How Obama can win the GE.

[Hell Hath No Fury]

As a default Obama supporter, I have had my worries about him in the GE, especially with some of the recent contests where voters appeared (according to exit polls and interviews) to be making a choice based much on race. I always knew it would be a major issue for some voters, but didn't expect it to be prominent among so many Democratic voters.

With that said, I do believe Obama can win the GE -- it comes down to an energized Democratic electorate and a depressed/divided Republican electorate.

GE Campaign Givens:

- Aggressive 527 attacks on Obama on behalf of McCain
- RW media (Faux, Limbaugh, et al) pushing the day's McCain campaign memo
- The use of race, terrorism scare tactics, magically appearing bin Laden tapes, Wright, flag pins, charges of inexperience -- a true "kitchen sink"
- A portion of Dems who choose to sit out the race due to the candidate
- A portion of Independents/conservative Dems who vote GOP

We've been down this road before with our candidates -- and no Democratic candidate would have been immune from just such tactics. Mother Theresa herself could have run and the GOP would have found 101 ways to slime her -- that is just how they roll.

I want to add in one more factor that is somewhere between a "given" and a "possibility,' depending on your feelings on the matter.

- Electronic vote tampering

From my thinking this may or may not come into play in this election -- I'll tell you why later.

In our favor, we have a highly motivated Democratic electorate:

- high turnout due to the historic nature of the election (first AA President)
- high turnout for the purely political need to beat the GOP and change the course of the country

Also in our favor, we have a depressed/divided Republican electorate:

- McCain does not connect with much of the GOP base, nor does he inspire confidence or hope in the other segments of Republicans -- the 2000 McCain so many liked no longer exists
- the current GOP administration has no coattails for McCain to ride into office -- Bush has major cooties and McCain can only use him sparingly and under certain circumstances
- Bob Barr and Ron Paul play spoilers and pull potential McCain votes

If truth be told, I think the GOP machine knows they are saddled with a dog of a candidate at a time the GOP brand is mud, and have all but written off the 2008 election. That is one reason I have a small doubt electronic vote tampering will play a part in this election -- I am not sure they will go to the trouble under the current circumstances. I think their plan is to look to 2012 and hope the Dem who gets elected screws up.

So, the 2008 election will be a replay of the 1996 Presidential election -- a younger, more vibrant and hopeful candidate who speaks inspiringly vs. "Mr. Wilson".

Even with so much in our favor, I think this is going to be one of the hardest campaigns the Dems have run in a very long time. If the stars are aligned just right, I think Obama can pull it off.

And before anyone posts the response "That is why Clinton should be the candidate!", I think she would have an even tougher time in the GE against McCain -- just far too much history for the GOP to play with, and a sure fire way to energize and coalesce a dispirited base.