Why John McCain is in trouble.

[Drunken Irishman]

Though polls have Obama leading McCain anywhere from 1 to 10%, we all know the popular vote does not give someone the presidency. So it'll come down to the electoral college and a trend is setting in that has to scare the John McCain camp. That trend, of course, is that Obama does increasingly better in what were once strong Republican states.

These states include:

Alaska
Indiana
Mississippi
Montana
North Carolina
North Dakota
South Carolina
Virginia

In Alaska, Obama trails by only 7 percentage points to McCain, even though Kerry lost this state in 2004 by 25%. In Indiana, the last poll there had Obama and McCain TIED. In Mississippi, the most recent poll there had Obama within 6 points (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/mississippi/election_2008_mississippi_presidential_election), while today Rasmussen released a poll in Montana that had Obama within 5, even though this state is traditionally Republican (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/montana/election_2008_montana_presidential_election). Polls have Obama either up or tied with McCain in Virginia, while within 10 of McCain in North Dakota and the Carolinas.

What does this all mean? Well I doubt Obama will take every one of these states, but it could throw McCain's election strategy off a bit. If Obama keeps this pace throughout the summer, it will force McCain to take money and time out of swing states and throw it to these states to keep them red. I don't think McCain will be able to compete with the Obama dollar machine, which means he needs every penny to keep from getting blown out in the electoral college.

Now in swing states, McCain isn't doing too well. Obama is beating him in New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada is extremely close -- had Kerry won all three of those states, even with an Ohio loss, he would've won the presidency. And, contrary to popular belief, Obama is winning Pennsylvania, which I think is a must if the Republicans want to win this election. The last Rasmussen poll there had Obama leading outside the MOE, so it is a significant margin for a swing state.

That leaves Ohio, basically the state McCain NEEDS to win in the fall and most polls have Obama barely leading there, even after the talk he couldn't win the primary and can't win the general there.

This is the electoral map as is by Electoral-Vote.Com



Now if you look at this map, you'll notice a few things. Firstly, McCain has far more soft support than Obama and that's exactly where Kerry sat 4 years ago. He had a ton of soft support entering the general, while Bush had solid support and by the time the election really hit its groove, Bush was able to chip at Kerry's soft support. I expect the same thing to happen this time around, but with Obama doing it toward McCain.

The electoral votes break down like this:

Strong GOP (133)(Dark Red)

Weak GOP (69) (Light Red)

Barely GOP (46) (Red Trim)

Exactly tied (24) (White)

Barely Dem (25) (Blue Trim)

Weak Dem (99) (Light Blue)

Strong Dem (142) (Dark Blue)

This shows me two things, Obama has far more STRONG DEMOCRATIC support than McCain does STRONG GOP support and McCain has too many electoral votes that are either BARELY GOP or WEAK GOP. The major concern for McCain has to be the fact that 46 electoral votes are barely GOP. That means he's barely hanging onto those and they could flip at any time. Compare that to Obama, who only has 25 electoral votes that are barely Dem. That's a difference of 21, or a margin that could've been the difference in both the 2000 and 2004 elections.

Is McCain toast? No, but the fact Obama is taking a hit from both the left and the right and McCain has pretty much been able to coast the past couple of months and still hasn't done much to move the polls should show there are some issues here with his campaign. I do not believe McCain is a strong campaigner and if he's forced into defending states that normally always go Republican, he's going to be in a lot of trouble.

[speedoo]

1. MCCain's not gonna win Wisconsin or Michigan.

Not when those folks see how clueless he is on the economy,

[Drunken Irishman]

2. I don't think so either and a new SurveyUSA poll has Obama winning Wisconsin.

[billyoc]

3. McCain has been campaigning for MONTHS and Obama hasn't even gotten started!

:rofl:

[AndyTiedye]

4. That Map Looks Really Grim For Us

I hope Obama can chip away at that, a lot, because that map looks really grim for us right now,
and the Swift Boaters are just getting started.

[Drunken Irishman]

5. The map has him 4 electoral votes of winning the election.

That's with giving McCain Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada, states Obama will probably carry.