Forget Ohio and Florida: NV/NM, IA, CO

[lsusteel]

Our easiest way into the White House with Obama. He leads in all four states and our primaries aren't even over yet. NV and NM are interchangeable due to the fact they have the same # of EVs. Wisconsin and Michigan are key as well, but Wisconsin has gone Dem since 1988 and Michigan has gone Dem since 92.

If we use Kerry's map, this makes it a 269-269 tie (assuming we lose NH)

In a tie, Dems win.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/like-kissing-your-sister.html


Of course he could just flip Ohio from Kerry's map (275-263 when you factor in losing NH), but Ohio is not as important this year as it has been in the past two elections due to the other states Obama puts in play. Florida is even less important this year. Unlike the past two cycles, Obama has multiple legitimate paths (another one includes flipping Missouri, where he only trails by 3 in the most recent SUSA poll)


Just keep this in mind before going chicken little when you see polls with Obama trailing in FL and OH.

While Hillary may be performing better in the typical battlegrounds and has a better chance to win along the conventional path (Flipping OH and/or Florida from Kerry's map), Obama puts more states in play meaning our election hopes don't hinge on one or two states (which is easier for the Republicans to combat).

[LSparkle]

1. Exactly -- she may *win* playing the OLD GAME but this year ...

it'll be a WHOLE NEW GAME, with a new map, new target voters.

We can all agree that she can play the OLD GAME better than
Obama ... We just don't want to play that game THIS TIME.

[lsusteel]

2. The Republicans LOVE the old game

When they know the hopes of the Dems are pinned on Florida and Ohio, where do you think 90% of their money and time goes?

If there are multiple paths, they must spread out. They become diluted.

[LSparkle]

9. Precisely! If we start changing the rules on them, they're going to be

flummoxed ... Obama has already changed the way Democratic
primaries will be run from this point forward; he's the
right candidate for our party to play a DIFFERENT GAME
this time out.

[featherman]

3. Again... why on earth would anybody think we lose Ohio this year?

Ohio:

a terribly run Kerry campaign barely lost to a sitting President whose popularity still ranked over 50% at the time

In 2000 and 2004 the Governor and state apparatus was all GOP including the vote cheat Ken Blackwell running the elections

Now it is all Democratic and the state GOP is in total disarray. Governor Taft(R)left office with an approval rating below 7%.

MI, PA, OH are now Dem states and will all vote Dem this year.

[lsusteel]

5. I'm not saying we will or won't

I'm simply saying that unlike the past few elections, the hopes of the Dems do not lie solely with OH and FL.

Multiple paths = bigger battlefield = Republicans can't concentrate on one state and expect to win.

[SoCalDem]

4. and PA & yes.. even Michigan is "expendable"..map

This map presumes that Alaska is finally DONE with their criminal republican overlords,, and that Paul & Barr stay in the race.. I added LA because landrieu is polling well and people down there are pretty pissed at Bush still..

[SoCalDem]

6. and if he picks Napolitano, we snatch AZ away from McCain too..deeee-lish .. n/t

[lsusteel]

7. Where do you make that map?

Better than the site I was using...

[SoCalDem]

8. Here's the link.. it's super easy & fun to play around with

You will have to do a screen cap & past to crop & save it..

I use www.irfanview.com (it's free & easy)


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/

[HCE SuiGeneris]

14. Damn that map looks tasty!

Yumm.

[SoCalDem]

15. and do-able.. The contiguous nature of the "new states" and the smallness of them

are a perfect fit for Obama.. Iowa & Missouri are his neighbors... Alaska is ripe for the picking..Virginia is possible with Webb's help.. Colorado is ready to flip, and Richardson will help there..

The small bits of Nebraska are possible too.. and if Barr & Paul are in it, we might add Georgia too..

and I GAVE Mc Cain NH...and is Oh, MI, PA, or FL want to join in the fun, then welcome home, people :)

[Bok_Tukalo]

10. Why do you think a tie goes to the Democrat?

<OPE>

[lsusteel]

11. Because...

It's all at the link I gave in my OP

1. The incoming (newly-elected) House votes on the President. But they don't take a straight up or down vote. Instead, each state's delegation gets a vote. So California, which has 53 representatives, gets one vote based on what a majority of those representatives decide. Delaware, which has just one representative, also gets one vote. In order to win the Presidency, a candidate must receive the votes of an outright majority of 26 state delegations. This is more difficult than you might think, because delegations with an even number of members can be split, and a couple probably will be -- right now Arizona has four Republican representatives and four Democratic ones, for instance.

2. If no candidate receives a majority of the House delegations, the House is supposed to continue voting until one does. But naturally, the Constitution provides for a default option if the House is unable to come to agreement. That is because the incoming Senate votes on the Vice President, and the Vice President becomes the acting President if no President is chosen by the House by Inauguration Day.

3. A tie is also possible in the Senate, since the outgoing Vice President (Dick Cheney) does not get a vote under the 12th Amendment. In fact, if the Senate held such a vote today, a tie would be somewhat likely, assuming that Bernie Sanders voted with the Democrats and Joe Lieberman voted for John McCain. If the House hasn't picked a President and the Senate hasn't picked a Vice President, succession defaults to the Speaker of the House ... which means we'd have President Pelosi.

The Democrats are either certain or very likely to have the majorities in 22 of the state delegations. Another three delegations lean their way, while three others are toss-ups. Most likely, we are looking at their holding somewhere between 25 and 28 delegations -- though maybe as many as 30-32 if they have a particularly good day (Cook's ratings arguably look too pessimistic for the Democrats in light of the recent special elections).

The Republicans look to have a much tougher time in getting to their magic number of 26 delegations. If they win all their states plus all the toss-ups plus all the Democratic-leaning states, that still only gets them to 25 because the best they can realistically do in Mississippi, New Hampshire and Wisconsin is to salvage a tie. And keep in mind that this scenario requires that something has gone horribly wrong for the Democrats -- in which case Barack Obama will probably have been crushed by John McCain rather than tied him.

[Bok_Tukalo]

12. Thanks for the info

<POE>

[catgirl]

13. Plus he may add a southern state!