Barack Obama's Map to 270 - 5/24/2008

[MadBadger]

This is how I see it as of now and I will update every so often.

[tekisui]

1. Looks good to me. I feel good about MO, and iffy about OH.

But, either way it is President Obama!

[Tribetime]

3. My thoughts too

[MadBadger]

4. I think soon, Colorado will no longer be a swing state

The Convention will provide a big bump for Obama there.

[grantcart]

2. but I have read several other threads that said he can't win the GE

and they seemed very certain of that fact.

[tekisui]

5. Oh yeah, they probably even confirmed it.

[grantcart]

6. survey USA just showed a poll with IN tied

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_downs_center_indiana_4283.php



also here is SC with McCain only +3
http://www.pollster.com/08-SC-Pres-GE-MvO.php

Nevada and N Dakota goes back and forth but is in play


http://www.pollster.com/08-NV-Pres-GE-MvO.php

http://www.pollster.com/08-ND-Pres-GE-MvO.php

[MadBadger]

7. I know all those states are in play and I wouldnt be surprised if he took some, especially NEvada

At the moment though, I like the prediction I have. Its not too safe, and not to overreaching IMO.

[FogerRox]

11. In '06 the Dems got a 60/40 split, in 64 Goldwater got 61/39

If we get another 60/40 split, McCain will not be winning 24 states as the OP describes. In '64 Goldwater won 8 states. I think its unrealistic to think McCain will lose like McGovern. Though I could see McCain getting from 8 to 15 states if the popular vote is 60/40.


Now if we improve on '06, maybe 62% or 63% of the vote, then the EC could be McCain=McGovern.

[NRaleighLiberal]

8. Wouldn't surprise me if NC went blue for this election.....NT

[RL3AO]

10. I'm confident it will.

[FogerRox]

12. '64 map, colors are flipped

And the vote was 61/39 for LBJ, but the Electoral College came out 90/10. In 2006 60% voted Dem. The OP Map is saying we regress from 2006, to maybe 53% to 47%. I just dont see it. I think the upside is McCain loses like McGovern, realistically McCain loses like Goldwater or worst case scenario, Dukakis.

[MadBadger]

16. Presidential Elections dont work the sameway as Congressional Ones

You are comparing Apples to Oranges.

[FogerRox]

27. Right, so what is the difference ?

The political pendulum was pushed to the right since 1981. About 2003 it stopped, and started swinging back to the left. That might blur the line 'tween apples and oranges. 4 million newly registered voters, building on the party gains & organizing structure of 2006, might blur the lines.

I would argue for higher voter turnout in Nov. Its the most important election since 1932.

Republicans are talking about having a 58/42 or 60/40 Senate in '09. Dems can pick up 30 to 50 House seats. If there is a strong congressional based turnout like in '06, again the line 'tween apples and oranges gets blurred. Does Obama have Coat tails ?


This is a strange and different year, I am willing to try to compare apples and oranges.

[Zynx]

34. Take 1958 compared to 1960. Democrats won huge in the Congressional elections in 1958

but yet barely squeaked it out in 1960.

[FogerRox]

42. Ok, but what was the political pendulem doing at that time?

compared to it reached an extreme right peak, stopped swinging right around 2003, and has been swinging back left since 2003.

And youre right in the sense that the congressionals that are 2 yrs before a presidential race, dont mean the presidential race will be similar.

So what does 1930 & 1932 look like ?

1930 say 51 dems win in the house:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_elections,_1930

In 1932 171 dems won
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections%2C_1932

[Blondiegrrl]

9. Awww, look at WV sticking out like a sore thumb.

I hate my state.

*sigh*

Lovely map, though!

[MadBadger]

19. But Your Best Friend Kentucky is there with you!

[Blondiegrrl]

53. Yee-haw!

[Name removed]

13. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Kittycat]

14. You just can't help yourself, can you?

Every fucking thread you post must lead to some racist comment or insinuation. You should be ashamed of yourself. Lord knows I'm ashamed of you.

[davidpdx]

20. Kitty, we can only wonder once this is over

if BD will get the same treatment one well known Hillary supporter is getting right now. We have 3 more days without that person thankgod.

[MadBadger]

15. Obama will not be able to Holla? God your pathetic

And whho the fuck cares if the repukes think they will win a landslide....Hillary still thinks she can win the nomination. They are in the same boat of denial.

[neverforget]

22. If you haven't noticed, the Republicans have lost 3 special elections in the last

month, the American people are taking it in the ass with gas prices, and McCain promises more war and more of the same economic BS as Bush. The Republicans are in deep shit this year. Karl Rove thought they were going to pick up seats in 2006 and they ended up losing seats in the House and Senate and didn't pick up one Democratic seat. The Republican brand is an albatross thanks to Bush and McCain has embraced Bush.

[Dark]

17. Ohio will go for McCain. Trust me, I live there.

We're second to Florida in craziness and stupidity.

[MadBadger]

18. Well, I'm not just going to trust you because you live there.

Nothing against you or anything.

[mcctatas]

21. My 81 year old grandma has lived there all her life...

she said until the past month or so she thought she was the only democrat in Hilliard, but now she sees Obama bumperstickers everywhere. And she's much more lucid than mccain so I trust her;)

[FogerRox]

28. Ohio didnt vote for Goldwater in 1964, neither did Florida.

[muryan]

49. Not if I have anything to do with it

Me and hundreds of my peers are going to make sure that McCain doesn't get a free ride in this state. (I live in OH too)

[4_Legs_Good]

23. I'd like to put IN and MO in our column too

And I'd LOVE to see AK and TX go blue. Oooh, how sweet that would be.

