myrna minx]

19. An evening K&R for those of us late to the party.

I don't think this is an overall trend. I think it's a little speed bump. It's still early in the season. We'll be back on track in no time. :hi:

[grantcart]

20. actually the numbers are ahead of what I would have guessed at this time

the national numbers are insignificant the EV are the only ones that count and they are getting better and better in most cases.