*** Hillary may suspend - BUT SHE WILL NOT CONCEDE. ****

[smalll]

Obama has “won” the primaries, but not by enough for certainty. If he were winning big, he would have enough pledged delegates alone to give him a majority at Denver. He’s only just winning: he needs a few hundred SuperDs to vote for him at Denver to capture the nomination on the first ballot. SuperDs have the inalienable right to change their minds. Let me repeat that: SuperDs have the inalienable right to change their minds.

So Hillary is not in the position people like Edwards, Richardson, (or even Romney or Huckabee) found themselves this year. She is close enough to have a chance at the Convention.

Barack Obama will move forward, now as the likely Democratic nominee. His campaign will advance to the General Election stage. He will travel the country, run ads, combat McCain, raise money for the General Election, etc. etc. The next two and a half months will, in essence, be his “probationary period” in this new position – he has the position, but not tenure in it yet. This is already happening – he is focusing on McCain, and more tellingly, McCain is focusing on him.

Hillary’s campaign now can enter into suspension. She has no money left – everyone knows this. But she doesn’t need campaign-style money anymore. All she needs is herself, her family, Harold Ickes, Mandy Grunwald, Terry McAuliffe, etc. etc. and a modest handful of other staff. It’s a shoestring operation. No more campaign travels needed, no more ads to run. All she and her handful of people need to do is keep in contact with the 700 plus SuperDs. Mostly just by picking up the phone.

By the end of August, Obama’s probationary period as nominee will come to an end. If he has campaigned well enough in the next two and a half months to look at least as plausible in November as he does now (hopefully he’ll look better by then in the polls - rebuilding support in places like Ohio, or solidifying signs of strength in places like Virginia or the West) he WILL win the nomination at Denver.

But if his electoral weaknesses grow, in this, the year the Democrats were supposedly destined to retake the White House – if his chances at victory in November fade away – enough SuperDs will switch away from Obama on the first ballot to vote for Hillary or to abstain.

Hillary can afford to suspend. It won’t really hurt Obama or delay the unfolding of the General Election campaign. All it does is keep our options open. And it only makes sense to do that.

[book_worm]

1. So what? Edwards just suspended his campaign too.

[JackORoses]

2. she is finished. try and wrap your smalll brain around that.

[Bicoastal]

3. Wonderful. All my favorites are crawling out of the woodwork...

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

4. You say "Potato"

It's the same thing. It's over.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

5. I've been waiting for your pronouncement on these matters.

:* :radio: :tv:

[scheming daemons]

6. Well... your whole post throws out the idea of her being the VP nominee.....

[The Stranger]

7. Delete post. Ban poster.

Let's move on.

[peacebird]

8. her not conceding WILL hurt us in the GE. It will prevent her devotees from supporting BO

They will keep hoping for her return and do everything possible to sabotage Obama. (Think the spectacle of Saturday...)

HRC must concede. It is time to s*t or get off the pot. She is either helping the Democratic Party fight for victory in November, or she is out for HERSELF.

[smalll]

12. Perhaps, but I think far more likely as a supsended Hillary returns to Chappaqua and the Senate

and as Barack contines campaigning and advertizing across the country, now in General Election mode, that over the next two and a half months, most Hillary supporters will warm up to Obama. Put it this way - when they get polled and Gallup or whoever asks them to choose between McCain and Obama, more and more of the Hillarites will say "Obama."

In some ways, this will be part of his probationary-period testing. I don't really think it will be the hardest part of it either.

[Independent-Voter]

14. Yep.

[Faygo Kid]

9. I guess that earlier poster won't have to shit a golden brick, then.

Good thing. Sounds painful.

[thoughtcrime1984]

10. Yup, just keep calling SDs all summer.

They'll love that, after all the phone calls they've already fielded. When Obama surpasses the number, he will be embraced as the presumptive nominee by most. Unity will not happen if Hillary is still pushing to swing hundreds of voters. I believe it is in her best interest to endorse Obama, campaign for him, and be a huge part of the big win in November.

[smalll]

15. That is a possibility - a massive swing by SuperDs to him this week -

it could happen - the vast majority of the remaining ones might declare for Obama, and a bunch of them might change from Hillary to Obama. But I doubt it will. I think most SuperDs will be happy to keep the Party's options open. It will be interesting to see what/how much change in the SuperD numbers we will have by the end of this week.

[jgraz]

11. Of course. Why should she start showing class now?

[tammywammy]

13. They "suspend" so that they can continue fund raising to pay off debts

But for all intents and purposes they're done with the campaign, i.e. John Edwards.

[Shakespeare]

16. Obama has not "won," he's WON. Period.

End of story, end of contest, end of primary season.

He WILL be the nominee in August, and he will be our president on January 20, 2009. Now let's get busy.

[smalll]

17. Kick. The wave of swoon hitting the board right now is premature. /nt

[snappyturtle]

23. Premature? Do you know something you're not telling us? n/t

[mudesi]

18. PLEDGED delegates can change their minds

Your OP is nothing more than sophistry.

[zulchzulu]

19. Just so you know, a concession speech is non-binding

Whatever happens, I wish her and her supporters well.

Let's keep the eye on the ball...

[mckeown1128]

20. Umm Edwards was only like 10 PDs away from Obama...

when he dropped out. Hillary is like 180 behind Obama.

[snappyturtle]

21. It is totally fitting to her campaign.....she is aggressively consistent. n/t

[TahitiNut]

22. Get off the stage, Hillary.

How many times does she have to be voted off the island?? :puke:

[RiverStone]

24. We are moving on - talk of last minute SuperD switcharoos will be...

...ancient history in a few hours.

Time to move on.

Lets put all out focus on beating McBush!

[oviedodem]

25. I have a funny feeling (I hope I am wrong) that something bad may happen.

[K Gardner]

29. Hillary.. is that you... ?

[Hansel]

26. Isn't there a law that if you end your campaign

before you pay your debts back that you lose the opportunity to rise the money to pay it off? I wouldn't expect her to do anything other than to just suspend her campaign at this point. But it would be nice for her to graciously acknowledge Obama's victory and get off the stage for awhile.

[MarjorieG]

27. Seems like waiting for it to weaken.

Remember that the Clinton name brand was an influence, and as much by the kitchen sink causing harm we will now have to undo. The GOP ad with Hillary's Commander in Chief threshold currently running. Numbers weren't always a fair indication of what Obama will do later.

Why can't Hillary and other help with groups they have strength with for the good of the presidency, the country, without these machinations, or extortion with a VP.

I am not eager for Bill to be walking the halls, and still more than mad that, by omission and commission, Bill gave us Bush both times.

[K Gardner]

28. His PROBATIONARY PERIOD.. ?? ROFLMAO !!! Get a grip.