David

[MadBadger]

24. AK will stay red, unless maybe Clinton is on the ticket

And I dont care enough about AK to do that.

[4_Legs_Good]

25. What if we put Gravel on the ticket???!?!?!?!?!

He could win the senior vote even better than McCain, he's a helluva lot funnier and he could deliver Alaska!!!

I dunno, Alaska is just such a beautiful state, I hate to see it in the grasp of Republicans for so long. Same is true with Idaho, but I don't see that changing.

And since I don't think Clinton would help in AK, maybe you thought I meant ARkansas, which I agree with you on.

David

[MadBadger]

26. I so didnt process the AK. I was thinking Arkansas.

AK could be in play, but I'm not sold yet on a one or two polls.

[FogerRox]

29. Went for LBJ over Goldwater in '64

[Zynx]

33. Alaska used to be a swing state. That changed over time.

In 1960, both Alaska and Hawaii were close. Same in 1968.

[Aloha Spirit]

30. This is what victory will look like:

[Zynx]

32. We would win Tennessee before we'd win Wyoming, Idaho, or Utah.

[MadBadger]

37. And we'd win Montana, Alaska, North Dakota before we win TN

[Zynx]

31. I agree. This is a sober, realistic map. This isn't like the garbage some have with him carrying GA.

VA is very doable. People there are pissed at Bush.

[NJSecularist]

35. This is within the realm of possibility.

Although I think he'll lose the election, this is a fairly realistic map for his best case scenario, and at least you don't have him winning states like Mississippi or Georgia or Montana.

I do not think he'll win Virginia, however.

[MadBadger]

36. Dont put Montana in the same category as MS and GA

I dont think MT will go dem, but it will be much closer there than in MS and probably GA.

[Phx_Dem]

38. Yep

I definitely wouldn't write off NV, MS, or GA. Also, IN and maybe MO.

McCain is toast. I truly do not believe it's going to be close. It's gonna be really ugly, but what else is new. Ugly is the only way Repugs know how to politic. I think the Independents and a few Republicans are gonna say "not this time." Alot of people, including some Repugs, are sick of the bullshit. So bring it on old man.

Edited to add: I intended to reply to the original post. Sorry Hnmnf. Also, to clarify the reason I think MS and/or GA may be in play . . .

1. Both states have HUGE AA populations. AA's will come out in full force to support Obama.

2. Both states have a large population of white evangelical/reglious voters. The problem for McCain is that this voter group is very disillusioned with Bush and they don't like John McCain so they may decide to stay home. Evangelical voters are notorious for voting their conscious. If a candidate pisses them off or simply fails to energize them (e.g. suck up), they punish them by staying home. McCain's already losing support among conservative Republicans.


(Mrs. Phx_Dem)

[Gore1FL]

39. You could take OH out of the mix and he still wins.

AK might go blue, as might MT, NC and SC. FL will be close as will TX, ND and IN. MO could go blue, NE may provide 2 out of 5 electors.

[MadBadger]

40. I'm fairly confident that SC will go red

We only saw one poll and it was awhile ago out of SC. I t hink ulimately it will go to McCain by 12.

[Gore1FL]

41. A lot depends on GOTV

A good ground game could swerve it into our column. I like the chances of it going blue more than NC.

The bottom line is McCain is going to be on the defense in what should be solid red states. Obama should be able to adequatley shore up the blue states and make inroads elsewhere.

[Zynx]

47. SC is a phenomenally red state. Bush won it by 17 or 18. It's not a swing state by any definition.

[Gore1FL]

48. But is is very heavily African American

who have in the past not voted in large numbers. An argument could be made for MS too. Any place that theOabama doesn;t win, but McCain still has to work for is a good thing. SC is closer than many think.

[Zynx]

55. African Americans vote pretty close to their share of the population in SC and MS.

We still fall woefully short.

[dbmk]

43. Intrade map

This is how the map looks to the people putting their money where their mouth is at Intrade.com.

States trading in the 40-60 range put as undecided.

[MadBadger]

44. Same as mine, except i gave NH and VA to Obama

[kentuck]

45. I would add NC, LA, NV, and MT to those states...

Also, I think you are correct about OH. If he can win PA, which the last poll showed him up by 6% points, then he can also win OH. FL is a tossup but we don't want to get too optimistic.

[Zynx]

46. I very much doubt Louisiana until I see some hard evidence on that.

[MadBadger]

51. I'm holding off on those states until I see a poll showing him ahead.

[muryan]

50. I honestly think he has a way better shot in MO

than people are giving him credit for. Borderering Iowa and Illinois, plus it was one of the states where he truly surprised the Hillary campaign by winning.

[kevin881]

52. He will take Georgia. -nt

[Zynx]

56. Not unless he is winning by 12 nationwide he won't.

[FlyingSquirrel]

54. Pretty close to my current map:

Hoping to see Nevada in our column, as well as Ohio, New Hampshire and of course all the rest that we both have colored blue. Missouri is an important bellweather state and it should be very strongly contested. I don't see Virginia being ours at the moment but it could happen by November. Would certainly be nice to be giving McCain a run for his money in Florida.