The math in plain numbers:

[ButterflyBlood]

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/29/delegate.counter/index.html

Now enter in these numbers for each remaining contest (which seem reasonable)

Kentucky 34-17 Hillary
Oregon 29-23 Obama
Montana 9-7 Obama
South Dakota 8-7 Obama
Puerto Rico 31-24 Hillary

Then use the superdelegate bar to find out what percentage of superdelegates Hillary needs (and conversely how many more Obama needs.) Truth can hurt, huh?

[Tatiana]

1. Why does everyone have Clinton winning Puerto Rico?

I think she's going to lose there, too.

[deadmessengers]

2. So far, she's done VERY well with Latino voters. n/t

[Avalux]

8. One can't assume Puerto Ricans will vote as American Latino voters did.

Ethnic Groups of Puerto Rico:

White 80% (Most are of Spanish heritage)

Black 8%;

Amerindian 0.4%;

Asian 0.2%;

mixed and other 10.9%

Of course I fully expect Hillary to tell them she will make Puerto Rico a state if elected as she did Guam; so that may help her a bit. :eyes:

[Tatiana]

10. As a puerto rican latina, I can certainly say that Obama has strong support in PR.

My aunt replays some of his rallies at a community center in Ponce and literally hundreds show up to watch.

They are very receptive to the message of change.

Also, Puerto Ricans have not forgotten about Vieques

Clinton Proposes Concessions On
Navy Training; Puerto Rico Says 'No'
Updated 8.25 p.m. ET (0125 GMT) December 3, 1999

AP- WASHINGTON — President Clinton said Friday that Navy bombing practice on the Puerto Rican island of Vieques would resume next spring at a sharply reduced level and only with dummy bombs. He offered Puerto Rico $40 million to go along with the plan, which includes phasing out all training on the island within five years. Puerto Rican Gov. Pedro Rossello quickly rejected the plan, leaving the Navy with no assurance it will ever regain full use of its "crown jewel" of training ranges. Rossello's resistance also raised questions about what Clinton would do if protesters who are camped out on the bombing range refuse to leave next spring.

Clinton's plan would mean that for the next five years the Navy and Marines would train only with "inert," or dummy, bombs on Vieques instead of the live ammunition that is part of advanced combat training.

After that, the Navy would get out of Vieques altogether. But even those concession were too little, Rossello said.

A visibly disappointed Rossello told reporters in San Juan, "Personally I feel deceived with the position that's been taken because it doesn't faithfully reflect what we have been discussing with the president."

<snip>

Puerto Ricans have long objected to the Navy's practice bombing on Vieques, but the controversy boiled over after a civilian security guard was killed by an errant bomb in April. The Navy then suspended training on Vieques but has sought a way to resume it.

No sooner had Pentagon officials spelled out publicly the details of Clinton's plan than Rossello rejected it. The governor, a staunch Clinton ally who supports making Puerto Rico the 51st U.S. state, told a news conference in San Juan he could accept no arrangement that included a resumption of Navy training on Vieques.

Rossello called Clinton's plan "unacceptable for the people of Puerto Rico and the people of Vieques." He added, however, that he was willing to continue talks in hopes of finding a mutually acceptable solution.

The dispute presents Clinton with a tricky challenge: to try to win back Puerto Rican support for the Navy without making so many concessions that the Navy and Marine Corps cannot train adequately.

http://www.vieques-island.com/navy/clinton.html

[AllentownJake]

3. We give the pessimistic numbers

So that we can't be accused of biasing them for Obama.

[ButterflyBlood]

5. I'm giving her a good scenario

Just to show how overwhelmingly difficult it is even in such a scenario.

[MercutioATC]

4. If Clinton wins every remaining race by 42 points (71-29)...INCLUDING superdelegates...

...Obama still breaks 2025.

[rox63]

6. I think Obama will have larger victory margins in OR, MT and SD

He has consistently done very well in mountain west states.

[ButterflyBlood]

7. He might, but I'm making this a decent scenario for Hillary

Basically giving her as good as she can do without Obama eating live babies on national TV.

[mohc]

9. Obama does not need even one more "automatic delegate"

Obama is currently about 112 delegates shy of the 2025 needed to secure the nomination. Obama is likely to gain at least 90 more pledged delegates by the final contest (your pessimistic numbers were at 87). Other than the automatic superdelegates, there are the add-on delegates elected by the state delegations to the national conventions. These add-on superdelegates have tended to break to the winner of that state as the winner's delegates make up the majority of the delegations. Based on the results and likely results, Obama will take at least 25 of these add-on delegates. Without even a single automatic superdelegates endorsing him between now and June 3rd, he will cross the 2025 mark. And of course we know there are some "Pelosi Club" delegates that he is going to pick up to pad his lead.

[briv1016]

11. Even with an 85-15 split of all remaining primaries and a 60-40 split of the supers

Obama wins 2015-2026. And that doesn't count the add-ons from yesterday or the 3 supers from today. :bounce: