Virginia will go for Obama without Warner or Webb on the ticket

[Stinky The Clown]

Virginia is ripe to turn blue. It has been trending that way for a while now, the mouth breathers that inhabit parts of her notwithstanding.

And don't forget that, aside from the 31 day governorship of (biracial, not black) Pinckney Pinchback in Louisiana in 1972, Virginia elected the first black governor in the US in Doug Wilder in 1990.

Tidewater, Richmond and NoVa will turn it presidential blue this time. The first southern state to go Repubican (1964) will lead the south back to the Democrats.

[renegade000]

1. Now is certainly the time.

I feel optimistic, though it will be close. The key will be to get out the vote. In NoVa, that has always been the tactic of the grassroots Dem organizations. just try to maximize turnout on election day.

Know of any voter registration drives in NoVa?

[papapi]

2. Lived here all my life. This is my 10th Prez election. It's TIME!!!

[Carrieyazel]

3. Obama's well behind in Tidewater, according to recent polling.

If he only wins NoVa and the City of Richmond, that will not be enough. Obama has a real uphill battle to win in VA. Right now this state is McCain's to lose.

[FrenchieCat]

8. Could you provide a link instead of a black cloud?

Boy, I'll be glad when you are gone!

[muryan]

9. RCP avg of 1.3 behind

That gives him about 5% to gain on McCain before I would qualify at as a pretty strong chance to win, if not a lock. 5% is not a "real uphill" battle, its a matter of being able to stand on his own feet without democrats biting at his ankles from the primary.

[my3boyz]

10. Proof please! I live in Hampton Roads and there are are LOT

of people that are not going to vote Republican! This includes my husband's co-workers who are active duty Navy. I hope you are not saying that McCain will win because of the military presence.

[The_Casual_Observer]

4. As the state that used to be George Allen's private playground

that would be quite a turnaround wouldn't it?

[rusty quoin]

5. Can someone tell me does Cantor have a chance of losing? n/t

[Tim4319]

6. Being a graduate of Norfolk State Univeristy

I really hope Virginia does turn blue!

[FrenchieCat]

7. Obama Staffers Begin Appearing in Virginia.....

Source:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6326799&mesg_id=6326916

[11 Bravo]

11. I was born in Virginia and have lived here for most of my life and I don't share your optimism.

I HOPE you are correct, but the fact remains that once you get south of Fredericksburg, you're in fucking Mississippi all the way to Norfolk/Hampton Roads.

[Heather MC]

13. True I am from Lynchburg, but remember, we did elect the first black Gov!

If we can turn Jerry Falwell land
we can take the state!

[TZ]

16. You don't even have to go south of Fredericksburg to see that

My sister lives in Manassas. That part of NOVA is still very red.
I'm not optimistic about it going to Obama.

[kentuck]

12. But Warner will be on the ticket also...

And that should belp Obama even if Webb is not on the ticket, I would think?

[sfam]

15. Warner versus Gilmore will be a wipeout. That will help..

I cannot imagine that Republicans will be that motivated to turn out.

[Stinky The Clown]

20. Bingo

[sfam]

14. As a Virginian, I don't have nearly the confidence that you do...Remember Webb's election...

Here we had a blue dawg democrat, who BARELY eaked out a 5,000 vote victory against perhaps the worst Senatorial campaign of the last decade. To call Allen an empty suit gaffe machine is a huge understatement.

And yet Webb barely pulls an upset.


Lets face it, the reason the Dems have been winning statewide elections is because the Republican senate is so out of touch its silly. They could give a shit about Northern VA traffic hassles, which pretty much turns everyone in to a Dem around here. If you give us traffic funding, we vote for you. The right-wing southern VA dominated Senate has voiced their disdain for Northern VA, while turning southern VA (where there are sparse populations) into a highway mecca.

This doesn't necessarily translate into the GE though. While I agree that its possible for Obama to win, especially considering Gilmore is the Senate Repub nominee, he probably should consider one of the three if this is a high priority. Warner flat out wins the state for him - the other two will help.

EDIT: as a side note, this "Democratic Stronghold" that is Northern VA is hardly pure blue. I remember the SHOCK I received in 2004 when I put a Kerry sign in the yard. I actually had three neighbors stop by and tell me how brave I was.

And I live in Fairfax County, supposedly the Democratic bastion in Northern VA. I'm not saying it hasn't turned blue, but its hardly Washington DC in terms of Dem turnout.

[TZ]

17. True.

All the repukes have to do is use the magic word "taxes" and he'll be in trouble. Look at what happens when you folk try to get revenue raised for much needed roadwork.

[cbc5g]

19. George Allen was the Virginia RW's golden boy and he lost...thats big

He would be the Republican nominee for President right now if he won.

[Stinky The Clown]

21. I live in a Maryland version of Fairfax .... I know what you mean. But ......

..... the sentiment around here is so toxic for repubicans that I have a great deal of optimism. I know lots of people in Fairfax ...... its pretty much the same down there.

I think Warner will bring out the vote for Obama ..... reverse coattails.

[sfam]

22. If you change your OP title to "Obama can win" instead of "will go for" I'd agree with you...

but its clearly not a definitely thing, unless you put Warner on the ticket. With Warner there, its pretty much a done deal. The other two will help, but don't guarantee anything like Warner does.

But I absolutely agree that Obama "can win" VA without either of the three on the ticket. Its just not a sure thing by any means though.

[book_worm]

18. Still it would be good to have Webb or Warner just as an extra boost.